Talk Politics

Covering Arkansas Politics

Boozman Weighs In On Congressional Redistricting

U.S. Senator John Boozman (R) says Fayetteville should remain in the Third Congressional District, his former House seat.

Kuar: State Budget Legislation Unveiled

Arkansas’ $4.6 billion balanced budget has been agreed upon by legislative leaders and the Governor after a weekend of negotiations.

Bill To Regulate Federal Health Care Reform Passes Committee 11-7

The only new wrinkle in the debate over state regulation of federal health care reform were the 11 yes votes in the room.

Sides for and against the new federal law overseeing health care implementation raised the same arguments they’ve been raising for months. Supporters want the state to control its implementation of federal health care, while opponents argued that Arkansas regulators can wait until the federal courts decide the issue’s constitutionality.

HB 2138 was voted out of a packed House Insurance and Commerce committee room on a party line vote of 11-7. Two representatives who did not vote on Friday cast votes for the bill today: Rep. Keith Ingram (D-West Memphis) and Rep. Bobby Pierce (D-Sheridan). The bill must now pass the full House and State Senate.

"This bill is in the best interest of Arkansans," said the bill’s sponsor, Rep. Fred Allen (D-Little Rock).

Former State Rep. Dan Greenberg argued that the committee was rushing to pass "a radical transformation" of the health care system. "It’s going to transform the doctor-patient relationship," Greenberg said.

He also suggested that lawmakers only have to "show progress" on the issue by January 2013. "All that’s required is that we have to be on track," Greenberg said.

Ray Handley, President of the Arkansas Foundation for Medical Care and a former Hewlett Packard executive who helped build health insurance exchanges in other states, said that the insurance exchanges that HB 2138 would begin planning for will help consumers.

"The best analogy I’ve seen – they are for insurance what Travelocity is for plane tickets," Handley said. "If done right, this will let the consumer log on [and] shop for comparisons."

Glen Gallas, a small businessman from Hot Springs, TEA Party activist and former GOP Congressional candidate, said that he had a "definite and vested interest" in the issue.

"I think as legislators it’s fundamentally wrong to pass a law that doesn’t have details worked out," Gallas said. "We remember what happened to a sitting senator who voted against the citizens and voted against the will of the people on health care."

Insurance Commissioner Jay Bradford said, "All of this political drama is about the federal bill that doesn’t have anything to do with this. What we have to do to take care of our people is that we have to demonstrate that we can do the planning process."

Rep. Allen spoke to Talk Business after the meeting about his plans for moving the bill forward in this video.

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Brummett: 2012 Elections Could Boost “conservative Advantage”

Political columnist John Brummett with our content partner, the Arkansas News Bureau, says that between redistricting, taxes, the Presidential election climate and 2010 GOP gains, the next election cycle could be another watershed year for Republicans.

Brawner: Prison Reform A Good Step; Medicaid Next?

Arkansas News Bureau columnist Steve Brawner compares the state’s efforts to reform prisons with future efforts towards Medicaid.

He’s complimentary of the Governor’s efforts to make changes to the state’s prison system and sentencing reforms.

The reforms represent a revolutionary idea — actually cutting real government spending instead of nibbling around the edges. Legislators deserve a pat on the back for making the very grown-up decision that the state’s resources are not unlimited and that it shouldn’t spend what it doesn’t have.

They’ll need more support when a parolee who would have been in prison under the old system murders someone. When that inevitably happens, those 14 House members and other opponents will have their I-told-you-sos ready, though they still won’t explain where they would have found that $875 million.

Brawner wonders if legislators and the Governor can find similar consensus on changes to the state’s Medicaid system, which is about a year and a half away from a major fiscal crisis.

Like prison reform, this idea would create a lot of opposition. But unlike prison reform, that opposition would not go away. One in four Arkansans is on Medicaid, and that’s a lot of voters. Medical providers would claim that they already aren’t compensated enough for the care they provide Medicaid patients — and they would have a point.

