Tolbert Report

The Tolbert Report

This morning we posted our first attempt at the Talk Business 2012 House Candidate list. Needless to say, putting together a list of candidates for 100 newly drawn districts is a big task, so please bear with us as we iron it out. And let us know if you see any omissions, incorrect additions, misspellings, candidates in the wrong district, or any of about another dozen errors we could have made. If it is a huge error, it is likely Michael Cook’s fault.

One interesting theme to observe is that several Republican incumbents might have primary challenges. As The City Wire already noted the Rep. Denny Altes (R-Fort Smith) may see a primary challenge from Mat Pitsch. In addition, two Republicans from different ends of the Republican politicial spectrum may see a challenge.

Rep. Jonathan Barnett (R-Siloam Springs) drew the angst of many conservatives when he worked with Democratic House Speaker Robert Moore to pass two ballot proposals for tax increases to fund highway improvements. As chairman of the House Transportation Committee and former highway commissioner appointed by Gov. Mike Huckabee, Barnett spearheaded the effort to refer out a constitutional amendment that will raise state sales tax by half a cent to fund a highway bond program. The amendment will appear on the 2012 ballot.

Although she has not said this directly, this largely could be the reason Republican activist Robin Lundstrum is strongly considering challenging Barnett in the upcoming primary. Lundstrum is no stranger to Republican politics. She and her husband, Tom, served as Arkansas delegates to the RNC in 2008 and have been active in Washington County politics for years where Tom is a Justice of the Peace. She is currently working on putting together her campaign team and is likely to announce soon.

Barnett is also rumored to be considering running for the State Senate, but this would also pit him against a fellow Republican – former state representative Jim Hendren, who is running for the open seat currently held by his father, Sen. Kim Hendren. And in an interesting insider baseball twist, facing a primary opponent would force Barnett to resign his party position as National Committeeman as required under RPA Party Rules Section 5(A)(2).

On the other hand, Rep. David Meeks (R-Conway) has become known as one of the most conservative legislators in Little Rock. Elected as part of the tea party movement in 2010, Meeks has done something rare for a politician – he has kept his campaign promises to fight for lower taxes and limited government. Perhaps the most high profile was his bill that sought to prevent enforcement of the federal health care bill requirement mandating health insurance for Arkansans.

Considering a challenge to him in District 70 is University of Central Arkansas political science professor Price Dooley. It is expected that Dooley will announce he is seeking this seat next Tuesday, August 27 at the Hilton Garden Inn in Conway. Dooley tells the Tolbert Report that he feels that "now is the time to come off the sidelines."

Several other open races could be interesting ones to watch. In District 31, incumbent Rep. David Sanders is likely to run for the open Senate District 15. Several names have popped up as possible Republican candidates for his open seat, including Saline County Republican Chairman Brett Hooton of Bryant and executive director of the Tobacco Settlement Commission and owner of Larry’s Pizza West, Aaron Black, of Little Rock.

We will try to keep this list updated as we monitor these races and more announcements trickle in.

Beebe Pushing For Next Steps In Medicaid Reform

In a letter dated August 10, 2011 and obtained today by Talk Business, Gov. Mike Beebe asks U.S. Health and Human Services Secretary Kathleen Sebelius to meet with him regarding an update to "Arkansas’s payment-reform initiative" and "to ensure that our work furthers your national improvement efforts."

"As you know, the Arkansas Health Care Payment Improvement Initiative is moving the health-care financing system from a fee-for-service model to an episode-based, bundled-payment stategy, aligning payment incentives for delivery of high quality, coordinated care and active management of existing conditions, while retaining the actuarial risk of new conditions with Medicaid/private-insurance carriers. The strategy is intended to move the entire Arkansas delivery system to a new and sustainable model of health-care financing and to stimulate needed system reform," writes Beebe in his letter.

