Talk Business Poll shows Boozman with big primary lead

Survey results from a new Talk Business Poll suggest that U.S. Rep. John Boozman could win the crowded GOP primary for the U.S. Senate without a runoff.

The Talk Business Poll of 1,357 statewide voters shows Boozman favored by 46%, with the State Sen. Gilbert Baker of Conway trailing far behind in second with 14%. Jim Holt of Springdale, who garnered 44% of the vote in his 2004 attempt to unseat U.S. Sen. Blanche Lincoln, D-Ark., captures just 8% of those surveyed in the Talk Business Poll.

“Clearly, John Boozman has a commanding lead in this primary. State Sen. Gilbert Baker appears to be the most likely contender to make a run-off with Boozman, especially in light of his fundraising strength,” Talk Business editor-in-chief Roby Brock noted in his report.

Brock said the other GOP contenders need a “more aggressive strategy” if they are to make up ground between now and the May 18 primary election.

“If something dramatic doesn’t happen to alter the dynamics seen in the current trends, it is conceivable that Boozman could win this primary without a run-off,” Brock said.

The poll, which has a margin of error of +/-3%, was conducted April 13 among likely Republican voters. Zata3, a Washington, D.C.-based polling firm, conducted the automated calls and has no clients in the Senate race in Arkansas this election cycle. The results are not weighted, meaning they the numbers were not manipulated to reflect any previous election cycle. (Link here to see a breakout of the survey results.)

A Talk Business Poll released Wednesday (April 14) showed Sen. Lincoln ahead in the Democratic primary for the U.S. Senate seat she holds. Lincoln leads Lt. Gov. Bill Halter 38% to 31%, with 20% undecided.