It’s A Toss-up, But Democrats Can Win

Mike Ross’ retirement makes the Fourth Congressional District a "toss-up" in 2012.  With an open seat in a swing district, both political parties will spend millions to win it and at this point either party could pick it up next November.  
 
Arkansas’ other three Congressional seats have Republican incumbents and Democrats must fight hard to keep this seat in the Democratic column. With Obama on the ticket in 2012, Republicans will attempt to nationalize this race and Democrats must attempt to keep the issues focused locally. Turnout is higher in a Presidential year, which helps Democrats since unfortunately some demographics are harder to turn out in off-year elections.
 
Ross’ early departure gives Democrats time to find a candidate, unlike Democratic retirements in 2010 that occurred only 90 days before the filing deadline.

While Obama is unpopular in Arkansas among general election voters, the issues that Democrats support – protecting Medicare, Social Security and fighting for the middle class – are winning issues for a Democratic candidate. A solid candidate who can articulate these issues clearly and consistently will resonate with Fourth District voters who are not inclined to vote along straight party lines.

Republicans are counting on the straight ticket vote, but Arkansas doesn’t have a history of that and I suspect that 2012 will be no different.

RECOMMENDED READING:
Tolbert Report – Blogger Jason Tolbert assesses the Fourth
Arkansas Election Line – Our first snapshot of the Fourth District race