Beebe highlights changes made from the initial purpose based on the discussions they have had with stakeholders. Specifically, he highlights several areas that he believes will be the best candidates from moving from fee-for-services to episodic payments including the following: pregnancy and neonatal care, attention deficit hyperacitivity disorder, type 2 diabetes, back pain, cardiovascular disease, upper respiratory infections, developmental disabilities, long-term care, and prevention.

Beebe indicates that Arkansas’ program is the "only statewide payment-reform effort involving all major public-and-private payers." Some of the initial funding for the project has come from BlueCross and BlueShield, which has brought in McKinsey and Company to advise on implementation of the project.

"Rather than make the deep program cuts seen in other states, our goal is to align payment incentives to eliminate inefficiencies and improve coordination and effectiveness of care delivery," concludes Beebe. "We will do this, in large part, by moving away from a fragmented, volume-driven, fee-for-service system to one that pays teams of providers for episodes or bundles of care."

Still, some key questions remain on what appears to be a massive change in the state Medicaid and health care insurance system.

In an intiative that appears to be supported largely by the state and insurance companies (the payers), how much input do the health care providers have (the payees)?

Is the program largely within the control of Gov. Beebe and the executive branch or does the state legislature have oversight?

And perhaps the question many everyday Arkansans wonder: how does the change play into the massive federal overhaul of the health care system through the implementation of ObamaCare?

You can read the full letter here.

No Justice

Like most of Arkansas, I have watched the events taking place in east Arkansas during the last 24 hours in fascinating disbelief. The sudden agreement reached between Prosecutor Scott Ellington and the defense attorneys for the “West Memphis Three” that allowed them to plead guilty while proclaiming their innocence in exchange for their release from prison is shocking.

Arkansas Plans To Apply For An Additional Grant To Plan For Health Care Exchanges

I wrote earlier this week on some of the grants that Arkansas has and has not received regarding setting up state health insurance exchanges as part of the implementation of ObamaCare. Some indicated to me this information needed further clarification, so I communicated via e-mail with Alice Jones with the Arkansas Insurance Commission.

Cotton Makes Nrcc ‘radar’ – Looking Even More Like A Serious Candidate

Tom Cotton continues to impress me that he is a serious candidate for the open Fourth Congressional District. Today, the National Republican Congressional Committee put Cotton on their "On the Radar" list, which among other things, means he has raised over $100,000. Not a bad sum this early in the race. Cotton is one of only six Republicans in the their Young Guns program to make this list for 2012.

For Republicans, Candidate Recruitment Is Key

This morning, we posted the list compiled by Talk Business contributors Roby Brock, Michael Cook, and myself of names we have heard mentioned as possible candidates for State Senate in 2012. We will be updating this list as the election cycle develops and hopefully will also have a House candidate list up soon but since it has about three times the names, it takes a bit longer.

Arkansas Avoids Federal Grant For Health Care Exchanges

In case you missed it, those opposed to the early implementation of ObamaCare in Arkansas had a victory last week when we turned down federal grant money to begin implementing the health care exchanges. (Quick side note here – President Obama said yesterday that he was fine with the term ObamaCare, so I now feel free to use this term to refer to the Federal Health Care Bill.)

Arkansas joins other conservative state such as Kansas, Oklahoma, and Florida in turning down these grants, which the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services sent out to 13 states.

There is one key difference here in Arkansas compared to these states and that is who is responsible. These other states rejected the grants based on the leadership of their conservative governors – Gov. Sam Brownback in Kansas, Gov. Mary Fallin in Oklahoma, and Gov. Rick Scott in Florida. However, in Arkansas, the credit goes to the conservative Republicans and a handful of conservative Democrats in the Arkansas House that stood up to the pressure from the Democratic majority and the Governor’s office by blocking the legislation that would have enabled the Arkansas Insurance Department to accept these funds.

It was with this backdrop that I notice the interesting spin that Gov. Beebe’s spokesman put on this in the Arkansas Democrat-Gazette last week.

