Latest Heartland Index Shows Slowing Trade

Creighton University economics professor Ernie Goss is reporting stagnant trade growth in the Midwest. Economists say it’s another sign the nation’s economy is slowing.

Goss’ Heartland International Business Index, a measure of international trade from nine Midwestern states including Arkansas, is a snapshot of his national index that’s recognized by the U.S. Federal Reserve as a leading economic indicator. Goss prepares the Midwest version for the Heartland International Business Alliance — of which the International Trade Council of Northwest Arkansas is a member organization.

According to an April 6 release from HIBA, the Midwest has recorded 12-straight months of neutral growth. The layman’s version of Goss’ findings is the Midwest hasn’t fallen totally off normal trade levels, but it isn’t setting the world on fire.

Every month, Goss surveys 1,700 purchasing managers at companies in Arkansas, Missouri, Kansas, Oklahoma, Nebraska, Iowa, Minnesota and North and South Dakota. He establishes a trend line for their new import and export orders, and a rating of 50 indicates new growth. Anything below 50 indicates stale to decreasing trade.

The entire region’s latest Heartland Index rating is a 43.4, an all-time low since 1996 when the measure was first taken. Arkansas had the lowest rating of all nine states at 25, but HIBA chairman Fred Baecher said the actual rating are less important than the fact they’re under 50.

“The important information is that 12-straight months of stagnant growth indicates a downturn in the Midwestern economy,” said Baecher, who’s ad hoc organization is based in Kansas City, Mo.