ArcBest filing notes ‘ongoing softness’ in the U.S. freight sector

An early look at ArcBest’s first quarter activity suggests that too much capacity and not enough demand continues to result in freight-sector “softness” being a challenge for the Fort Smith-based shipping and logistics company.

ArcBest is the parent company of ABF Freight, one of nation’s largest less-than-truckload (LTL) carriers, and a logistics operation that includes Panther Premium Logistics.

In a Friday (March 6) filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, ArcBest reported that billed revenue per hundredweight, a key metric in the LTL industry, was down 5% in the first two months of the quarter. Billed revenue per day was up 1%, and the number of shipments per day were up 1%. Tonnage per day was up 6%.

The increase in daily tonnage compared with the billed revenue per hundredweight reflects the ongoing struggle in the broader trucking sector to raise rates.

The company said revenue per shipment was down 1% because of the lower revenue per hundredweight, which was partially impacted by lower fuel surcharge revenue. The federal filing notes that the first quarter operating ratio may be less than historical trends.

“Historically, ABF’s non-GAAP operating ratio increases by approximately 260 basis points from the fourth quarter to the first quarter,” the company noted. “We currently expect our first quarter operating ratio to increase approximately 100 to 200 basis points sequentially, an improvement relative to typical seasonality, due in part to a softer-than-normal fourth quarter, while still reflecting ongoing softness across the industry.”

ArcBest expects revenue in its asset-light segment to produce quarterly operating income of around $2 million. The company said daily revenue rose 10% between January and February, and revenue per shipment was up 3%.

The consensus estimate of analysts who cover ArcBest is that the company will have first quarter net income of 19 cents per share, which would be below the 51 cents per share in the first quarter of 2025. The revenue estimate is $984.09 million, which would be above the $967.077 million in the first quarter of 2025.

The early first quarter look follows 2025 revenue and income declines. ArcBest adjusted net income for the full year was $84.8 million, down 51.2% compared with $173.961 million in 2024. Revenue in 2025 was $4.01 billion, down 4% compared with $4.179 billion in 2024.

ABF had 2025 operating income of $171.995 million, down from $242.603 million in 2024. Revenue in the segment was $2.734 million, down 0.5% compared with $2.75 million in 2024. The asset-light segment posted a $15.261 million loss in 2025, below the $58.444 million gain in 2024. Asset-light revenue in 2025 was $1.407 million, down from $1.552 million in 2024.

Founded in 1923, ArcBest has around 14,000 employees at 250 locations. ArcBest shares (NASDAQ: ARCB) closed Friday at $93.28, down $6.43. During the past 52 weeks the share price has ranged between $55.19 and $112.92.

Most equity markets were trading lower Friday because of a broad risk sentiment around rising global energy prices, and subsequent economic harm, related to U.S. and Israeli military actions against Iran. The Nasdaq on Friday was down 1.6%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average declined by 1%. The Nasdaq Transportation Index on Friday was down 4%, with the markets worried that shipping and logistics companies may be hit with a double whammy of higher fuel prices and less freight demand.

Also on Friday, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that nonfarm payroll declined by an estimated 92,000 jobs in February, with the jobless rate pegged at 4.4%, up from 4.2% in February 2025. The BLS also reported that December job gains were revised from a 48,000 gain to a loss of 17,000 jobs.