“As far as any other federal grants to help the state set up their own health-insurance exchanges, the Legislature made it clear that they wanted the federal government and not the state government to control the establishment of our health-care exchange. The governor has said before that he will not act unilaterally against those wishes, and he does not plan to change that stance,” Beebe spokesman Matt DeCample said.

Nice try, but not quite right. The state legislators opposed to accepting this grant did so as they did not want to spend millions of dollars implementing ObamaCare in Arkansas when the constitutionality of the law is still being challenged in federal court. Just last Friday, we saw that the 11th Circuit Court of Appeals ruled portions of ObamaCare unconstitutional. Obviously, this will eventually make it to the U.S. Supreme Court. If it is upheld, there will be plenty of time to decide how to proceed. Until then, it is a needless waste to spend millions setting up these exchanges.

Noted – A colleague of mine takes a slight issue with my wording saying that in reality the state chose not to apply for the grant last fall as the infrastructure was not yet in place. Then, after the state legislature chose not to set up the infrastructure, they never applied for the grants in the first place. Therefore, it is inaccurate to say they "rejected" the grant.

Fair enough. Hopefully, I have explained it with more clarity now. Either way, you can still credit the Republicans in the House for saving the taxpayers million of dollars by not setting up an exchange that may never go into place. Yeah, I know it’s federal dollars not state dollars, but it is still taxpayer funds.

More Party Switches From Arkansas History

Here is the video below from my appearance on Talk Business this past Sunday. Since it aired, I learned a couple of interesting clarifications to the statement I made regarding Rep. Linda Collins-Smith’s party switch. I said on the show that this was the first Arkansas legislator to switch from the Democratic to Republican Party, but it has been pointed out to me there are actual two interesting other occurences back in the 90’s.

As best I can tell (and I am sure someone will correct if I am wrong), Phil Wyrick of Little Rock was the first Democratic to Republican party switcher in the state legislature. In 1996, then-State Sen. Vic Snyder was elected to his first term in Congress creating an opening for his seat. Democratic Rep. Phil Wyrick had seen the handwriting on the wall and planned to seek the senate seat in a special election, even seeking an AG opinion before the November election on if and how he could do this as an incumbent State Representative. Campaigning for the special election was going to take place over the Christmas holidays and the political parties opted for a convention process versus special primaries to select nominees. Wyrick assessed he wouldn’t get the Democratic nod in the convention process, and the next day, he flipped his party allegiance to the Republicans who adopted him as their nominee. Who did Wyrick assume he’d lose to in the Democratic convention? Interestingly enough, it was Talk Business editor-in-chief Roby Brock, then an upstart Young Democrat.

The only other switch I have been able to track down was Lu Hardin, who never exactly ran as a Republican, but nonetheless did make a high-profile party switch. Hardin served 14 years in the State Senate as a Democrat. In 1996, he ran unsuccessfully in the Democratic primary against Attorney General Winston Bryant who went on to lose in the general election against Republican Tim Hutchinson. In that race, Hardin was criticized for being too conservative, particularly on the right-to-life issue. With Sen. Dale Bumpers’ retirement in 1998 creating another open race for the U.S. Senate that Hardin was rumored to be considering, he switched to the Republican Party. Ultimately, he did not run but instead was appointed as Director of the Department of Higher Education by then-Gov. Mike Huckabee. Of course, all of this was before his infamous days as President of the University of Central Arkansas in Conway.

There is also of course several other examples from the 1990’s outside the state legislature, as well as former Congressman Tommy Robinson, former Democratic Prosecuting Attorney Betty Dickey who ran as a Republican for Attorney General against Mark Pryor, and former Democratic state auditor Julia Hughes Jones who ran as a Republican for Secretary of State in 1994 against Sharon Priest. Any others I am missing? Let me know.

