Tolbert Report

The Tolbert Report

It almost sounds impossible, but it seems former Sen. Blanche Lincoln has flip-flopped on her position on the health care bill yet again. Well…sorta.

Roby Brock reports that Lincoln announced today that she is now the chairperson for the "Small Businesses for Sensible Regulations" coalition. The new group is part of the National Federation of Independent Businesses.

If this organization sounds familiar, it is likely from their decision to join in suing to overturn the federal health care legislation last year.

"We didn’t enter into the decision to join this lawsuit lightly – we have been representing small business owners since 1943 and we take this responsibility extremely seriously. But the outpouring of opposition to this new law was overwhelming and our members urged us to do everything in our power to stop this unconstitutional law," said Dan Danner, president and CEO of The National Federation of Independent Businesses last year in a statement from their organization. “Small business owners everywhere are rightfully concerned that the unconstitutional new mandates, countless rules and new taxes in the health care law will devastate their business and their ability to create jobs."

I am sure you will recall that last year Blanche Lincoln cast the deciding vote (or not depending on when you ask her) on health care reform. But who would have thought she now has joined an organization walking arm-in-arm with Arkansas Lt. Gov. Mark Darr in suing to have the law overturned.

Gop Foi Request Doesn’t Support Claims

Most readers already know the long saga of the Republican Party of Arkansas and the liberal blog Blue Hog Report, but here is a brief recap.

Sanders Vs. Sanders On Rick Perry

With the Iowa Caucus about a week away, I thought we might as well talk a little Presidential politics. It seems on one potential candidate – Texas Gov. Rick Perry – two Arkansas Sanders (no relation) have very different viewpoints.

Legislative Races Taking Shape

With the November 2012 elections 15 months away, it is still very early in the process. But with the new legislative maps finalized last week by the Board of Approtionment, some of the races are beginning to take shape. I would expect this to pick up in August and even more so in September. We will do our best to keep up with all the developments and would ask anyone running to drop a line to either myself – [email protected] – or one of the members of the Talk Business team – Roby Brock or Michael Cook.

While certainly not exhaustive, here is a taste of some the latest developments.

Just west of Little Rock and Conway, Senate District 15 could be an active open district. This one is largely made up of the area previously represented by Sen. Jason Rapert who was drawn into Conway’s Senate District 35. ~~Unless he moves back into the district~~, it will be an open one with possibly a hotly-contested primary and a general election. Term-limited Republican Rep. Ed Garner indicated in a Facebook post this weekend that he is interested in running and has formed a campaign committee. In addition, the Tolbert Report has learned that Republican Rep. David Sanders is planning to move into an area where House District 31 and Senate District 15 overlap. If the district is open, I would look for him to give the race serious consideration. On the Democratic side, someone reportedly ran a poll with former Rep. Johnny Hoyt’s name tied to it. Hoyt was defeated in this district by Sen. Rapert in 2010. (UPDATE – Sen. Rapert posts via Facebook that he will run in distict 35 – Conway.)

In Little Rock’s House District 33, former Arkansas Times associate editor Warwick Sabin let me know that he plans to run for the seat opened up by term-limited Rep. Kathy Webb. This Heights House district is known as one of the most progressive districts in the state so look for the Democratic nominee to probably hold this one.

Over in Fort Smith, a primary is also likely brewing in the district held by Republican Sen. Bruce Holland. Much to his displeasure, former Rep. Rick Green was drawn into the same district as Holland. Green had hoped to run in the district just to the north of Fort Smith currently held by term-limited Republican Sen. Ruth Whitaker; however, it appears Green will still run even if it means challenging an incumbent. There is also talk that Republican Rep. Gary Deffenbaugh could get in this race as well.

Incumbent Republican Sen. Bill Pritchard from Elkins will also likely face a primary challenge from term-limited Rep. Jon Woods of Springdale. Woods told the Tolbert Report last month that he is seriously looking at this race and will be making a decision soon.

In south Arkansas, former Democratic Rep. Bruce Maloch from Magnolia plans to run for the seat left open by term-limited Sen. Percy Malone. A couple of Republician challengers in this district are also weighing a run for U.S. Congress – former Republican nominee Beth Anne Rankin and Rep. Lane Jean both of Magnolia. If I had to guess, I would say it is more likely Rankin runs for Congress and Jean runs for the state senate but neither have made a final decision.

What other potentially big races are brewing? Let us know!

Noted – Michael Tilley from The City Wire reports that Republican Rep. Denny Altes of Fort Smith will also have a primary. Area businessman Matt Pitsch has announced he plans to challenge him. Altes has been in the legislature since a special election 1999, serving two terms (max) in the Senate and two and half terms in the House. This means 2012 would elect him to his final term before term limit kick in. On course, it could be one of those years when the new comers have the advantage.