But as with the state’s prison system, Medicaid costs are rising so fast that they’ll drown the budget in red ink. That is, unless somebody does something more than just talk about it.

You can read more of Brawner’s thoughts at this link.

So How Democratic Is Washington County?

One of the primary arguments between those involved in the great "Fayetteville to the Fourth" Congressional redistricting debate is that the map pulls a large number of Democrats – even liberal Democrats – from the Third District into the Fourth.

But how Democratic are voters in the Washington County precincts in question?

An analysis of 2010 election returns for the 54 Washington County precincts in the "Fayetteville to the Fourth" map sends a mixed signal.

Gov. Mike Beebe won handily in the precincts over GOP challenger Jim Keet by a 13,053 to 6,214 margin. Green Party nominee Jim Lendall recorded 609 votes in one of the few areas of the state with a concentration of Green Party voters.

That equates to Beebe pulling 66% to Keet’s 31% and Lendall’s 3%. Beebe outperformed his statewide percentage of 64.4% in the Washington County precincts and Keet underperformed his statewide percentage by a small margin, about 2.5% below.

Clearly, a sign of some Democratic strength.

But Democratic Third District Congressional nominee David Whitaker and incumbent Democratic U.S. Sen. Blanche Lincoln didn’t fare so well in the bastion of Democratic voters, although both did better than their districtwide or statewide performances.

GOP Cong. Steve Womack handily defeated Whitaker by a 11,375 to 8,440 margin, or 57% to 43%. Certainly, the 43% Whitaker received is far better than his 28% district-wide performance, but still a sub-par showing for a Fayetteville resident Democrat.

Lincoln only pulled 42% of the vote – 8,359 votes – in her Senate re-election bid against GOP candidate and then-3rd District Cong. John Boozman, who received 53% or 10,612 votes. Nearby Mayor of Greenland John Gray, the Green Party nominee, scored 681 votes, or 3.4% of the vote, with the rest going to Independent Trevor Drown.

For Lincoln, her 42% was an improvement on her statewide 37% performance.

Of course, there are some stronger Democratic performing metropolitan regions in the state. For instance, Beebe carried Jefferson County with 78% of the vote and Lincoln garnered 60%. In Pulaski County, Beebe pulled 70%, while Lincoln settled at just over 51%.

The numbers in southern Washington County do show that Democrats perform better in these precincts than their districtwide or statewide percentages — not by much in some instances. They also show that Republicans can win the precincts in question by sizable margins. It may just depend on the candidate.

The Latest Salvos In The ‘fayetteville To The Fourth’ Debate (updated)

Dueling facebooks, competing proposals, interactive web sites – the "Fayetteville to the Fourth" map continues to stir the political debate.

Also referred to as the "Fayetteville Finger" or the "Pig Trail Gerrymander," there’s not a lot of gray opinion on the Congressional redistricting plan advanced by House Democrats in committee on Wednesday.

Today, House State Agencies Chair Rep. Clark Hall (D-Marvell) released a lengthy statement, which you can read here, to discuss the logic that constructed the plan.

"There were strong voices in areas of the state such as Fort Smith, Russellville and Harrison that wanted to remain in their historic home in the 3rd Congressional District and there were passionate voices on both sides of the issue in Washington County," Hall said.

In truth, there are going to be "passionate voices" in every map drawn. You won’t find many, if any, Democratic partisans to say it on the record, but the map aims to meet the goal of balancing the numbers required by the Census with the goal of drawing Congressional Districts that would lean at least two of the four districts to Democrats and two to Republicans.

Clearly, the Third remains Republican under the "Fayetteville to the Fourth" plan and the Second actually becomes more Republican with the addition of Hot Springs Village. The First District gaining southern Delta counties and losing Baxter County increases its Democratic performance, while the Fourth picks up a swath of would-be Democratic voters.