Bachmann Wins Iowa Straw Poll – Paul A Close Second – Perry Announces

It was an eventful day in Republican Presidential politics that for the most part went exactly as most expected.

Dems Super Pac Plans Ad Attacking Griffin (updated)

Last week, I reported on the targeting of Congressman Tim Griffin by the DCCC, including an ad buy and a website focused on turning out protesters to his town halls. Turns out the ad buy was around $750 of radio, and so far, the protesters have not shown up at his town halls. Frustrated by this, the liberal blogs instead have tried to make a story about handouts that Griffin distributed at his town halls regarding protesters.

It’s funny really. First, they accused him of keeping the town halls secret. When that turned out not to be the case, they accused him of keeping them civil.

Anyway, according to a press release this morning, the Democratic Super PAC – House Majority PAC – is planning a large ad buy on Griffin. I have not seen the ad yet, but it will likely be posted to their YouTube channel here eventually. Roll Call has an article on the PAC here. The PAC was formed largely to combat the ads from Karl Rove’s Crossroads GPS, which ran ads targeting Congressman Mike Ross the week before he announced he was not running for re-election.

They claim the ad buy is in the hundreds of thousands of dollars, but this raises the question: Do the Democrats even have an opponent to run against Griffin yet? If they are spending this much money, perhaps Halter has given them a reason to believe he might run after all.

Griffin’s campaign already responded, posting on thier official twitter account – "Help Tim fight the attack from @NancyPelosi’s Dem Super PAC friends! Please give at http://bit.ly/giveTG."

UPDATE – Sources familar with the ad buy tell me the placement is around $36k of cable only, no broadcast. Contrast this to the $128k spent by Crossroads on both broadcast and cable and this is a much smaller buy. It appears most of the ad buy will be focused on Rep. Scott Tipton of Colorado.

Here is the ad below. It is a cookie cuter ad. Nothing new. Hits him for voting for Cut, Cap, and Balance, the Ryan Plan, and a measure to reduce spending to 2008 levels. The votes referrenced were supported by almost every House Republican.

Watching Iowa From Arkansas

The next couple of days will lead to major events in Iowa impacting the Republican 2012 Presidential race, including tonight’s Fox News debate and the Ames Straw Poll on Saturday.

We have already seen Mitt Romney have an interesting "Corporations are people, my friend" moment with a heckler at the state fair, which sort of reminded me of Charlton Heston in Soylent Green. Tomorrow, Sarah Palin will be making a surprise stop on her bus tour. It is not completely clear exactly why – something about preferring fried butter-on-a-stick to peas. Mike Huckabee will also be making the round airing his Fox News show live and playing the bass guitar at the booths of candidates that he likes.

Here is my take on how the events can affect the candidates from a right-leaning blogger located 600 miles away. For insight from Iowa bloggers, I would recommend Iowa Independent and Iowa Republican.

Michelle Bachmann – Expectations for Bachmann are sky-high going down the stretch. Since the last debate a couple of weeks ago, she has become the Iowa "non-Romney" front-runner. Anything less than a first-place finish in the straw poll and a solid debate performance could burst her bubble.

Ron Paul – Mark my words, Paul will do well at the straw poll. His supporters are die-hard and would walk through walls to vote for him. The problem for Paul is that he shows no signs of being able to attract support from the other 80 to 90 percent of the party. His supporters will have a big weekend, but it very well could be the high point of their campaign.

Tim Pawlenty – In my opinion, this weekend is "make-or-break" for Pawlenty. He has completely fallen off the map in the last couple of months and a poor showing in Thursday’s debate and/or the straw poll will all but end his chances. However, unlike Bachmann, the expectations for Pawlenty are very low. A third place finish could be a glimmer of hope that keeps him alive for another day, but anything less and he really ought to drop out.

