Author: Talk Business

by Talk Business - August 10, 2011 7:00 pm

Watching Iowa From Arkansas

The next couple of days will lead to major events in Iowa impacting the Republican 2012 Presidential race, including tonight’s Fox News debate and the Ames Straw Poll on Saturday. 

We have already seen Mitt Romney have an interesting "Corporations are people, my friend" moment with a heckler at the state fair, which sort of reminded me of Charlton Heston in Soylent Green.  Tomorrow, Sarah Palin will be making a surprise stop on her bus tour.  It is not completely clear exactly why – something about preferring fried butter-on-a-stick to peas.  Mike Huckabee will also be making the round airing his Fox News show live and playing the bass guitar at the booths of candidates that he likes.

Here is my take on how the events can affect the candidates from a right-leaning blogger located 600 miles away.  For insight from Iowa bloggers, I would recommend Iowa Independent and Iowa Republican.

Michelle Bachmann – Expectations for Bachmann are sky-high going down the stretch.  Since the last debate a couple of weeks ago, she has become the Iowa "non-Romney" front-runner.  Anything less than a first-place finish in the straw poll and a solid debate performance could burst her bubble.

Ron Paul – Mark my words, Paul will do well at the straw poll.  His supporters are die-hard and would walk through walls to vote for him.  The problem for Paul is that he shows no signs of being able to attract support from the other 80 to 90 percent of the party.  His supporters will have a big weekend, but it very well could be the high point of their campaign.

Tim Pawlenty – In my opinion, this weekend is "make-or-break" for Pawlenty.  He has completely fallen off the map in the last couple of months and a poor showing in Thursday’s debate and/or the straw poll will all but end his chances.  However, unlike Bachmann, the expectations for Pawlenty are very low.  A third place finish could be a glimmer of hope that keeps him alive for another day, but anything less and he really ought to drop out.

Breakout candidates – There is a chance for a long list of candidates to surprise folks with a strong showing.  Rick Santorum probably stands the best chance of doing this as he appeals to the socially conservative Iowa Republican voter.  Herman Cain could get a small boost from the FairTax group, although they are not providing him anywhere close to the support they provided Huckabee four years ago.  Newt Gingrich could also surprise people, but I doubt it.  I have not figured out why he is still running.

Mitt Romney – Romney is still the national frontrunner, but is making the conscious decision to ignore Iowa.  After tonight’s debate, he is leaving Iowa and heading to New Hampshire.  Iowans do not like to be ignored and he will probably pay the price at the straw poll.

Rick Perry – The elephant not in the room is Perry.  Virtually everyone expects him to announce he is running for President at blogger Erik Erikson’s RedState Gathering in South Carolina on Saturday around 1:00 EST, which is about the same time the speeches begin at the Iowa Straw Poll (see schedule here.)  Perry is polling well, raising a ton of money, and building out a campaign team.  Will he get in the race and become a frontrunner to rival Romney or will he be this cycle’s Fred Thompson?

It’s going to be fun to watch.  Make sure and follow my live-blogging twitter account @HyperTolbert if you want my live blog comments on all the debate performances and the events this weekend.

by Talk Business - August 9, 2011 7:00 pm

Cotton Would Have Opposed Final Debt Deal

Tom Cotton, who is currently the only announced candidate for the Fourth Congressional District open seat for either party, appeared on KARN’s Dave Elswick show yesterday afternoon where he answered questions from listeners for over an hour.

by Talk Business - August 8, 2011 7:00 pm

Senator Boozman Launches Arkpac

Sen. John Boozman announced in an e-mail to supporters this morning that he is launching his own political action committee called Arkansas for Leadership Political Action Committee (ARKPAC.)

by Talk Business - August 7, 2011 7:00 pm

Rep. Woods Comments On Friend John Brown – Killed In Action

Visit msnbc.com for breaking news, world news, and news about the economy

State Rep. Jon Woods (R-Springdale) appeared on MSNBC today discussing his good friend, John Brown, who was one of the Navy SEALs killed in the attacks in Afghanistan this weekend.