The two political parties have sparred all week over the issue. On Friday, the bill was not run on the House floor. Speaker Robert Moore conceded that the votes needed were not firmed up, but Talk Business sources indicated that talks over the weekend could garner House votes and possibly find a compromise with Senate members, who have yet to take up a plan.

One source involved in the negotiations said the House plan "won’t change much" implying that the Washington County shift to the Fourth and the alignment of Southeastern Arkansas counties are likely to remain intact. Baxter County could be a negotiating point.

Also on Friday, the Arkansas GOP launched a web site and Facebook page to highlight the “raw partisan politics," according to state GOP chairman Doyle Webb.

Democratic Party chairman Will Bond stated earlier in the week that Republicans were being partisan. “The plans that Republican lawmakers have put forward are incumbent protection plans. Republicans have attempted to politicize the process by making the maps only about their incumbent office holders,” he said.

Interestingly, a Facebook page has been started by supporters of the plan in the Fayetteville area. Steve Smith, a former chief of staff to then-Gov. Bill Clinton and husband of former Democratic State Rep. Lindsley Smith, is the organizer.

"We support the common good and common sense of the plan that moves Arkansas’s 4th Congressional District boundaries to include Fayetteville," the Facebook page says.

"We can have that advantage of twice the representation for Northwest Arkansas if we are smart enough to take it: double the clout and double the muster representing us in Washington for the next decade. We just cannot let partisans or those averse to change mess it up."

UPDATE: And the e-mail and Facebook exchanges continue.

Late Friday, freshman Rep. Jon Hubbard (R-Jonesboro) responded to Rep. Hall’s letter released earlier by e-mail.

Hubbard accused Hall of "playground bullying tactics" in the operation of the State Agencies Committee during redistricting and he clearly disagrees with the "Fayetteville to the Fourth" plan.

"Your map is not only a terrible option, but a blatant attempt to circumvent the 2012 and future Congressional elections in this state. This is a perfect example of the dirty political games that have become the norm in AR politics," said Hubbard’s e-mail.

"Hopefully one of these days we will elect people to the Legislature who realize and understand that the public is getting sick and tired of the same old dirty political games that have been played far too long. If this happens, maybe we will finally come to the realization that our purpose for being here is to represent the ‘Will of the People’, and not to protect the power of a certain political party," Hubbard added.

You can read his full comments here.

Also, State Sen. Sue Madison (D-Fayetteville), who has been sharply criticized by her local chamber president, former Arkansas Attorney General Steve Clark, countered Clark’s claims that Madison could single-handedly stop the controversial redistricting plan. She also responded on her Facebook page to his charge that she was not representing her district.

"If it was so important to Mr. Clark that I attend this meeting, then why didn’t he contact me and ask me to attend? He has yet to contact me to discuss ANY issues during this entire legislative session," said Madison, noting she was running bills in other committees.

"I also take great offense that Mr. Clark has publicly accused me of ignoring my constituents and forgetting the people of Fayetteville. This couldn’t be farther from the truth," she added.

You can read all of Madison’s complete remarks here.

State Implementation Of Health Care Fails In Committee

House Insurance and Commerce committee members failed to pass a bill to allow Arkansas control of federal health care reform despite amendments to mollify opponents’ concerns.

On a 10-7 roll call vote, HB 2138 by Rep. Fred Allen (D-Little Rock) failed. It needed 11 votes to pass the committee. The vote split along party lines with Rep. Keith Ingram (D-West Memphis) being the only present member to abstain. Rep. Jonathan Barnett (R-Siloam Springs) and Rep. Bobby Pierce (D-Sheridan) were not in attendance.

Ingram told Talk Business after the vote that he "wasn’t prepared to vote on it" today.