Breakout candidates – There is a chance for a long list of candidates to surprise folks with a strong showing. Rick Santorum probably stands the best chance of doing this as he appeals to the socially conservative Iowa Republican voter. Herman Cain could get a small boost from the FairTax group, although they are not providing him anywhere close to the support they provided Huckabee four years ago. Newt Gingrich could also surprise people, but I doubt it. I have not figured out why he is still running.

Mitt Romney – Romney is still the national frontrunner, but is making the conscious decision to ignore Iowa. After tonight’s debate, he is leaving Iowa and heading to New Hampshire. Iowans do not like to be ignored and he will probably pay the price at the straw poll.

Rick Perry – The elephant not in the room is Perry. Virtually everyone expects him to announce he is running for President at blogger Erik Erikson’s RedState Gathering in South Carolina on Saturday around 1:00 EST, which is about the same time the speeches begin at the Iowa Straw Poll (see schedule here.) Perry is polling well, raising a ton of money, and building out a campaign team. Will he get in the race and become a frontrunner to rival Romney or will he be this cycle’s Fred Thompson?

It’s going to be fun to watch. Make sure and follow my live-blogging twitter account @HyperTolbert if you want my live blog comments on all the debate performances and the events this weekend.

Cotton Would Have Opposed Final Debt Deal

Tom Cotton, who is currently the only announced candidate for the Fourth Congressional District open seat for either party, appeared on KARN’s Dave Elswick show yesterday afternoon where he answered questions from listeners for over an hour.

Tolbert: Rep. Collins-Smith Joins Republican Ranks

The last couple of weeks Republican insiders have been abuzz about a possible party switch of a state legislator from the Democratic to the Republican Party. The Arkansas News Bureau reports that the Republican Party has a news conference scheduled for Wednesday morning at the state capitol and this is likely the subject of the conference. Indeed, the Arkansas GOP put out a press release that it will hold a press conference on Wednesday at 10:45. In addition to House and party leadership, a "special guest" will be in attendance.

Senator Boozman Launches Arkpac

Sen. John Boozman announced in an e-mail to supporters this morning that he is launching his own political action committee called Arkansas for Leadership Political Action Committee (ARKPAC.)

Rep. Woods Comments On Friend John Brown – Killed In Action

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State Rep. Jon Woods (R-Springdale) appeared on MSNBC today discussing his good friend, John Brown, who was one of the Navy SEALs killed in the attacks in Afghanistan this weekend.

"John was the ideal soldier," Woods tells the Tolbert Report. "He was physically fit, extremely smart and had a great sense of humor. We lived down the street from each other in high school. We would walk home from school together on some days after long days of basketball practice & track. We would watch SNL every Saturday night before going out with our friends on Saturday nights."

"It’s been a long weekend and he will be truly missed. If the Seal team 6 looked anything like him, then I can’t imagine what was running through Osama Bin Laden’s mind during the raid on the compound," said Woods.

Sgt. John Brown and fellow Arkansan Navy Master Chief Tommy Ratzlaff were both killed in an attack on their helicopter while attempting to rescue fellow soldiers in Afghanistan. Gov. Mike Beebe has ordered state flags to be flown at half mast in their honor.

Lessons From Sunday School: Politicians Very Unpopular

I noticed a bit of anecdotal evidence of the huge discontent towards politicians this morning in Sunday School.

Fairtax Re-thinks Backing Miike Huckabee In 2007 Iowa Straw Poll

The Iowa Presidential straw poll in Ames is all about expectations. In 2007, Mitt Romney was expected to run away with it. He won, but not before Mike Huckabee produced a surprisingly strong second place showing. This upset put him on the map and was the beginning of his move from a second-tier candidate to a contender who ended up winning the Iowa Caucus the following January.

Libertarian Party Filing Shows A Lot Of Out-of-state Funding (updated)

In May, the Libertarian Party of Arkansas pulled off the difficult task of qualifying for third party ballot access in Arkansas by submitting petitions with well over the 10,000 signatures required. How were they able to pull off such a feat? Their financial report filed in July sheds some light on this.

