EIA: Solar to supply majority of U.S. electricity generation growth this year

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by Jeff Della Rosa ([email protected]) May 8, 2024 11:15 am 1,236 views 

Renewable energy sources are expected to account for most of the electricity generation growth in the United States over the next two years, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). U.S. electricity generation is projected to rise by about 3% in 2024 and 1% in 2025.

On Tuesday (May 7), the EIA released the Short-Term Energy Outlook for May that shows generation from utility-scale solar is expected to supply nearly 60% of the U.S. electricity generation increase this year. Wind is projected to contribute 19%, while hydropower provides 13%.

Electricity from solar, wind and hydropower combined is expected to account for 22% of total U.S. generation in 2024 and rise to 24% in 2025. Electricity from those three sources comprised 21% of U.S. generation in 2023.

Solar is expected to provide 41% more electricity in 2024 than in 2023. Wind generation is expected to rise by 5% in 2024; however, if wind speeds differ significantly from expectations, the generation could change. Hydropower is projected to provide 6% more generation, with the most significant growth in the Southeast.

“In 2025, we expect generation from solar to exceed the contribution from hydroelectricity for the first year in history,” said EIA Administrator Joe DeCarolis.

Following are other highlights from the May Short-Term Energy Outlook:

  • U.S. retail gasoline prices are projected to average about $3.70 per gallon from April through September, similar to prices during the same period last year.
  • U.S. coal production is projected to fall by 14% in 2024 from 2023, while coal exports reach 99 million short tons this year.
  • The Trans Mountain Pipeline started operating last week, and it’s expected to alleviate bottlenecks and support the increase of Canada’s liquid fuels production to about 6.3 million barrels per day in 2025, an increase of 500,000 barrels per day from current production.
  • International benchmark Brent crude oil spot prices are projected to average about $90 per barrel for the remainder of 2024 amid voluntary OPEC+ crude oil production cuts and geopolitical risks. As global oil production rises, the prices are expected to fall to an average of $85 per barrel in 2025.