HB 2138 outlines how Arkansas regulators would structure rate reviews and create insurance exchanges required by the new federal health care law. State officials contend they are under a Jan. 2013 deadline to show progress towards implementing aspects of the new law and they need regulatory authority meet that date. Without state control, they argue that federal administrators will set Arkansas’ health exchange and rate review rules.

Arkansas officials have obtained about $2 million in federal grants for planning purposes.

Opponents of the measure have argued that the state can wait until the federal courts rule on the constitutionality of the health care law before moving further forward.

Two amendments added to the bill this week included a provision to halt all planning on the state’s health care implementation if the Supreme Court declares the federal law unconstitutional. A second amendment delayed any future spending beyond current grant money until November 15, 2011 or "unless approved by all appropriate legislative bodies." It still allowed the state to pursue future federal funding.

Arkansas Insurance Commissioner Jay Bradford, who has advocated for state control, said 80% of the rules and regulations to implement health care reform have not been promulgated at the federal level. He wanted regulatory authority through the Insurance Commission to be able to adapt.

"We all know that there are going to be some dramatic changes at the federal level," Bradford said. "That’s why we wanted to try to give us flexibility."

Bradford said "at least 45 states" have accepted planning grant money like Arkansas.

The bill’s defeat will not stop the implementation of federal health care reform in Arkansas, Bradford said. He contends that the federal government will now dictate Arkansas’ rules unless the bill is resurrected.

"It would appear that the will of the state legislature is for the federal government to control Arkansans’ health care," he said after the meeting.

Opponents of the bill and federal health care reform in attendance at today’s meeting cheered the vote.

Teresa Oelke with Americans for Prosperity’s Arkansas chapter disagreed with Bradford’s assessment and said there is still time for the state implementation to be considered in interim study.

"As long as the state shows progress towards an exchange – and we have time to do that – it doesn’t have to be rushed through. We should look at it this summer and have input from a diverse number of people," she argued

Arkansas’ February Unemployment Rate Unchanged

Arkansas’ February unemployment rate remained unchanged at 7.8% from January. One year ago, Arkansas’ jobless rate was 8%.

The U.S. unemployment rate fell one-tenth of a point to 8.9%.

Arkansas’ nonfarm payroll jobs increased 8,400 in February to total 1,161,000.

Arkansas Dept. of Workforce Services Communications Director Kimberly Friedman said, “Over the year, the number of employed Arkansans rose 15,800. This expansion is partly related to increased employment in service-providing industries.”

GAINERS & LOSERS

The largest monthly gain occurred in professional and business services, up 4,700 jobs for the month. Most of the increase was related to additions at employment agencies and seasonal gains in accounting and bookkeeping services.

The government sector added 4,000 jobs, as public school employment returned to normal after the winter break.

The largest decline occurred in manufacturing, down 1,400 workers, with losses in both nondurable and durable goods manufacturing. Jobs in construction fell by 1,100.

Road Tax Votes Split Conservatives

Measures to advance two potential road proposals drew bipartisan support and conservative condemnation on Thursday.

HJR 1001 by Rep. Jonathan Barnett (R-Siloam Springs) would allow voters to decide if a half-cent sales tax for four-lane highways should be increased. The 10-year, $1.8 billion proposal would be voted on in the November 2012 general election.

Barnett’s constitutional referral passed the full House on a 62-25 margin. Eleven House members did not vote and one member voted present. Twenty-three of the 25 no votes were Republican; however, 13 Republicans also supported the proposal. The proposed constitutional amendment must still pass through the State Senate.

HB 1902 by House Speaker Robert Moore (D-Arkansas City) had a roller coaster ride in the Senate. The bill, which controversially passed out of committee earlier in the week only to be re-referred, was amended in committee on Thursday.

HB 1902 would call for an election to allow voters to decide whether or not to increase a 5-cent diesel fuel tax. The proposal is supported by the state trucking association and would raise about $1.1 billion for interstate construction and repair, if approved by voters. Speaker Moore has touted his proposal and Barnett’s as a package for improving state highways.