"John was the ideal soldier," Woods tells the Tolbert Report. "He was physically fit, extremely smart and had a great sense of humor. We lived down the street from each other in high school. We would walk home from school together on some days after long days of basketball practice & track. We would watch SNL every Saturday night before going out with our friends on Saturday nights."

"It’s been a long weekend and he will be truly missed. If the Seal team 6 looked anything like him, then I can’t imagine what was running through Osama Bin Laden’s mind during the raid on the compound," said Woods.

Sgt. John Brown and fellow Arkansan Navy Master Chief Tommy Ratzlaff were both killed in an attack on their helicopter while attempting to rescue fellow soldiers in Afghanistan.  Gov. Mike Beebe has ordered state flags to be flown at half mast in their honor.

by Talk Business - August 6, 2011 7:00 pm

Lessons From Sunday School: Politicians Very Unpopular

I noticed a bit of anecdotal evidence of the huge discontent towards politicians this morning in Sunday School. 

by Talk Business - August 5, 2011 7:00 pm

Fairtax Re-thinks Backing Miike Huckabee In 2007 Iowa Straw Poll

The Iowa Presidential straw poll in Ames is all about expectations.  In 2007, Mitt Romney was expected to run away with it. He won, but not before Mike Huckabee produced a surprisingly strong second place showing.  This upset put him on the map and was the beginning of his move from a second-tier candidate to a contender who ended up winning the Iowa Caucus the following January.

by Talk Business - August 5, 2011 7:00 pm

Libertarian Party Filing Shows A Lot Of Out-of-state Funding (updated)

In May, the Libertarian Party of Arkansas pulled off the difficult task of qualifying for third party ballot access in Arkansas by submitting petitions with well over the 10,000 signatures required.  How were they able to pull off such a feat?  Their financial report filed in July sheds some light on this.

by Talk Business - August 4, 2011 7:00 pm

Democrats Begin Targeting Congressman Griffin

Home fresh from the heated debate in Washington over the debt ceiling, Congressman Tim Griffin is finding himself in the crosshairs of liberal groups and national Democratic groups as well.

On Thursday, Griffin was the first from the Arkansas delegation – and perhaps one of the first nationwide – to begin hosting their regular August townhalls to the public to ask questions and hear directly from their Congressman.  Griffin’s office sent out several press releases, appeared on local talk radio, posted on Facebook and Twitter, and even had several announcements appear in the news, yet mysteriously the national liberal blog, Daily Kos, ran a story yesterday entitled "Congressman Griffin to Hold Secret Town Hall Meetings" (They’ve since deleted the story, but here is the article courtesy of Google Cached pages.)

You can read about the townhall from several media sources who attended the not-so-secret town halls, but of course, I would recommend Talk Business Roby Brock’s report complete with video.  Griffin has eleven more "Jump Starting Jobs Tour" events this month which are detailed here.

Joining the far left in their attacks is the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee which announced today they are launching a campaign targeting Griffin.  From their press release…

Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) is launching an aggressive “Accountability August” grassroots and paid campaign to hold Representative Tim Griffin (AR-02) accountable for “choosing Millionaires over Medicare.” The DCCC will launch radio ads to hold Griffin accountable for voting to end Medicare and raise seniors’ health care costs in order to protect tax breaks for millionaires and subsidies for Big Oil. As part of the DCCC’s “Drive for 25” campaign to win the House, the DCCC will hold 44 Republicans, including Griffin accountable for their wrong priorities. Week one of Accountability August begins on Monday with these radio ads.

They also have a website called MillionairesOverMedicare.com where they will be encouraging protesters to show up at Griffin’s townhalls.  So that should be fun.

Speaking of radio ads, the Republican Party of Arkansas has a radio ad out right now as well, profiling the back-to-school sales tax holiday this weekend.  Rep. Matthew Shepherd (R-El Dorado) worked hard in the last session (getting a lot of bipartisan support, I might add) to get this passed.