Valentine’s Day spending estimated to top $27.5 billion

Consumers could spend $188.81 per person on Valentine’s Day this year for a record $27.5 billion, up 6.5% from a year ago, according to the National Retail Federation (NRF). The trade group estimates that 56% of U.S. consumers plan to make a purchase, up from 53% last year.

Men are more likely to celebrate the holiday with 55% saying they plan to make a purchase, above the 51% of men in last year’s survey.

“Whether they are celebrating a significant other or someone else in their lives, Valentine’s Day is meaningful for many people,” said Katherine Cullen, NRF’s head of industry and consumer insights. “Consumers are looking for special ways to treat their loved ones and can expect retailers to provide the best gift options and deals.”

NRF’s estimates are not adjusted for inflation and while some items are cheaper this year, chocolate, a mainstay for Valentine’s Day, is more pricey. NRF estimates that 56% of consumers will spend a combined $2.5 billion on candy. Cocoa bean prices on the international exchange have risen by over 180% which prompted candy makers to raise prices and shrink package sizes. Since Halloween, candy maker Hershey has made more products that do not contain cocoa and raised prices for chocolate confections. Hershey kisses prices are up 12% over the past year. Lindt chocolate truffles cost 9% more than a year ago.

NRF also expects 40% of consumers will spend a combined $2.9 billion on flowers, on par with a year ago. Greeting cards are still big business with 40% of consumers who will spend $1.4 billion. Also, 35% of respondents intend to do spend a total of $5.4 billion on eating at a restaurant, and 22% said they will purchase jewelry, which could total $6.5 billion, on par with a year ago.

NRF said total spending on significant others is expected to reach a record of $14.6 billion, up from last year’s record $14.2 billion. Total spending on gifts for family members is projected to reach $4.3 billion, up from $4 billion in 2024 and in line with 2020’s record of $4.2 billion.

One-third (32%) of consumers also plan to purchase gifts for friends this Valentine’s Day, up from 28% last year and the highest in the survey’s history. Another 19% expect to purchase gifts for co-workers, up from 16% in 2024.

“Consumers plan to celebrate Valentine’s Day through a variety of ways to show appreciation and love for the many different people around them,” said Phil Rist, Prosper Insights & Analytics executive of strategy. “Purchasing gifts for those outside of significant others or family members continues to rise in popularity and reflects consumers’ growing interest in celebrating all the meaningful relationships in their lives.”

A separate survey by Numerator found 64% of respondents plan to celebrate Valentine’s Day, up from 60% in 2024. Numerator also found Valentine’s Day is the most popular holiday for going out to eat with 42% of respondents planning to do so. About one in four will cook at home, and 14% plan to order food for takeout or delivery.

On the flip side, WalletHub reports 39% of consumers will not celebrate the holiday and 34% said they won’t purchase a gift for their significant other this year. WalletHub found that 36% of respondents said they expect gifts of some kind, but not costing more than $49. One in four expect their significant other to spend up to $100, and just 7% expect a gift costing more than $100.

WalletHub also said 6 million marriage proposals will be made on Valentine’s Day, 18% of singles say they will go to a bar hoping to meet someone on Valentine’s Day, and pet owners are estimated to spend $1.7 billion on Valentine’s Day for their pets.