Senate GOP amendments were added to Moore’s bill to limit the number of potential special election attempts to one and to provide an exemption for agricultural vehicles. That allowed HB 1902 to narrowly pass out of the Senate Transportation Committee, which is dominated by Republicans 5 to 3.

The full Senate chose to handle the bill later in the day and it passed with no votes to spare 18-12. Despite Republican amendments being added and the bill passing out of the GOP-dominated committee, no Republicans supported it on the Senate floor and at least one member from the committee who added an amendment, Sen. Bruce Holland (R-Greenwood), spoke against it.

In effect, the GOP members who could have killed it in committee, allowed it to escape. HB 1902 must return to the House to concur the Senate amendments, so another fight may still await.

The votes and actions by Republican legislators resulted in backlash from members of conservative groups who criticized the votes cast as supporting tax increases.

Americans for Prosperity’s Arkansas chapter followed the road tax debate on its Twitter account. The group organizes grassroots leaders and citizens "in the name of limited government and free markets." It has been a vocal opponent of tax increases. AFP posted a "tweet" critical of Sen. Holland’s actions.

Flip flop of the day: Senator Bruce Holland. Voting FOR diesel tax increase and now speaking against it

Conservative radio talk show host Dave Elswick of KARN-102.9 FM has advocated a number of Republican causes in the session, including lower taxes and less government regulation. He opened two threads on his Facebook page that drew a number of heated responses. The posts read:

State Rep Rice says he like to b speaker. After his vote 4 taxes 2day, I say NO. How bout other conservatives. What say u?

It is time to seperate the wheat from the chaff. The REAL conservatives do not vote 2.8 Billion n taxes forward.

Conservative blogger Jason Tolbert with our content partner, The Tolbert Report, also raised the issue of Rice’s vote.

"Among the Republicans voting for the measure was Rep. Terry Rice (R-Waldron) who has indicated he plans to run for Speaker of the House next year. Could this vote help him get Democrat members votes or hurt his support within his own caucus?" Tolbert asked.

You can read more at this link.

Senator Attempts To Halt Federal Health Care Spending

State Sen. Jason Rapert (R-Bigelow) made an effort to stop state expenditures of federal health care money in Jt. Budget Committee this morning.

Rapert offered an amendment to HB 1226 which would create a separate account for all federal money received by the state to implement health care reform. Rapert’s amendment also stated that the state "shall not" spend any money for the purpose of implementing the new federal health care law.

Rapert argued that the state had 21 months to fully enact aspects of health care reform and that the state should wait until the federal courts make a final ruling on the issue.

State Sens. Joyce Elliott (D-Little Rock) and Linda Chesterfield (D-Little Rock) questioned a halt to the spending. Rep. Buddy Lovell (D-Marked Tree) referred to House Insurance and Commerce Committee testimony on Wednesday that indicated the state could not wait 21 months to move forward with health insurance exchanges and other aspects of the federal law.

The amendment failed on a voice vote. Republican members called for a roll call vote, but the motion to amend only received 8 votes on the 56-member budget panel.

After the roll call, Rapert released his hold on the Insurance Department budget.

Legal Wrangling On Redistricting Begins

With only one plan approved by a House committee, partisan exchanges are already being fired to stake out legal positions on an issue of Congressional redistricting.

Yesterday’s passage of the "Fayetteville to the Fourth" plan by Reps. Clark Hall (D-Marvell) and Eddie Cheatham (D-Crossett) quickly drew the ire of the Arkansas GOP.

Chairman Doyle Webb issued a statement after the vote accusing Democrats of playing partisan politics.

“The pig trail gerrymander is the State Democratic Party’s desperate attempt to hold on to power in the face of a resounding defeat at the polls last November. The Democratic Party is using Washington-style tactics and parliamentary ploys to reverse the will of Arkansas voters who chose to have a majority Republican congressional delegation," Webb said in the release.

