Talk Business Poll: Boozman has big lead; Beebe’s lead surprisingly narrow

The newest Talk Business Poll shows U.S. Rep. John Boozman with a 25-point lead over U.S. Sen. Blanche Lincoln, and shows Gov. Mike Beebe with just a 9-point lead over GOP challenger Jim Keet.

“Our latest Talk Business Poll is likely to get the water cooler talk started about this fall’s general election match-ups for U.S. Senate and Arkansas Governor,” Roby Brock noted in his report on the new poll.

The poll was conducted July 17 among 793 likely Arkansas voters by Washington, D.C.-based Zata 3.

Brock tells The City Wire he was initially surprised by the poll results — especially by the narrow lead Beebe had over Keet. Brock, who expects criticism of the poll results, noted the following about the poll.

“To critics, who were abundant in our primary (election) polling with Zata 3, I remind you that we predicted accurately that Boozman was in a position to win the 8-person GOP primary without a run-off, which he did. We were also the first poll that showed conservative Democrat D.C. Morrison with a double-digit standing in the Democratic primary. He finished with 12% of the primary vote statewide,” Brock noted in this report. “The poll we release today from Saturday is similar to a poll we conducted on Thursday, July 15, 2010. When parsing through the initial results of the earlier poll, I asked for a second poll to be conducted with the same universe of likely voters to make certain that these results could be substantiated. I stand by that decision and these results.”

U.S. SENATE
Polling results for the U.S. Senate race between Republican Boozman and Democrat Lincoln were as follows:
John Boozman (R) — 57%
Blanche Lincoln (D) — 32%
Trevor Drown (Independent) — 3%
John Gray (Green Party) — 2%
Undecided — 6%



Brock, who said the election won’t finish with the same margins as this initial poll, offered the following analysis.

• Boozman has a strong lead in this race if for no other reason but for the anti-incumbent, anti-Lincoln sentiment that exists in the state’s current political landscape.

• Lincoln’s fundraising advantage — $1.9 million to Boozman’s $484,000 — is a good step for her to make this race more competitive, but she will also have to find ways to define Boozman negatively, something we’ve seen signs of in recent weeks.

GOVERNOR
Polling results for the gubernatorial race between Democrat Beebe and Republican Keet were as follows:
Mike Beebe (D) — 49.5%
Jim Keet (R) — 40.5%
Undecided — 10%



Brock’s analysis suggests the poll “will no doubt enthuse the campaign of GOP nominee Jim Keet. It shows that despite Gov. Mike Beebe’s high job approval rating, it does not translate into job security with voters.”



Continuing, Brock noted: “We’ll see if this race tightens or widens in the coming months.  Beebe’s massive fundraising advantage — $2.7 million to Keet’s $59,000 as of June 30 — is going to quickly put more distance between the two candidates unless other circumstances surface.


Link here for more details and analysis from Brock on this early look at the two high-profile races.