There are political races in Arkansas this year

They aren’t getting a ton of attention, but there are races for Congress and the U.S. Senate in Arkansas this year.

Democrats are challenging Republican incumbents in all four Congressional seats this cycle.

Long-time 1st Congressional District U.S. Rep. Rick Crawford, R-Jonesboro, is facing a challenge from Democratic nominee Dr. Terri Green, Libertarian Steve Parsons, and Independent Jason Gaines.

You may recall that until Crawford won his race in 2010, the 1st Congressional District had voted Democratic since Reconstruction. No one gave Crawford a chance. But polling showed it could happen, and 2010 was a sea change election year for Arkansas.

Several open seats switched from the Democratic column to the GOP in 2010. By 2014, Republicans completed a massive takeover of Arkansas politics and swept all of the federal and statewide offices, as well as took supermajorities in the Arkansas House and Senate.

U.S. Sen. Tom Cotton, R-Ark., who faces farmer Hallie Shoffner, a Democrat, was elected to Congress and the Senate during this tumultuous three-election cycle between 2010 and 2014.

It’s hard to believe that was over a decade and a half ago.

The overarching factor that led to the Republican red wave was President Barack Obama, specifically opposition to Obamacare, which was about the only thing Republicans had to utter in those campaigns.

And it worked at all levels. I remember seeing a direct mail piece claiming that an incumbent Democratic Justice of the Peace in Northeast Arkansas would be for Obamacare if reelected. Her Republican opponent was against Obamacare and would keep the quorum court safe from a national healthcare overhaul if he won. We all know county government has zero say over federal healthcare legislation, but it didn’t matter.

The Republican challenger won and the incumbent Democrat was sent home. No word on if the word “Obamacare” was ever mentioned in a quorum court meeting since justices of the peace mainly deal with road repairs, solid waste pickup, and county jail management.

This year, Obamacare won’t even be mentioned, but there are a couple of factors that could have an impact on this year’s races. What are those potential factors?

Affordability. Americans are struggling financially. Insurance is higher, tariffs are impacting the costs of goods purchased in stores, interest rates have reduced cheap money, and gas prices at the pump are negatively affecting every consumer.

War. The war in Iran has led to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a major shipping lane for about 20% of the world’s oil. The months-long blockade of the passageway has led to these high gas prices that consistently stay in the $3.50-$4.00 range for Arkansans.

Some may have forgotten that the war between Ukraine and Russia also has had a huge impact on Arkansas, in particular the 1st District and its agriculture economy. Ukraine was a leading producer of fertilizer, and the conflicts in that region of the world disrupted the supply chain and has driven the price of fertilizer sky-high. In turn, one of the major input costs for farmers has compounded a once-in-a-generation agricultural downturn.

Trump. Love him or hate him, his whimsical actions on war, the economy and affordability are not helping the situation. President Donald Trump slaps tariffs on countries without much thought to the ramifications for American businesses. His initiation of the war in Iran is not working out swiftly, and the Iranians have proven to be resourceful in their resistance and resolute in their ability to control the flow of oil in the Middle East. Both of these factors plus myriad other misaddressed priorities are not helping our economy.

There is also Trump fatigue. Just the constant chaos of every day being a 15-story news cycle involving Trump and immigration, self-enrichment, revenge prosecutions, controversial nominations, late-night social media rants, threats and bullying, redistricting, and election complaints just to name a few.

Some combination of these dynamics ought to present an opening for political opponents of Republican incumbents — like Obamacare did 15 years ago — but we’ll have to wait until the results are in to find out.

The messaging I’ve outlined isn’t as simple to grasp as “Obamacare,” which was a singular catchphrase for disliking the president personally and his biggest agenda item. The opposition has yet to derive a simple phrase that sums up the angst coursing through voters today.

It’s possible that these circumstances may take several cycles to work through — again, like it did for the GOP from 2010-14.

Or, it could all be a mirage and Republicans may hold onto their supermajorities here in Arkansas comfortably.

I’m asked often if Shoffner can defeat Cotton or if Chris Jones can take out French Hill in the 2nd District.

They may be longshots, but in politics, you have to wait until the races are run. One thing is certain: if you’re not on the ballot, you have no chance of winning. So go vote, make your decision known, and let’s see where the chips may fall.

Editor’s note: Roby Brock is the editor-in-chief of Talk Business & Politics. He hosts “Talk Business & Politics” and “Capitol View” and a radio program three times a week on KASU.