“State Democrats have no desire to create an open and honest dialogue with the people of Arkansas concerning the redistricting process. The Democratic Party’s abuse of power to protect their own self interests reeks of partisan machine politics. The Republican Party had hoped the Legislature could complete this critical process in a bi-partisan manner, but if litigation is necessary we are prepared to file suit to protect the interests of all Arkansans,” Webb said.

That prompted a response from Democratic Party of Arkansas Chairman Will Bond, who denounced the Republican Party’s threat of a lawsuit over redistricting as merely a political ploy.

“It is ironic that the first thing the Republican party screams about redistricting is the threat of a lawsuit instead of focusing on the merits of ‘one person, one vote’ and instead of explaining why Republican plans, particularly the one in the Senate, has significant variances in population and seeks to destroy the Delta region,” said Bond.

“The plans that Republican lawmakers have put forward are incumbent protection plans. Republicans have attempted to politicize the process by making the maps only about their incumbent office holders,” he added.

Bond said that Hall’s and Cheatham’s plan was the the closest to "one person, one vote," a threshold needed to avoid certain legal defeat. All of the plans presented, Democratic and Republican had district variances of less than one percent.

Bond added, “Redistricting is a difficult process, filled with tough choices. Republican threats of lawsuits are only meant to try improve some political polling numbers for Republican officeholders and does nothing to help the people of Arkansas or the policy debate.”

Many eyes have been focused on how Attorney General Dustin McDaniel will handle the threat of litigation. The AG will have to defend the final Congressional District map approved by the legislature.

Republicans were critical of McDaniel based on comments made by Rep. Hall in committee on Wednesday. When asked by a committee member, Hall claimed McDaniel would defend his plan if it became law.

That brought a stern rebuke from state GOP spokeswoman Katherine Vasilos.

“It’s shameful that Attorney General Dustin McDaniel would rush to defend an unfair, partisan attempt for his party to retain power. While he opposed countless bills this legislative session under the threat of a lawsuit, Attorney General McDaniel has no problem defending the selfish interests of the State Democratic Party," she said.

McDaniel declared his formal position today, "I must assume that any congressional redistricting plan approved by the General Assembly will be challenged in court. Wednesday was the first time I had seen the plans presented to the House State Agencies Committee.

"Our office has repeatedly reminded legislators that population equality is the main standard that must be met in court. It is important to note that I disagree with any assertion that a 1 percent population variance among districts is acceptable. In my opinion, 1 percent will not cut it. Currently, at least 25 states have deviations of less than 10 people. I will continue to warn the General Assembly of its litigation risks.

"Assuming populations are equal, the fights appear to be political and are between the political parties, legislators and members of Congress. I reiterate my duty to defend any Act of the General Assembly, whether I agree with it or not," McDaniel said.

Concerns over the "Fayetteville to the Fourth" plan may be short-lived. Republicans are attempting to persuade Democratic members of the House to not support the plan. With a small majority margin, it wouldn’t take much to pull support below the necessary 50%, as we’ve previously reported.

Meanwhile, in the State Senate, a compromise plan between Republicans and Democrats is being discussed. Earlier today, State Sen. Johnny Key (R-Mountain Home) and State Sen. Robert Thompson (D-Paragould) were seen working on map details. Key confirmed later to Talk Business that discussions for a bipartisan compromise on the Senate’s end were taking place. The earliest legislation might be presented in the Senate State Agencies Committee is Monday. Rep. Hall has said that he may run his "Fayetteville to the Fourth" plan in the full House as early as Friday.

Here It Is: The ‘fayetteville To The Fourth’ Map (updated)

Talk Business has obtained a copy of the much-discussed Congressional redistricting map advocated by several lawmakers, including House State Agencies Chairman Clark Hall (D-Marvell).

