Creighton report shows Arkansas economy lagging mid-America conditions

Economic conditions improved in a nine-state region measured by the Creighton University Mid-America Business Conditions Index, but the report shows a big decline in Arkansas’ economy and a more than 20% gain in unemployment insurance filings.

The March Creighton index for the nine-state region was 55.6 in March, up from 54.7 in February, and well above the 49.6 in January. A value above 50 reflects growth.

“Creighton’s latest survey indicates that the regional manufacturing sector continues to improve, albeit slowly but steadily, with manufacturing jobs added for the first time since March 2025,” Ernie Goss, director of Creighton University’s Economic Forecasting Group and the Jack A. MacAllister Chair in Regional Economics in the Heider College of Business, noted in the report.

The March employment index for the region rose to 50.7, the first reading above growth neutral since March 2025, and up from February’s 49.2. U.S. manufacturing lost approximately 20,000 jobs for February, January and December.

Data from the U.S. Department of Labor indicate that initial claims for unemployment insurance for the most recent five weeks, compared to the same weeks in 2025, sank 7.2% for nine state region. Those same claims were up 21.5% in Arkansas. Arkansas’ business conditions index in March was 44.5, a drop from 56.3 in February. The new orders index was 58.2, production at 52.3, delivery lead time at 48.6, inventories at 32.1, and employment at 31.1.

Higher prices continue to weigh on the region, according to the report. The March price gauge was 69.4, above the 60.2 in February.

“The Creighton regional price gauge and the national ISM wholesale price index are elevated and undermine any chance of a rate cut at the Federal Reserve’s rate-setting committee meetings on April 28-29, in my judgment,” said Goss.

Following are other items in the report.
• Looking ahead six months, economic optimism, as captured by the March Business Confidence Index, declined to 53.2 from 57.2 in February. “I expect rising energy prices, along with supply chain disruptions, to push the confidence index lower in the coming months,” Goss said.

• The regional inventory index, reflecting levels of raw materials and supplies, slipped to 52.4 from 52.8 in February.

• Recent retaliation from higher U.S. tariffs and trade restrictions pushed new export orders, or purchases from abroad, below growth neutral for the last seven months. The new export orders index rose to 48.6 from 47.2 in February.

• As a result of record imports for the first two months of 2025 and higher import prices, supply managers pulled back on purchasing from abroad in the last 12 months. The March import index rose to 46.4 from 42.5 in February.

The Creighton Economic Forecasting Group has conducted the monthly survey of supply managers in nine states since 1994 to produce leading economic indicators of the mid-America economy. States included in the survey are Arkansas, Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, Oklahoma and South Dakota.