Cook: Tim Griffin’s Lt. Governor Candidacy a Political Earthquake

Congressman Tim Griffin’s entry into the Lt. Governor’s race must be described as an earth shaking political event, both in the Republican primary and the general election. Griffin’s potential candidacy for Lt. Governor is similar to an earthquake, because after both occur, nothing is ever the same again.

Here’s how Tim Griffin’s entry in this race changes the political landscape.

Currently, two Republican State Reps are vying for the Republican nomination: Debra Hobbs and Andy Mayberry. None of these candidates have any real name recognition beyond their respective legislative districts, none have a major geographic base, and none have raised significant funds.

With Griffin entering the primary, he instantly shakes up that nomination race.  Rep. Charlie Collins told the press today that he will seek re-election to his House seat. So, Collins is gone. After that, the two remaining unknown and underfunded State Reps probably can’t beat an incumbent Congressman in a statewide primary. Griffin has too many advantages. Mark it down, Griffin is the Republican nominee for Lt. Governor.

Jumping ahead to the general election, Tim Griffin faces off against likely Democratic nominee John Burkhalter.

In my opinion, prior to Griffin’s entry, Burkhalter was strongly favored to win, due in part, to his impressive story of coming from very humble beginnings to going on to became a self-made successful businessman. Unlike his opponents, Burkhalter was not a politician which is often a plus. And on top of all that, Burkhalter has the funds to wage a serious campaign, either through fundraising or personal check writing.

Griffin’s entry now makes the Lt. Governor’s race a complete toss-up.

Griffin begins the race with significant name recognition in Arkansas’s largest media market and has an impressive fundraising track record. Since he’s a former political operative, he knows how to run modern campaigns. In short, Griffin is a formidable candidate in the race for Lt. Governor.

However, Griffin has significant disadvantages that Burkhalter can exploit. Griffin is currently a member of the country’s most dysfunctional and disliked institution – Congress. Burkhalter can tie Griffin to the mess in Washington and Griffin has a voting record that Burkhalter can attack.

In past Second Congressional polling, Griffin’s numbers showed he is a polarizing figure, meaning his geographic base may not be as strong as many believe.

Along those same lines, some political observers believe one of the reasons Griffin didn’t run for re-election is because he feared losing due to Arkansans’ and the country’s deep-seeded anger at Washington. An internal Democratic poll conducted just prior to Griffin’s announcement had the incumbent losing to former North Little Rock Mayor Pat Hays.

Having Burkhalter as an opponent is not the ideal scenario for Tim Griffin. Burkhalter has no voting record to attack since he’s never held public office. Also, Griffin likely will have a hard time employing the Republican strategy of tying Democrats to Barack Obama since, again, Burkhalter has never held office, and hasn’t had to take positions on public issues.

Furthermore, I believe it’s easier for the well-funded Burkhalter to tie Griffin to the mess in Washington than it is for Griffin to tie the Democratic businessman to Barack Obama.

This race is likely to be the most expensive Lt. Governor’s race in Arkansas’s history since for the first time both candidates will be well-funded.

In the end, this race is now a toss-up and Democrats have a real fight on their hands.