Congressional Redistricting: Afterthoughts & The Aftermath

After Wednesday’s move by Democrats to successfully push their "Fayetteville to the Fourth" Congressional redistricting plan out of the House State Agencies Committee, there are a variety of questions and comments to pull into a cohesive post.

First, there were strong reactions from GOP leaders.

Using phrases like "gerrymander," "abuse of power" and "partisan machine politics," Arkansas GOP chairman Doyle Webb said he’s prepared to file a lawsuit to challenge the map if it passes the legislature.

“The Republican Party had hoped the Legislature could complete this critical process in a bi-partisan manner, but if litigation is necessary we are prepared to file suit to protect the interests of all Arkansans,” Webb said.

As a side note of commentary, we would suggest that whatever plan is passed will be challenged in court by some interest group not satisfied with the outcome. The legal parameters of these cases is a post for another day.

Third District Cong. Steve Womack (R-Rogers) called the "Fayetteville to the Fourth" plan "absurd," even though he stands to gain politically from the redrawn lines.

In an interview with our content partner, The City Wire, Womack said, “With this plan, we have a very low seed that is apparently still in the game against several top seed teams. You can say that this redefines March madness."

Womack said there are many good plans that have been floated, and he has been committed to staying out of the discussion — with one exception.

“I’ve been on record all along during this as saying that all I will do is cry foul against something that is silly,” Womack explained.

Fourth District Cong. Mike Ross (D-Prescott) chimed in on the redistricting plan and process on Thursday morning, but took a pretty neutral stance:

“By law, it is the state legislature that sets the congressional district boundaries for our state and I will not comment on any redistricting bill out of respect for the process. The Fourth Congressional District doesn’t belong to me, but rather it belongs to the people of Arkansas and I will respect the decision made by our state legislators. My job is to be an effective representative and voice for the people of Arkansas’s Fourth Congressional District, something I’ve done and will continue to do regardless of its boundaries,” Ross said.

*****

Attention now turns to the House floor. Rep. Clark Hall (D-Marvell), chair of the House State Agencies Committee, says he hopes to run his redistricting bill on Friday. Democrats have a 54-45 advantage over Republicans in the House, so they have the power to ride roughshod over the GOP.

Do they have the political will and can they hold their votes?

The Legislative Black Caucus leader, Rep. Tracy Steele (D-Little Rock), says of the caucus – "we’re on board."

Republicans have to peel 4 votes off the Democratic rolls and here are some likely targets.

In the House committee, Rep. John Vines (D-Hot Springs) was silent during the roll call vote suggesting that he may either abstain or be a potential "no" vote. Of course, Democrats could hold him, too.

Rep. Uvalde Lindsey (D-Fayetteville) was apparently prepared to testify against Hall’s bill in committee before the vote. He says he is "a firm no" and that he isn’t changing his mind.

Rep. Greg Leding (D-Fayetteville) is considered a potential peel-off for the GOP on this vote, but Leding tells Talk Business that "he’s thinking about it."

"We fit geographically better in the Third, but everybody has a connection to Fayetteville, and we’ll make it work wherever we are. Fayetteville will be just fine," Leding said in a text message Wednesday night.

Assuming all 3 of those votes could be persuaded, a fourth unknown Democratic vote would have to step forward.

House Speaker Robert Moore (D-Arkansas City), who usually doesn’t cast a vote while presiding, tells Talk Business he would cast the decisive 51st vote if necessary.

"The plan that the committee came out of here with today, I’ve obviously looked at it," said Speaker Moore. "I’m content that this is a good proposal."

House Minority Leader John Burris (R-Harrison) admits that the votes are in the Democrats’ favor.

"It’s kind of hard to have a strategy. They have a strategy and that kind of dictates ours," he said.

When asked if he thought the Democrats could hold at least 51 votes in the House, Burris added, "I think it’s going to be tough… I think people know a bad map when they see it and I think there’s certainly conversations going on with members now that have a lot of concerns about it – across the board and not even confined to the Third District."

