Walmart expected to post 8% first fiscal quarter net income gain

Bentonville-based Walmart is likely to grow net income at a faster pace than revenue in its first quarter for fiscal 2027, according to analysts. The consensus estimate among analysts who cover the company calls for adjusted earnings per share of 66 cents, up 8.19% from 61 cents a year ago.

Net income is forecast at roughly $7.97 billion for the period ending April 30 and will likely be adjusted following the recent elimination of roughly 1,000 jobs in the company’s global technology division.

Revenue is expected to exceed $174.8 billion, rising more than than 6% year over year. Global e-commerce sales are expected to grow 24% from a year ago, fueled by marketplace — third-party sellers — expansion. The retail giant is not expected to raise its full-year guidance given the macro challenges around energy prices and trade policies.

This will be the first quarter under the leadership of CEO John Furner, who took the helm from Doug McMillon on Feb. 1. Analysts are watching same-store sales, which are forecast to grow 3.5% to 4.5%, driven primarily by grocery demand and higher-income shoppers trading down.

Areas of concern include rising gasoline prices that are trickling into food and grocery categories, which make up about two-thirds of Walmart’s U.S. sales. Analysts with Morgan Stanley said elevated diesel prices could translate to a $1 billion annualized headwind for Walmart, which operates the nation’s largest private trucking company.

Analysts at Barclays said Walmart’s growth in membership revenue and advertising sales, which each grew by double digits in recent quarters, should provide some cushion to any margin squeeze in the traditional retail business. Consensus estimates call for global ad growth of 30% in the first quarter, also helping to offset any weaker discretionary sales that have lagged for several quarters.

Walmart captures grocery dollars from roughly 90% of U.S. households, which will provide a real-time gauge of household budgets across income tiers. While analysts remain mostly bullish on Walmart, they are eager to hear commentary about consumer spending that remains propped up mostly by higher-income families.

Wall Street analysts are also eager to hear how tariff pass-through is faring now that gasoline prices have risen 50% in recent months. Walmart has said it will hold prices down on household essentials as long as it can, but prices on other items have gone up. Inflation heated up in April, with food prices up 3.2% year over year, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Walmart International and Sam’s Club are expected to hold their own in the quarter, with single-digit gains in operating income, slightly outpacing more modest revenue growth. Each of the segments is also under new management this fiscal year.

Bank of America analysts note that more consumers could trade down to Walmart and dollar stores to stretch their budgets amid higher gasoline prices. Also, Walmart is a gasoline dealer, and that also provides some cushion.

Walmart shares (NASDAQ: WMT) have traded higher in recent months, gaining more than 19.6% this year. The stock closed Monday (May 18) at $133.34, up $1.89. Bank of America recently raised its one-year target price to $150, which is well above the targets of $132 by Barclays and $137 by Wolfe Research. Over the past 52 weeks, the share price has traded between $93.43 and $134.69, and there has been some speculation that another stock split may happen if the price rises above $160.