Retail import volumes spike ahead of tariff increases 

Retailers are importing more goods this summer, and major container ports are expected to set a record ahead of Trump administration tariff increases coming later this month, and ahead of gathering inventory for the holiday shopping season.

“Import volumes have risen sharply, with strong growth likely continuing into July,” said Ben Hackett, founder of Hackett Associates. “Much of this increase reflects frontloading ahead of expected tariff increases.”

The temporary 10% Section 122 global tariffs that took effect in February are set to expire July 24, but a new round of tariffs regarding forced labor is expected to be imposed by the Trump administration as early as August.

“This year’s early peak season is expected to continue through July as retailers and other importers prepare for potentially higher tariffs beginning in August and other trade uncertainties,” said Jonathon Gold, vice president of supply chain at the National Retail Federation. “The busy back-to-school selling season has already started, and the winter holidays won’t be far behind, so retailers have been working to get products into the U.S. and ready to go before new tariffs can potentially drive prices higher. Despite ongoing economic headwinds, consumers are continuing to spend, but affordability is a key factor affecting their spending habits.”

U.S. ports covered by Hackett’s Global Port Tracker handled 2.24 million containers in May, the latest month for which final numbers are available. That was up 14.9% from a year earlier, when imports were down sharply because of Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs, and up 10.1% from April.

Ports have not yet reported June numbers, but Global Port Tracker projected the month at 2.33 million containers, up 18.7% year over year. That would bring the first half of 2026 to 12.77 million containers, up 2% from the same period in 2025.

July is forecast at 2.47 million containers, which would be up 3.3% from last year and would top the previous monthly record of 2.4 million containers set in May 2022 as the economy bounced back from the pandemic.

Imports are expected to drop to 2.22 million containers in August, down 4.5% year over year. September is forecast at 1.99 million containers, down 5.7% year over year. October volume is expected to be down 3.8%, and down 5.2% in November.

Hackett reports that the May through July import volumes are expected to be the highest of the year. The peak season, which historically centered around October, has moved up in recent years amid labor disputes and tariffs.