Column: Stopping Abortion With Compassion And Prayer

This week, my Stephens Media column was about the event put on by several pro-life groups here in Arkansas with Abby Johnson. As a former Planned Parenthood worker turned pro-life activist, Johnson’s story is amazing. What perhaps struck me the most is her description of the different pro-life activists. The ones who had the most impact were the ones who reached out to the ladies with compassion and with prayer, not with anger.

One lady who noticed the difference in this pro-life group was a rising star in the Planned Parenthood organization, Abby Johnson. An eight-year employee of Planned Parenthood, Johnson said she saw the impact of the peaceful, prayerful demonstrations.

Alpena – The New Humphrey (updated)

It was bound to happen. When you draw lines for redistricting with the goal of creating a partisan advantage instead of communities of interest, you end…well…splitting communities of interest. This was on display during Congressional redistricting when an error led to the city of Humphrey being split in half with one half a non-continuous island. This year, it appears Alpena has come out on the short-end.

Bill Bowen with the Arkansas Democrat Gazette gets credit for the discovery this time pointing out in his article today that this same town of 392 in northwest Arkansas will be split into three Senate districts and two House districts. When asked about it, the Governor’s office pointed the finger back at Alpena for not figuring it out themselves and saying something. From the ADG article:

The fragmenting of Alpena was done by accident, said Matt DeCample, a spokesman for Gov. Mike Beebe.

“That was absolutely not intentional on our part,” DeCample said. “We have nothing against the good folks of Alpena. But the lines have to go somewhere. That’s a unique situation for a town that small. Sometimes we’re able to catch things like that. Sometimes they slip through.”

DeCample said the Governor’s office was unaware of the situation involving Alpena until informed of it by a reporter Friday afternoon.

“I think if we had gotten feedback from Alpena that it was something they were really worried about, [the district lines] would have been something we could have moved,” he said.

So I guess the author of the map, Gov. Beebe, expected the fine folks in Alpena to figure out what his own office did not know. I am not sure how he expected this since he did not release any of the precinct data for the maps in advance of the vote. (I did obtain this information on Thursday evening from the Secretary of State, but did not have time to do much of a review it before the vote.)

UPDATE – The Alpena Five – An inquisitive reader asked which five legislators will represent the small town of Alpena. It’s a good question that is tricky to answer with the reshaped districts. As best I can tell, the three Senators making up the Alpena Five will be Sen. Johnny Key of Mountain Home (61 miles away), term-limited Sen. Randy Laverty of Jasper (31 miles away), and term-limited Sen. Ruth Whitaker of Cedarville (127 miles away). The two House members will be term-limited Rep. Bryan King of Green Forrest (10 miles away) and Rep. David Branscum of Marshall (54 miles away.)

I also have to add that Gov. Beebe’s take on how to work around FOIA’s meeting requirements is quite interesting. From the Arkansas Democrat Gazette‘s Sarah Wire today…

“All of our staffs had worked together for months … it became clear that the secretary of state’s vision was different,” McDaniel said.

Beebe said he did not work with McDaniel on his map, saying it would have been a violation of the state’s Freedom of Information Act for two board members to meet without public notice. He said the staff from all three offices worked together.

“Their staff worked with our staff, didn’t have any trouble working, and I think if you talk to the [attorney general’s] staff they’ll tell you that they had no problem working with our staff, but of course I didn’t work with Martin and I didn’t work with McDaniel privately because it would have been a violation of the Freedom of Information Act. [Martin] ought to know that by now, since he’s gotten into so much trouble with the Freedom of Information Act,” Beebe said.

Beebe spokesman Matt DeCample clarified that the governor was referring to interaction between media and the secretary of state’s office about the act in recent months.

A spokesman for Martin disputed what Beebe and McDaniel said.

“They never gave us a direction they wanted to go, and they never reacted positively or negatively to the maps [put out by the secretary of state,]” spokesman Mark Myers said. “Obviously, they had been corresponding with each other and leaving us out of the discussion.”

Mmmmmm…..okay.

Ross Rips Colleagues In Final Speech Before Announcement

Rep. Mike Ross had a high profile press conference on Monday morning where he announced that he would not seek re-election in the 2012, with most speculation that instead he will run for governor in 2014. But the Saturday before this announcement, Ross tossed some red meat to the Arkansas Democratic faithful at their annual Jefferson-Jackson dinner and he held nothing back regarding his Arkansas colleagues from the other side of the aisle.

After saying how much he missed former Rep. Vic Synder, Ross joked about having to fly back and forth to Washington with Republican Congressman Tim Griffin and Rick Crawford.

