Talk Business Poll: Beebe, Boozman hold double-digit leads

A new Talk Business Poll shows that U.S. Rep. John Boozman (R) and Gov. Mike Beebe (D) enjoy double-digit leads heading into the final days of the 2010 election cycle.

In the U.S. Senate race, Boozman’s margin over incumbent U.S. Sen. Blanche Lincoln has shrunk to 13 points as he now holds a 49-36% lead. Independent Trevor Drown and Green Party candidate John Gray each received 4% support, while 7% of voters remain undecided.

Beebe has seen a steady increase in his advantage — now 16 points — over Republican gubernatorial challenger Jim Keet, 50-34%. Green Party nominee Jim Lendall pulled 3.5%, and 12.5% remain undecided.

In mid-July, the first Talk Business general election poll in the Senate race showed Boozman with a 25-point lead over Lincoln, 57-32%. Beebe led Keet by only 9 points in that same survey by a 49-40% margin. In mid-September, a Talk Business/Hendrix College poll showed Boozman with a 27-point advantage over Lincoln. Beebe stretched his 9-point lead to 13 points in a late September poll.

The latest Talk Business/Hendrix College Poll was conducted in all 4 Congressional Districts on Oct. 14, among 1,953 Arkansas voters who indicated they were likely to participate in the general election. The poll has a margin of error of +/- 2.2%.

"The broad depth and scope of this poll offers crucial insight as to where these two major races stand heading into the final weeks of the fall campaign," said Talk Business executive editor Roby Brock. "These won’t be the final numbers on Election Day, but we’ll be able to look at the last weeks’ developments and assess what moved these races to their ultimate conclusions."

Dr. Jay Barth, with the Hendrix College Department of Politics and International Relations, helped craft and analyze the poll. He offered the following observations from the results:
• Both of the major statewide races on the ballot — those for U.S. Senate and Governor — have moved in the Democrats’ direction since we last gauged them. But, those shifts mean decidedly different things for the Democrats in those races. Sen. Blanche Lincoln continues to trail badly in her race, while Gov. Beebe has further solidified his re-election support.

• Most impressive is the geographical breadth of Beebe’s support in the race. Beebe leads in three of the four congressional districts, and he is highly competitive in the typically Republican Third District. In the other three congressional districts, Beebe has the support of a majority of the voters. In the Third, Keet has three-point lead, but neither candidate has a majority of voter support.

• Beebe also leads across most demographic groups. He leads across all age groups, although nearly one-fifth of the youngest group of voters remain undecided in the race. The Governor leads among both women and men, although his support is slightly stronger among women. And, Beebe leads among the major racial/ethnic groups, gaining 48% of white voters (to Keet’s 36%) and 65.2% of African-Americans (to Keet’s 19.7%).

• Finally, Beebe has solid support among Democrats (he gains 84.1%), trails slightly among among independents (36.1% for Beebe to 42% for Keet) and is gaining 17.8% of Republican voters (to Keet’s 66.8%).

• With a few differences, the patterns in the U.S. Senate race are markedly similar to the Governor’s race.  But, in this case, it is the Republican who leads with widespread support.

• Although his margin is small (42.9%-38.5%) in Lincoln’s native First Congressional District, Boozman leads in all four congressional districts. If this pattern holds, Boozman would gain the broadest victory geographically of any Republican in the modern history of the state.

• Boozman has overwhelming support among Republicans (with 86.5%) and is easily winning independent voters (61.1%-18.6%). Among Democrats, Lincoln now gains the support of three-fourths of her party (74.2%) with Boozman gaining 12.9%. Thus, Lincoln’s situation is not as dire as was the case during the summer and early fall.  But, it is hard to see how she makes up the final ground with voters beginning to cast their votes in the early voting process.

Link here for more details on the survey and for a breakdown of survey results.