Economist: Trucking sector improves in second half of 2011

Nationwide freight demand, which hit a recession in October 1996, should accelerate in the second half of 2011, according to a trucking industry economist.

The American Trucking Associations’ Truck Tonnage Index was 0.1% lower in November after increasing a revised 0.9% in October. In September and October, tonnage increased a total of 2.8%. The latest reduction put the index at 109.7 (2000=100) in November from 109.9 in October.

Compared with November 2009, tonnage measured by the ATA climbed 3.9%, which was significantly lower than October’s 6% year-over-year increase. Year-to-date, tonnage is up 5.9% compared with the same period in 2009.

According to the ATA, trucking serves as a barometer of the U.S. economy, representing nearly 68% of tonnage carried in 2008 by all modes of domestic freight transportation, including manufactured and retail goods. Trucks hauled 8.8 billion tons of freight in 2009. Motor carriers collected $544.4 billion, or 81.9% of total revenue earned by all transport modes.
 
“Tonnage increased for two consecutive months in September and October and I don’t expect volumes to rise every month,” ATA Chief Economist Bob Costello said in a statement. “Additionally, the decrease in November is much smaller than the gains during the previous two months.”

Costello predicted truck freight tonnage to grow modestly during the first half of 2011 before accelerating in the later half of the year into 2012.

The trucking sector is important to the Arkansas economy. Arkansas and Nebraska are tops in the country in in terms of percentage of total state employment being in the trucking sector, according to the ATA trends. In Arkansas, 3.7% of all people employed in the private sector worked for a trucking company, with 3.6% for Nebraska. California and Texas have the most people working in the trucking industry in terms of total numbers.