Democrats Begin Targeting Congressman Griffin

Home fresh from the heated debate in Washington over the debt ceiling, Congressman Tim Griffin is finding himself in the crosshairs of liberal groups and national Democratic groups as well.

On Thursday, Griffin was the first from the Arkansas delegation – and perhaps one of the first nationwide – to begin hosting their regular August townhalls to the public to ask questions and hear directly from their Congressman. Griffin’s office sent out several press releases, appeared on local talk radio, posted on Facebook and Twitter, and even had several announcements appear in the news, yet mysteriously the national liberal blog, Daily Kos, ran a story yesterday entitled "Congressman Griffin to Hold Secret Town Hall Meetings" (They’ve since deleted the story, but here is the article courtesy of Google Cached pages.)

You can read about the townhall from several media sources who attended the not-so-secret town halls, but of course, I would recommend Talk Business Roby Brock’s report complete with video. Griffin has eleven more "Jump Starting Jobs Tour" events this month which are detailed here.

Joining the far left in their attacks is the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee which announced today they are launching a campaign targeting Griffin. From their press release…

Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) is launching an aggressive “Accountability August” grassroots and paid campaign to hold Representative Tim Griffin (AR-02) accountable for “choosing Millionaires over Medicare.” The DCCC will launch radio ads to hold Griffin accountable for voting to end Medicare and raise seniors’ health care costs in order to protect tax breaks for millionaires and subsidies for Big Oil. As part of the DCCC’s “Drive for 25” campaign to win the House, the DCCC will hold 44 Republicans, including Griffin accountable for their wrong priorities. Week one of Accountability August begins on Monday with these radio ads.

They also have a website called MillionairesOverMedicare.com where they will be encouraging protesters to show up at Griffin’s townhalls. So that should be fun.

Speaking of radio ads, the Republican Party of Arkansas has a radio ad out right now as well, profiling the back-to-school sales tax holiday this weekend. Rep. Matthew Shepherd (R-El Dorado) worked hard in the last session (getting a lot of bipartisan support, I might add) to get this passed.

Coleman To Advise Secretary Of State Mark Martin (update)

Secretary of State Mark Martin has had a rocky start to his time in office, but rest assured – help is on the way. The Tolbert Report confirmed Thursday night that former Republican candidate for U.S. Senate, Curtis Coleman, is forming a committee that will be reviewing the office processes and advising them on how to make improvements.

According to office spokesman Mark Myers, Secretary Martin approached Coleman about the idea a couple of months ago. As part of the consulting work from the Soderquist Center, Martin asked Coleman to form a committee that would help review and advise the office. Myers stated that the committee’s mission will be "to make sure everything we do fits inside that conservative framework that we campaigned on."

The committee will be made up of around nine people who will review job descriptions and see if they match up to the person in that position.

"They will be reviewing if our office is doing everything we are constitutionally required to do and also if we are doing anything we should not be doing," said Myers.

Coleman and members of the committee he is heading up will be unpaid volunteers.

UPDATE – The Secretary of State’s office released the full list of the committee today. All ten names have a markedly Republican bent – former Republican state representatives Dan Greenberg and (and Coleman’s brother-in-law) Sid Rosenbaum, former spokesman for Gov. Huckabee (and borther-in-law) Jim Harris, Washington County Republican JP Tom Lumdstrum, and Faulkner County Tea Party organizer David Crow. Two members were contributors to Coleman’s Senate campaign including Tom Bryant and Dan Hebert, and Julie Harris worked for Coleman’s campaign. Hebert and Harris both serve as board members for the Curtis Coleman Institute for Constitutional Policy. One other committee member John Scott Bull of Fayetteville has contributed to Republicans candidates such as John Boozman and George Bush.

This is nothing against any of these individuals – many of which I know to be fine Arkansans. But it is notable considering Martin campaign pledge to make the Secretary of State’s office non-partisan.