Arkansas’ Chance at a National Championship (UPDATE – Uekman)

Tolbert Report

by Jason Tolbert ([email protected]) November 20, 2011 2:26 pm 69 views 

Arkansas has to beat LSU.

Any analysis of Arkansas’ chance to play for a football National Championship must begin and end with this.  But the Razorbacks are approaching the end of their season with the best chance ever to play for the BCS National Title.  As I see it, there are three possible ways Arkansas could end up playing in New Orleans on January 9 and much of it depends on Alabama.

  1. Auburn beats Alabama – By far, the clearest path for Arkansas is for Auburn to help us out by beating Alabama when they meet in Auburn on Saturday.  This – along with Arkansas beating LSU – would likely put Arkansas at the top of the polls in the SEC Championship game against Georgia.  Then, if Arkansas beats Georgia, they will play for the National Championship.
  2. Alabama beats Auburn, but loses to Georgia – If Alabama and Arkansas both win, there will be a three-way tie. It could go several ways, but most likely this would mean Alabama would play Georgia in the SEC Championship Game.  However, Georgia is one of the most improved teams in the country.  After losing their first two games, they won their next nine straight. If Georgia pulls an upset here, Arkansas could go to the title game.
  3. Alabama beats Auburn and Georgia – There is still a good chance Arkansas could play for the National Championship even if Alabama wins out.  Of course, Alabama would go but we could be their opponent in an all-SEC title game.  To do this Arkansas will need to overcome a couple of biases.  Voters in the polls which factor into BCS rankings do not like to see a non-conference winner in the title game nor do they like to see two teams from the same conference.  The best case Arkansas can make to overcome these biases is to not only beat LSU on Friday, but to win big.

Of course, there is only one thing Arkansas can control and that is to present their case in hostile territory in Baton Rouge on Friday.  Arkansas must beat LSU. They simply must.

UPDATE – This hardly seems fitting to post here but I just saw the tragic report that Arkansas tight end Garrett Uekman was found dead in his dorm room overnight.

My thoughts and prayers are with his family, friends, players, and everyone effected by this sudden tragedy.