Tolbert: Six Takeaways From Cooper’s Big Win

Tuesday night, Republican John Cooper not only won the special election in Senate District 21 to replace former Sen. Paul Bookout, but he won in a blowout.  With 4,314 votes, Cooper finished 15 points ahead of Democrat Steve Rockwell who pulled in 3,227 votes.  He also won 17 out of the 21 voting precincts.  So being the blogger that I am, let’s play Monday morning quarterback and talk about what this means.

 1. Northeast Arkansas is Turning Red – Cooper’s win is yet another sign that Arkansas is steadily turning red and the shift in northeast Arkansas is a huge reason why.  It began to a large degree in 2010 when Congressman Rick Crawford won the open Congressional race by around 9 points becoming the first Republican in modern times to hold the seat. In 2012, a few more state senate and state representative districts flipped, while several Democratic incumbents barely held on.  Northeast Arkansas – home of Blanche Lincoln and Marion Berry – has historical been a conservative Democratic stronghold.  The shift here is bad news for all Democratic statewide candidates.

2. Republican Pick Ups Are More Likely in Open Races – One thing we saw in 2012 is that incumbents still tend to be re-elected.  This is part of the reason the Republicans did not perform better in the House winning the majority with only 51 seats.  Many Democratic incumbents held their seats albeit by narrow margins. We also saw this in 2010 when Republicans won every open constitutional office where they fielded a candidate. Cooper’s win was an open race where the generic Republican advantage had a huge impact.  It seems conservative voters are finally shifting to the Republican Party.

3. No Coattails for the Still Popular Beebe – As much as many Republicans hate to admit it, Gov. Mike Beebe is still popular.  Republican consultants for Cooper polled the race and found that 63% of voters in SD21 have a favorable opinion of Beebe while only 23% have a unfavorable opinion.  So a major endorsement with an ad campaign from a sitting governor with a 40+ favorability rating would have to help – right? Nope, although Rockwell spent money highlighting the endorsement with television and newspaper ads, it was not enough.  This news has to be especially troubling for 2014 candidates who hoped to capitalize on Beebe’s popularity.  While this may help some, the coattails are not enough.

4. The Bookout Scandal was Bigger Than the Darr Scandal –  Judging by the results, the steady barrage of bad headlines for Republican Lt. Gov. Mark Darr had no impact on the race.  This is interesting especially considering the entire election occurred as the resignation story unfolded.  Last week during early voting, the pressure for Darr to resign or be impeached grew until he finally announced his resignation over the weekend before the election.  But scandal did not bleed down to the race.  However, the Impact poll does seem to suggest that Bookout’s scandal might have had some impact.  Bookout’s favorability rating was a minus 36- points, a roughly 76 point swing compared to Beebe.  Of course, correlation does not necessarily equal causation, but at the same time all politics in local. (Two cliches that apply.)

5. With Money, It’s About Having Enough Not the Most – Rockwell outspent Cooper by a more than 3 to 1 margin ($230k v. $70k) and still lost.  While it would be easy to write this off as money does not matter, that is not the full truth.  What matters is that Cooper raised and wisely spent enough money to run a good campaign.  Cooper raised enough to hire a top quality political consultant like Chase Dugger and to run a strong enough ad campaign that turned out his voters.  Sure, Cooper’s grassroots played a big factor, but the fact that he raised enough for a strong campaign was essential. At the same time, the law of diminishing returns eventually kicks in where the additional dollars don’t really make as much of a difference. (cc: the Mike Ross and Mark Pryor campaigns.)

6. The Private Option is Trouble – The Arkansas legislature passed the private option medicaid expansion last time with only 1 extra vote in the Senate.  One of those votes was Bookout. Cooper is clearly against the private option and made voting against the continued funding of the program a centerpiece of his campaign. (I will note that the Impact poll is mixed as to whether voters agree.  The poll found 32% had an unfavorable view of the private option compared to 67% who had an unfavorable view of ObamaCare.) That means PO supporters cannot afford to lose a single vote for funding in the upcoming fiscal session or else they will have to pick up one of the no votes.  This is made even more difficult by the impact of the primary season right after the fiscal session.  In fact, candidate filing, which begins February 24, will be taking place in the capital rotunda while the legislature is likely voting on the funding for the PO just up the marble staircase.  Supporters will have to resell the Private Option all over again.

Overall, the win is good news for Republicans.  It is a sign that the reddening of the state that started in 2010 is only growing stronger.  The upcoming 2014 election promises to be another good year for Republicans that could solidify the party’s control of Arkansas politics. That is if they can manage to recruit strong candidates, raise enough money to fund effective campaigns, and avoid shooting themselves in the foot.