Trucking index up in July; industry cautious with improving trends

Officials with the American Trucking Associations’ and a leading Fort Smith-based trucking company are cautiously optimistic about improving trends in the long-beleaguered national trucking industry.

The ATA reported Aug. 26 that its seasonally adjusted July tonnage index was up 2.1%, compared to a June dip of 2.4%. Compared with July 2008, the seasonally adjusted index fell 10.4%, which was the best year-over-year rate since February 2009. The June year-over-year rate was down 13.6%. The ATA said the recent ups and downs in the trend may indicate the sector — which saw a tonnage decline begin in late 2006 — is seeing a bottom to the decline.
 
“It is not unusual for an economic indicator to become volatile before changing direction,” ATA Chief Economist Bob Costello noted in a statement. “While I am optimistic that the worst is behind us, I just don’t see anything on the economic horizon that suggests freight tonnage is about to rise significantly or consistently. … Still, even small gains are better than the February 2008 through April 2009 cumulative tonnage reduction of 15.5 percent.”

David Humphrey, spokesman for Fort Smith-based Arkansas Best Corp., said tonnage at ABF Freight System — the company’s less-than-truckload subsidiary — was down 13% in July, an improvement over the 17.3% decline in the first half of 2009. Humphrey notes that the improvement is compared against a July 2008 in which per-day tonnage was down 2%.

“Stripping that effect out, we would say it was a little better but not much. However, we are cautious about overreacting to positive news until we see a sustained positive trend,” Humphrey said.
 
Trucking serves as a barometer of the U.S. economy, representing nearly 69% of tonnage carried by all modes of domestic freight transportation, including manufactured and retail goods, according to the ATA.