An internal memo obtained by the Tolbert Report from the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) gives insight as to how high of a priority it is placing on the Arkansas Senate race between incumbent Sen. Mark Pryor and Republican Rep. Tom Cotton.
Obviously, leaked internal memos should be treated with a grain of salt, but their emphasis on Pryor as the “Senator Most Likely to Lose in 2014” is a bold statement considering the number of other races they are also targeting.
The memo compares the state of the race to former Sen. Blanche Lincoln’s unsuccessful re-election in 2010.
“Meet Blanche Lincoln 2.0… Mark Pryor has the name, has the money, has the Clinton machine, and is running for re-election in Arkansas, a state that proved those talking points won’t get you very far if you are fundamentally misaligned with the electorate,” writes Ward Baker, NRSC Political Director. “A quick historical refresher, Lincoln lost her seat by 21-points (despite outspending her opponent by more than 4x).”
The internal document also discusses the polling data that shows Pryor unable to get out of the low to mid 40’s and the growing generic advantage in the state. It also makes an interesting comparison to Boozman that I have not really seen pushed yet.
“When John Boozman got into the race in 2010, he had raised nearly $700k and had over $500k cash on hand at the end of the first quarter of the election year. Today, six months before that same point in this election cycle, Tom Cotton has already raised over $2.2 million ($1.07 million this quarter, beating Pryor) and has approximately $1.8 million cash on hand.”
Full memo below…