Obama In For A Battle In The Fourth, Romney On Cruise Control

A week ago, federal inmate and Democratic Presidential candidate Keith Judd pulled 42% of the West Virginia primary vote against incumbent Barack Obama.

The President's 57% tally in a state that will be non-competitive in the fall was a signal of disillusionment among conservative Democratic voters who dominate West Virginia's party politics.

Obama is likely to experience a similar wave of discontent from Fourth District Democratic voters in Arkansas.

In our latest Talk Business-Hendrix College Poll, conducted last Thursday, May 10, 2012, 38% of Democratic primary voters in the Fourth say they're casting ballots for John Wolfe, a Tennessee attorney who filed paperwork to qualify for the Arkansas Democratic primary.

Less than half — just 45% — say they presently support Obama.

45% – Barack Obama
38% – John Wolfe
17% – Undecided

The poll was taken just one day after President Obama made public his support of gay marriage; however, Obama has never performed extraordinarily well among voters in rural Arkansas.

Three weeks ago, a Talk Business-Hendrix College Poll showed Obama performing better in the culturally conservative First Congressional District of Arkansas. In that poll, Obama received 65% of the vote compared to Wolfe's 24%.

Also of interest, Fourth District Democrats were asked to describe their political leanings before any candidate or issue questions were posed.

Q: How would you describe your political leanings?

21% – Liberal or Progressive
46% – Conservative
33% – Moderate

There is a higher percentage of self-described conservative Democratic voters in the Fourth compared to the First. In the First District poll, respondents described their political leanings as follows:

22.5% – Liberal or Progressive
40.5% – Conservative
37% – Moderate

THE GOP PRIMARY
Conversely, in the Republican primary Mitt Romney seems to be coalescing his support as contenders who qualified for the GOP ballot earlier this year have suspended or halted their campaigns. Romney, who has had a difficult time winning social conservatives that make up a large base of Arkansas Republican voters, is the easy victor among his rivals in the Fourth, according to a separate poll conducted among GOP primary voters.

59% – Romney
15% – Santorum
11% – Gingrich
7%  – Paul
8%