Burris also contends that if Hall’s plan does pass the House, he thinks the 4-4 partisan split on the Senate State Agencies Committee will make for a tough hurdle to clear. He suggested that lawmakers may see more debate in the Senate because of the structure of the committee.

*****

So let’s turn to the State Senate, where Democrats enjoy a 20-15 advantage over their GOP counterparts. A minimum of 18 votes will be required to pass a redistricting plan, so Democrats can only afford to lose two votes to hold the "Fayetteville to the Fourth" plan intact.

Sen. Sue Madison (D-Fayetteville) chairs the Senate State Agencies Committee. Madison tells Talk Business that she’s not taking a public position in order to ensure a fair hearing on all maps in her Senate committee.

However, Madison said she’s "open-minded" on the proposal and has heard fairly equally from both sides for and against the "Fayetteville to the Fourth" plan.

"I do get the sense that there are more people in Fayetteville who are giving this a second look," said Madison. "I know that the Fourth District is expected to continue losing population and the Fayetteville area is expected to continue growing population, so I think in some ways this could mitigate this disparity that the Fourth has population-wise."

A potential swing vote in the Senate: Sen. Larry Teague (D-Nashville). He’s running for re-election next year in what will be a redrawn Senate district and he may be a viable candidate for the Senate Pro Temp position.

He says he’s "not fond" of the House plan, but is tight-lipped on what he might support.

Today, State Sen. Johnny Key (R-Mountain Home) intends to run his plan in Senate State Agencies this morning.

*****

What’s really at the core of the House plan, Sen. Johnny Key’s (R-Mountain Home) plan, and others are whether or not Congressional Districts will be redrawn in a way that mathematically suggests Republicans will have a 3-to-1 advantage over Democrats or a 2-to-2 draw.

The "Fayetteville to the Fourth" plan gives Democrats an advantage in the First and Fourth Districts. By adding southeast Arkansas counties to and removing Baxter County from the First, Democrats pick up voter performance there.

Likewise the Fourth District picks up the rich Democratic votes in Washington County (and some in Johnson and Franklin) to add to their base. Some question if there are too many liberal Democratic votes in Fayetteville to allow it to control a Democratic primary – a real challenge for center-right Democratic Cong. Mike Ross in the next cycle.

Clearly, the Third District remains solidly Republican with the Baxter County gain and the loss of Democratic votes from Washington County.

Of interest, the changes in the Second District. Under the 2-2 scenario, Democrats have effectively conceded the Second to Republican Cong. Tim Griffin by adding Hot Springs Village to the Congressional District and not shifting the large GOP vote in the city of Searcy into the First.

Key’s plan gives Republicans advantages in 3 Districts – the First, Second and Third, but leaves the Fourth in more favorable Democratic shape.

*****

A final thought: a few weeks ago, Talk Business executive editor Roby Brock predicted this would be a very partisan vote. That’s what happens in Congressional redistricting, particularly in other states.

From a Feb. 26th post:

You could see a near-straight party line vote on redistricting if the Democrats decide to muscle a plan to their advantage through. Despite cries of partisanship, if the tables were turned, you can bet your bottom dollar that the GOP would build a plan in their favor and keep their rank-and-file in order. The Democrats may do the same.

Regardless of the outcome, there are sure to be fireworks and it will likely be the most politically charged debate of the session. Arkansas’ Congressional Districts have changed dramatically during the last 70 years, but not so much in the last 20 years. It appears that the 2011 realignment will be one for the ages.

Legislators Question Need To Move Now On Health Care Laws

Arkansas’ efforts to write state laws and regulations to implement federal health care reform was put on hold today. Members of the House Insurance and Commerce Committee delayed a vote until Friday on HB 2138 by Rep. Fred Allen (D-Little Rock). The bill outlines a number of details of how the state would prepare for federal health care’s enactment, assuming it survives court challenges and potential Congressional changes.