Straw Hats, or Horned Helmets?

About the same time the electronic media was going cuckoo over Brett Farve’s recent arthroscopic ankle surgery, I ran across another Nordic warrior reference in a somewhat headier realm.

Unlike the “aged” and indecisive quarterback who is – for now – thought to be prepped for an encore season with the Minnesota Vikings, author Donald Sull was resolute in his advice for firms looking to “power out of the recession.”

His Harvard Business Review article lists seven questions that managers should be asking themselves today. It would be smart to explore all seven. But one question leapt off the page like the kitschy post-catch celebration of a Minnesota receiver.

“Have your Vikings become farmers?”

I had never quite heard it put that way. Especially as business leaders try to paddle out of the weak recovery, the analogy seems relevant.

It’s like an older axiom on risk analysis by country singer Kenny Rogers: “You gotta know when to hold ’em, know when to fold ’em…”

Knowing when to be aggressive and when to pull back is as timeless of a question in business as it is in sports, relationships and many other facets of life. Emotional control, or E.Q., in either direction is at the core of virtually every important decision an organization makes.

Sull explains “executives who excel at execution resemble Nordic Vikings, who attacked when they saw an unprotected spot and retreated when they realized they couldn’t win…”

But after taking some territory, even Viking invaders sometimes stayed to farm the land. Eventually, some of them valued the “security of protecting what they had more than the adventure of pursing new opportunities.”

By the way, their empire eventually faded.

Are you or your team settling into safe routines, or are you taking up the sword? What strategy is going to give you the most bounce during the rebound?

Every organization needs some farmers, but as Sull asserts, “companies with too few Vikings on the payroll struggle to execute with sufficient urgency.” Worse yet, as businesses mature early entrepreneurs may even leave for new adventures.

In other words, the Vikes give us the best chance of growing market share or conquering our best opportunities. Farmer Browns will best protect the status quo.

Whether considering buying, selling or holding, it comes down to trusting feelings or findings? Guts or logarithms?

I asked my friend David Lewis of Fayetteville which works best. A veteran securities trader, Lewis spent 18 years with Salomon Brothers and had additional impressive stints with financial dynamos including Alice Walton’s former Llama Investment Co.

“I think it’s both,” Lewis said. “You try to use as much information as you can, and also what you feel and know from experience to arrive at a logical decision. The biggest thing is being able to pull the trigger, and also, being able to pull it again and get out if it’s not working.”

Lewis said the willingness through the years of Wal-Mart Stores Inc., both to experiment and to cut bait, is one of the things that made the Bentonville retailer so successful.

“Sam (Walton) would make a decision and never look back,” Lewis said. “It might cost them $10 million, but if they tried something and it wasn’t working they’d kill it and go on.”

Another of my diverse friend set is a former craps dealer in Las Vegas. He offers two strategies for success at craps, the dice game often compared to investing.

 “No. 1, don’t play,” he said. “No. 2, press your point bets one time each, then take your money. Sooner or later the shooter is going to seven out, so why not take the (winnings) you can while he’s on a roll. If you can play with the house’s money, those aren’t bad returns.”

The odds are obviously stacked against you in craps, as they are in taking unnecessary business risks. But at some point, particularly if you can get a return of your investment early, you have to take some educated chances for new opportunities.

The organizations who best navigate the economic recovery will be the ones that have a few more Vikings on board than farmers.

If your crew is full of straw hats, it might be time to invest in a couple of horned helmets. They just might make you a champion again.