Baloney Sandwich Index dips in December

Improvements in area jobless numbers have lowered the Baloney Sandwich Index, but the recently created economic gauge is at an historical high for December.

The BSI was launched in early November by Ken Kupchick, and noted a 183.2 Index for October, an all-time high for the month. The index goes back to September 2003.

Kupchick, director of marketing and development for the River Valley Regional Food Bank, uses three numbers to compute the BSI: the number of sack lunches served by the St. John’s Episcopal Church sack lunch program, the Sebastian County jobless rate and the Fort Smith metro jobless rate. He uses a commonly accepted method to adjust for seasonality.

“The River Valley Regional Food Bank’s Baloney Sandwich Index plummeted from a record high of 183.2 in October to 149.0 in December as local unemployment eased slightly,” Kupchick noted.

All eight metro areas in or connected to Arkansas posted a jobless rate decline in November compared to October. Also, jobless rates in five of the metro areas were down compared to November 2010 and the remaining three were unchanged compared to November 2010.

The Fort Smith metro area jobless dipped to an estimated 7.8% in November, down from 7.9% during October, and unchanged compared to November 2010. Unfortunately, the number of employed in the region was also down compared to November 2010.

The number of unemployed in the Fort Smith metro area was an estimated 10,241 in November, down from a revised 10,507 in October, and down compared the 10,518 unemployed in November 2010. The number of employed in the metro area during November was 121,828, just above the 121,740 employed in the area during October, but well below the 123,574 during November 2010.

Kupchick said the October BSI predicted a rise in the local jobless numbers.

“Fort Smith metro unemployment spiked from a near yearly low of 7.9% in August to 8.7% in October,” Kupchick said. “October’s high was followed by a decrease in the Index to 163.0 in November to December’s 149.0. In keeping with the Index, metro unemployment backed off slightly in November to 8.5%. Should the Index prove a faithful predictor, December’s metro unemployment should fall yet again.”

Kupchick also said the BSI continues to record “a significant number of children” who need the St. John’s Sack Lunch program. He said an average of 363 children’s meals were served during the summer months when children who rely on free and reduced price meals at school find themselves without food support. The count fell to 216 in September when schools reopened.

“The number of children’s lunches served reached a record high of 393 sack lunches in December. The record reflects the number of children in need while schools are closed for the holiday season,” Kupchick explained.