“Tim Griffin already thinks he is running for the U.S. Senate and Rick Crawford still has got that deer in the highlights look,” said Ross. “Sen. Pryor you will be just fine.”

Ross said that after Congressional redistricting, the Second Congressional District is the most Democratic district in Arkansas and “there is no reason that Tim Griffin – a Republican – should be serving in the Second Congressional District.” He continued that the First Congressional District in the second most Democratic district and “there is no reason that Rick Crawford should be allowed to be re-elected in the First Congressional District. In fact, governor, the Republicans have got this country so screwed up I am starting to think that we might even win the Third Congressional District.”

Ross went on to blame the downturn in the economy on former President Bush followed by the Republican take over of Congress. Praise was offered for former President Bill Clinton while the current President Barack Obama was never mentioned.

Ross also presented a check to the Democratic Party of Arkansas for $10,000 which I assume came from the funds he had previously raised for re-election.

You can view other speeches from the Democrat’s J-J Dinner on their YouTube page linked here.

Lotto Lobbyist Robbie Wills

Michael Wickline with the Arkansas Democrat Gazette finds a gem in the Secretary of State’s filing this week. Former Speaker of the House Robbie Wills’ disclosure that he now represents Arkansas lottery vender, Intralot, Inc.

Why is that a big deal? Well, for starters as Speaker, Robbie Wills played perhaps the largest role in constructing how our current lottery is set up and operates. He was responsible for appointing three of the original commission members including current Lottery Commissioner Mike Malone. And then there is this from Wickline…

In May 2009, Wills initially told the Arkansas Democrat-Gazette that the dozen legislators on the oversight committee were barred from lobbying for lottery interests for two years in Act 606 of 2009.

But when informed by the newspaper that no such provision could be found, he said he misspoke. He said he would propose legislation in the 2010 session to create a cooling-off period for lawmakers on the oversight committee after they leave office before they would be allowed to begin lobbying for lottery interests.

Wills said Thursday that he “didn’t pursue the idea in the 2010 fiscal session because at the time I was no longer on the lottery oversight committee and was focused on running for Congress."

“I’m honored to be a part of the Intralot team and look forward to helping keep the Arkansas Scholarship Lottery successful,” he said.

Yeah…

Tolbert Toon: Redistricting And Armies In The Ukraine

A reader submits a cartoon this week that pokes fun at the redistricting process and the vote tomorrow from the Board of Apportionment. Plus it has a nice Seinfeld reference.

Boa Unable To Produce Precinct Level Info For Redistricting Map (update)

The Arkansas Board of Apportionment is scheduled to vote on proposed new House and Senate maps on Friday morning. The House and Senate maps proposed by Gov. Mike Beebe will likely pass with votes by himself and Attorney General Dustin McDaniel, whose maps closely mirror Beebe’s. However, in spite of released PDF copies of their maps, they have still been unable (or unwilling) to provide the precinct level data for their maps. And perhaps even more oddly, the Board of Apportionment insists they don’t even have to have this information for the final vote in less than 24 hours.

I am certainly not an expert in the Board of Apportionment process, but after observing the Congressional redistricting process, I understand the importance of the actual precinct level data – listing which voting precincts are in each individual district. The bill passed by the state legislature had this information. This was what I used to discover the error in the bill with the non-continuous portion of the Fourth Congressional District in Humphrey leading to an amendment to correct the oversight.

After repeated requests, Joe Woodson with the BOA tells me late on Wednesday he is still unable to provide this information. I have also contacted the governor’s office and attorney general’s office who have both referred me to Woodson.

"Codified language is not required," insisted Woodson. "We are putting together our final report to be voted on and filed Friday. As I said yesterday (Tuesday), the information you want is not readily available in the software. Our IT guys are having to go in and pull out the information we need to describe the new districts by county, precinct and block."

Seriously, this legally is not required? Mark Myers in the Secretary of State’s office disagrees.

"The legal descriptions are required," said Myers. "There’s no way to tell what parts of precincts are in what districts. Without that data, it could be Humphrey all over again."

Who is right? I am certainly not an election attorney, but it certainly seems that some sort of official language defining the individual districts would have to be approved by the board. But with so little time before the vote on Friday, even if they released the data now, it would be virtually impossible for anyone to comb through it in that small amount of time.

So much for transparency.

UPDATE – 7:00 pm Thursday evening and I finally have the precinct level data for the Governor’s proposed maps which are up for a vote tomorrow morning. Ironically, it was the Secretary of State’s office that was finally able to get it to me. The file is a big too large to post (I think) but if anybody wants it – send me a note – [email protected]. I am not sure what I will be able to gleen from it with only a few hours before tomorrow morning’s vote.

