Author: Talk Business

by Talk Business - November 3, 2011 7:00 pm

Crawford Alerts State To More Redistricting Errors

Readers of mine will recall the now infamous Humphrey error that I discovered on the Congressional redistricting map on the morning that the state legislature was about to pass the bill with the error included.  The bill, as written, had two voting preciencts in Jefferson County (P851/P862) remaining in the Fourth Congressional district, but isolated them as completely surrounded by the new areas of the First District.

The discovery forced a last minute amendment and an extra day for the session. But it looks like there might be more.

You see, I discovered the error using a free software program downloaded off the Internet called "Dave Redistricting."  It’s good, but it does not have the level of detail you get when working with the precinct level data provided by the county clerks’ offices.

Congressman Rick Crawford sent a letter today to the Pro Temp of the Arkansas Senate and the Arkansas Speaker of the House pointing out two other precincts (P751 and P90) within the area of Jefferson County moved to the First District that remain in the Fourth District (apparently inadvertently) and are isolated from the remaining district.

Here is the letter….

I am writing to request legislative review of information that suggests the new Congressional maps enacted by the Arkansas Legislature have created two separate noncontinuous precincts within the 1stCongressional District. Precincts 90 and 751 appear to remain as 4th District precincts surrounded by 1stDistrict precincts. Should your research confirm this, I request you take up this matter at the earliest appropriate time, if lawful, to amend the congressional map to ensure legal sufficiency.

We discovered the possible error as we began listing the new precincts that comprise the new 1st District. The abnormalities were obvious immediately as we reviewed the precinct list provided by the Jefferson County Election Commission. Ironically, precinct 90 is contiguous to the 851/862 block that required legislative correction earlier this year. The enclosure titled ‘Precincts and Polling Locations,’ provided by the Jefferson County Election Commission, indicates precincts 90, 91, 851, and 862 vote at Humphrey High School. Omitting precinct 90 from Section 1(a)(2) of Act 1242 appears to create a 4th District island within the 1st District.

The second island precinct that appears to have been overlooked is 751, which is about seven miles south, driving U.S. 63/79. The list of polling locations provided by the Jefferson County Election Commission indicates precinct 751 votes with 19, which surrounds it, at the Wabbaseka Community Center. Information provided by the Jefferson County clerk’s office depicts 751 generally as the city of Wabbaseka.

I would be grateful if you would please review this information at your earliest convenience to determine if the congressional map is in compliance with federal law and what actions may be in order to comply if Act 1242 does create island precincts.

This one could get interesting. Crawford’s potential opponent – Rep. Clark Hall, D-Marvell, was the architect behind the map as chairman of the House State Agencies Committee.  The final map was a compromise after failing to get his first map – the "Fayetteville Finger" – through the Senate.  With the session extending into days, the compromise map was rushed, which could explain all the errors.

How to correct it is another question.  Can it be resolved in Special Language or will this force a call for a special session to fix it – with a price tag of several thousand dollars?  But hey, it’s all "free money" right?

UPDATE – A spokesperson for the House tell me – "Speaker Moore has not yet received the letter, but when he does, he will give it the same thorough consideration he gives all requests from a member of our congressional delegation. If after further review any redistricting errors are found, he, along with Senate leadership will decide how best to move forward."

Here are the maps for the two precincts.

by Talk Business - November 2, 2011 7:00 pm

Meet The Arkansas Democrats Oppo Guy

It is becoming increasingly obvious to me that Arkansas Democrats have decided it is going to be tough to win on their party’s platform this next year.  And with President Obama carrying the banner nationally for them, they are choosing to invest in opposition research on Arkansas Republicans with hopes that they can throw as much mud as possible and hope something sticks.

This past quarter – according to their finance report – they spent almost $60,000 on several "consultants."  It is vague from the report exactly what these consultants were paid for, but we do know a little bit about one of them – Reger Research.  This is the firm of Alan Reger – one of Washington D.C.’s top opposition researchers. 

Here is what Reger had to say in a paper he wrote in 2001 for Campaigns and Elections entitled "Opposition Research: How to Get It Right."

"Opposition research has become an essential part of modern campaigns," wrote Reger. "There are two parts to winning any competitive election. One part is demonstrating that your candidate is competent, capable and has values that match the values of the electorate, and the other is demonstrating that your opponent is incompetent, unethical or does not share and represent the values of the electorate. To do this a campaign must conduct research."

It is apparent to me Arkansas Democrats are looking at polling data and realizing it might be difficult to win with the first part, so they are having to dig up any dirt they can find and sling it around as fast and furiously as they can at Republicans.  So how does an oppo researcher go about this? Reger explains.

"Make sure the researcher you hire will focus on the political, as well as on the personal background of the candidate. These are very different skills. One involves analyzing legislation and actions by executive branch officials, while the other involves public records, including the collection and analysis of court, property and business records."

Going after a candidate’s personal life seems to be the course Reger prefers. But connecting the oppo research to the subsequent attacks is tricky as the information is almost always leaked anonymously (See Politico and whoever is leaking oppo on Cain’s past for an example nationally).

One example of its use in Arkansas could be the recent attacks on the daycare business of Rep. Justin Harris, R-West Fork. It is unclear if this is a result of Reger’s research, but it certainly has his signature.

