Arkansas Election Line: 3rd Congressional race is a toss up

Editor’s note: Three closely watched political journalists based in Little Rock have joined to form The Arkansas Election Line — an ongoing assessment of key political races in Arkansas. Roby Brock (TalkBusiness.net), Blake Rutherford (blakesthinktank.com) and Jason Tolbert (tolbertreport.com) will frequently analyze a race and issue a statement based on where they think the race “leans.” Their assessment is similar to those typically issued by media outlets that focus on Washington D.C. politics.

The Arkansas Election Line says the 3rd Congressional District is a “Safe Republican” district for the November general election. That’s probably not something the lone Democratic candidate — Fayetteville attorney David Whitaker — wants to hear, but the eight Republicans in the GOP primary are not likely to object.

However, The Arkansas Election Line is saying the GOP primary is a “Toss Up,” with the likely frontrunners being State Sen. Cecile Bledsoe of Rogers, former State Sen. Gunner DeLay of Fort Smith and Rogers Mayor Steve Womack.

The frontrunners received the following assessment from The Arkansas Election Line:

BLEDSOE
Cecile Bledsoe has several advantages that give her contender status. First, she is the only female in the race. Her appeal with conservative women voters and a strong Republican women’s grassroots network will work in her favor in the primary.

She has the endorsement of former Cong. Asa Hutchinson and she’s using consultants also working with current Cong. John Boozman’s Senate run. The Hutchinson and Boozman connections won’t hurt her. However, Bledsoe was elected to the State Senate unopposed in 2008; she hasn’t had a contested election in nearly a decade.

DELAY
Gunner DeLay could lead the ticket into the run-off based on regional candidate appeal. DeLay is the only candidate south of the Bobby Hopper Tunnel, the dividing line between northwest Arkansas and the River Valley.

As much as 25% of the voter turnout in the statewide GOP primary may come from Benton County alone. With 6 of the 8 candidates having some sort of political base in Benton County and adjacent Washington County, there is the possibility that those candidates carve up the votes in such a fashion that DeLay’s Fort Smith regional appeal propels him to the forefront.

However, he’ll face challenges in a run-off as the northwest Arkansas region will coalesce behind his ultimate competitor under that scenario. DeLay has been in this position before when he competed in a run-off against John Boozman in a Congressional special election in 2000.

WOMACK
Steve Womack has been the most aggressive campaigner and fundraiser to date. Womack, whose military background and no-tax reputation, positions him as friendly to business and attractive to conservative GOP voters. However, in the past he has espoused anti-immigration rhetoric that would make one large regional employer – Tyson Foods – a bit nervous about his candidacy.

Link here for the details on possible spoilers and other factors that could influence the outcome of the GOP primary election in the 3rd Congressional District.