Arkansas Democrats’ Overreaction Shows Signs Of Desperation

You almost have to feel bad for Arkansas Democrats…almost. With the last remaining Arkansas Congressional Democrat, Mike Ross, announcing he will not run for re-election, they are facing the realization that the entire Arkansas delagation – save Sen. Mark Pryor who is not up until 2014 – could turn red in the next cycle. They are just coming off a tidal wave 2010 election which saw Republicans in the state capitol close to double in ranks. And with the unpopular President Obama leading their ticket in 2012, it is likely to get even worse for them.

It is so bad that Politico this week had the healine "Arkansas Democrats Face Extinction." Ouch!

It is almost understandable then that they are doing everything they can to hang on to power – whether it is creative map drawing or trying to seize every opportunity to paint Republicans as crazy extremists. Granted, frequent e-mails circulating the Internet make for easy targets. But the over-the-top reaction to an ill-advised Facebook post from a Republican state representative has been both amusing and a bit annoying at the same time.

Rep. Nate Bell, a Republican representative from Mena, frequently posts all sorts of things on his Facebook wall. He uses it as sort of a personal blog with different news items and random thoughts. On Saturday, he posted a quote from Adolph Hilter that by all appearances was meant to demonstrate a flawed political philosophy. The quote – "As long as the government is perceived as working for the benefit of the children, the people will happily endure almost any curtailment of liberty and almost any deprivation." – Mein Kampf, Adolf Hitler.

Now it goes without saying, any political consultant would tell you that quoting Hilter is probably not the best idea in just about any context. As would be expected, the state’s liberal blogger Max Brantley quickly picked up on this and had a hey-day. It was expected. It is what Max does.

The odd thing is the Democratic Party of Arkansas’ steady stream of press releases, tweets, and even fundraising pleas – the picture on the left is from their fundraising website – all focused on Bell’s comments.

I am reminded of the whole episode a little over a year ago when the Democratic Party director at the time compared being in a Republican legislature to being in a "cult." Blogger David Kinkade summed it up well when he said "…let’s review some elementary political communication tactics, such as, when someone makes a charge against you, you DON’T REPEAT THE CHARGE. Why? Because it simply reinforces the idea in people’s minds, rather than refuting it."

Granted that was a case of the state executive director talking to a reporter for the statewide newspaper rather than a freshman state legislator on his personal Facebook page. But I believe Kinkade’s point still stands.

As for Bell, he tells me, "I don’t believe Democrats are Nazis." Fair enough.

Even so, I predict Democrats will completely ignore this entire post and continue hyper-ventilating every time they can get a chance to paint a Republican as extreme.

Governor Updates House Map Ahead Of Apportionment Vote

Gov. Mike Beebe submitted minor changes to an Arkansas House of Representatives map just days before a final vote is expected on the new legislative boundaries.

Beebe Tweaks Senate Map

Late Tuesday, Gov. Mike Beebe’s office released an update to his State Senate map. There were no major changes, just some tweaking around some districts. The main changes included:

The proposed districts held by Republican Sen. Jonathan Dismang and Sen. Eddie Joe Williams swapped some of the area around the city of Beebe, moving this into Dismang’s district and out of Williams’. The changes smoothes out both districts, particularly Dismang’s. In addition, before being elected to the Senate, Dismang represented the city of Beebe in the House, so it makes since he would remain with his base. "I am glad to have my hometown of Beebe back in my district," said Dismang. "I am also pleased that the two largest cities in White Couty (Beebe and Searcy) will be together."
The second main change shifts additional minority precincts into the proposed east Arkansas district held by Democratic Sen. Jack Crumbly. The original proposed district was a majority-minority district but just barely, drawing complaints from Crumbly. The revision increases the minority make-up of the proposed district from 51% to 53% of the voting age population. Some observers have speculated that State Rep. Keith Ingram may challenge Crumbly in Democratic primary.
The final change moves some of the precincts in the Arkadelphia area out of the proposed district held by Sen. Larry Teague and into the proposed district held by Sen. Percy Malone. This proposed open district includes term-limited Rep. Bruce Maloch of Magnolia who said he plans to run for this seat.

One side note – a complaint from some insiders who are following the process is the inability of the Board of Apportionment to provide precinct level data for the proposed maps. The number crunchers need this level of data to fully examine the make-up of the proposed districts. This detail was included in the Congressional redistricting bill during the legislative session. Going through this was how I discovered an error in the bill in the city of Humphries leading to an amendment being offered to correct the oversight. I inquired about obtaining this detail on Tuesday and was told that it would be a few more days before this was available. With the final vote scheduled for Friday, I’m not sure how much time we will have to go through this before the vote.

Beebe’s revised Senate map can be found here.