National trucking activity falls most in more than 14 years

With the trucking sector widely regarded as a bellwether for the national economy, Monday’s report that the December national for-hire trucking index fell the most in more than 14 years is not good news.

The American Trucking Associations’ seasonally adjusted For-Hire Truck Tonnage Index plunged 11.1 percent in December 2008, marking the largest month-to-month reduction since April 1994, when the unionized less-than-truckload industry was in the midst of a strike.

“Motor carrier freight is a reflection of the tangible-goods economy, and December’s numbers leave no doubt that the United States is in the worst recession in decades,”  said ATA Chief Economist Bob Costello. “It is likely truck tonnage will not improve much before the third quarter of this year. The economy is expected to contract through the first half of 2009 and then only grow slightly through the end of the year.”

Trucking serves as a barometer of the U.S. economy, representing nearly 70 percent of tonnage carried by all modes of domestic freight transportation, including manufactured and retail goods, according to the ATA.

Other points from the ATA report include:

• December’s drop was the third-largest single-month drop since ATA began collecting the data in 1973, according the ATA report.

• In December, the seasonally adjusted tonnage index equaled just 98.3 (2000 = 100), its lowest level since December 2000.
 
• Compared with December 2007, the index declined 14.1 percent, the biggest year-over-year decrease since February 1996.

• During the fourth quarter, tonnage was down 6.0 percent from the same quarter in 2007.