If you haven’t read about it, the liberal Washington-based group, "Americans for Separation of Church and State" sued Harris for asking workers at his daycare to "share the love of Jesus" with the students.  The group is about as liberal as any group in the United States with positions such as opposition to "In God We Trust" for our national motto and opposition to laws requiring marriage to be between a man and woman.

Is there a direct connection? Impossible to say as the organization declined to tell the Arkansas News Bureau where they got their information on Harris.

It is fascinating to watch Arkansas Democrats crawl in bed with such an extreme liberal organization and a hard ball oppo Washington researcher.  Ironic that it is largely funded by Gov. Beebe’s $881,000 donation to the Democratic Party of Arkansas when Beebe has spoken out so often against "Washington politics." 

Of course, Beebe is no stranger to Reger as his campaign paid him over $156,000 for opposition research during his latest campaign, which he used quite effectively against his opponent Jim Keet.  Reger is close friends with Beebe’s campaign manager and one of the Arkansas Democrats’ leading consultants, Zac Wright, and even served as a groomsman in Wright’s wedding last year.  Wright is currently managing Clark Hall’s campaign for Congress.

Now of course, oppo research is nothing new and both sides have been engaging in the practice for years.  But a state party in Arkansas putting significant resources into opposition research in state legislative races to this level and this early is something new. 

This is likely due to several factors. First, the fight for a majority in both statehouse chambers is going to be close with the Republicans having the most legitimate shot they have ever had at taking one or both chambers.  And with no statewide race other than Congressional races, they can focus heavily on the state legislature. Secondly, the Democratic Party of Arkansas with $1.5 million in the bank has the money to spend.  If Republicans had a similar war chest, it is likely they would be investing in some oppo research as well.

One thing is clear. It is going to be a long, dirty 2012 election cycle.

by Talk Business - November 1, 2011 7:00 pm

Breitbart To Cain – Put Your Cards On The Table

Andrew Breitbart was in North Little Rock Wednesday speaking to an American for Prosperity luncheon as part of their conservative speakers’ series.  While there, he offered some advice to Herman Cain on handling the sexual harassment story.

"I think he needs to get out ahead of this thing as we learned for the Anthony Weiner stories, especially in the age of the Internet where the mainstream media can’t 100 percent control the narrative," said Breitbart. "A person in this environment has to come forward and put all of his or her cards out on the table, and the more you try to make a scandal or non-scandal go away, the more people pry and eventually it all comes out."

Breitbart knows a lot about this sort of thing.  He was the first to break the story on Congressman Anthony Weiner’s inappropriate tweets just days after Breitbart spoke in Little Rock last May.  He commented to me today that perhaps Arkansas is good luck for him and another big story might be breaking soon.

Although he admitted this is a legitimate story, Breitbart did not think the coverage has been entirely fair.

"This is a classic case of the mainstream media doing unto a Republican that which they would not do unto a President Obama or to a Bill Clinton back when he was running. The accusation that emerged against Bill Clinton from Matt Drudge and other sources, other reports were far graver than what we now know."

Breitbart seemed to think there were more allegations that would be coming out on Cain, referencing an former pollster for the National Restaurant Association who stated this morning on a radio station that everybody knew about Cain’s harassment at the NRA. (UPDATE – Breitbart was right. Here is a story from Jonathan Martin at Politico on Chris Wilson claims with the important note that he is a Perry pollster and supporter.)

"There are many, many, many angles swirling around this story including the defensive angle of this story, which is why Politico was willing to go forward with a four-person byline piece that was so limited in terms of specifics. So there is a media angle, there’s a campaign angle, there’s an inter-campaign angle – it’s a story and Herman Cain needs to come forward and put his cards on the table."

David Kinkade – Arkansas’ favorite photoshopping conservative blogger – has more on Breitbart’s appearence including his comments on Occupy Wall Street.

by Talk Business - October 31, 2011 7:00 pm

Column: Three Cheers For Tax Reform!

My Stephens Media column this past weekend focused on the new-found popularity of tax reform proposals. It is actually common in election years, but this time around Herman Cain and Rick Perry are betting their campaigns on them.  Both are bold proposals to simplify a very complicated tax code; however, neither are as simple as they appear.  I explain in great detail in my column and conclude….

This is not a strike against either plan. Both proposals are bold in their scope and are moving the ball forward on bringing much-needed tax reforms. Both are better than the broken framework in which we now operate.

But for these plans to become law, the president would have to get them through Congress, where bold ideas often get picked apart by 535 representatives and senators, all with their own set of ideas and agendas.

However, it is nice to hear bold ideas.

The problem right now for both men is that nobody is talking about their tax reform ideas anymore as both have been thrown off message. Cain is having to explain a story from Politico that uncovers a sexual harassment charge from the 1990’s. Perry is drawing unwanted attention to a speech he gave in New Hampshire where he certainly appears to be intoxicated (but organizers deny that he was.)

Meanwhile, Mitt Romney — who let’s face it is most Republicans back up date for the prom — is looking better everyday.  Well, maybe not better, but perhaps someone we can settle for. Saturday Night Live pretty much had it right.

While speaking of columns, I invite you to check out the column from the newest Stephens Media columnist Roy Ockert editor of the Jonesboro Sun.  Ockert first column looks at a subject I have written quite a bit about – legislator’s salaries.