Valentine’s Day spending expected rise 5.8%

Love is in the air. And so is love-related spending. The National Retail Federation (NRF) estimates that 65% of U.S. households plan to celebrate Valentine’s Day this year, spending an average of $199.78 for gifts, dinner and other holiday items.

Total spending is pegged at $29.1 billion, up 5.8% from a year ago, the NRF reports. Most of that increase relates to the higher prices of candy, dinner out and jewelry compared to prior years. Consumers between the ages of 18 and 44 are the most likely to celebrate the holiday, according to Numerator’s annual survey.

“Valentine’s Day is a cherished holiday that resonates with many Americans, as seen with expected record-breaking spending this year,” said Katherine Cullen, NRF vice president of industry and consumer insights. “Much of that growth is driven by middle- and high-income shoppers who are expanding their gift lists to include friends, coworkers, and even pets in addition to loved ones.”

Among those planning to celebrate Valentine’s Day, 83% intend to buy a gift for their significant other. NRF expects romantic partners to spend a total of $14.5 billion. But spending does not stop there, as 58% also plan to shop for kids, parents or siblings, totaling $4.5 billion. Friend giving is projected to ring up $2.4 billion for retailers, with gifts for classmates and teachers adding $2.1 billion, and $1.7 billion earmarked for coworker gifts. Gift spending for pets is estimated to be $2.1 billion, up from $1.7 billion a year ago.

“Valentine’s Day underscores the value of relationships, and for many people, the connection they share with their pets is an important one,” said Phil Rist, executive vice president of strategy at Prosper Insights & Analytics. “Whether it’s a dog, cat or other animal, consumers are looking to celebrate their pets this Valentine’s Day with a special toy, accessory or treat.”

Candy is the most popular Valentine’s Day gift, with 56% of consumers planning to make a candy purchase. Candy prices are higher this year, with chocolate prices for brands like Lindt or Russell Stover boxes 30% more expensive than last year. The trade group did not provide an estimated total spending expected on candy.

Greeting cards and flowers are also favorite Valentine’s Day purchases with 41% of consumers. NRF estimates consumers will dole out $3.1 billion on flowers, which is still cheaper than an evening out for 39% of consumers who will spend an estimated $6.3 billion. Also, 25% said they intend to purchase jewelry for a combined spend of $7 billion.

The National Restaurant Association reports that menu prices on average increased 4.1% year over year to start 2026. Full-service restaurant prices are up 4.9% from a year ago. Extreme cold across the south in recent weeks is expected to increase flower bouquet prices by as much as 15%, according to the Society of American Florists. Gold prices are up 66% year over year, driving up jewelry prices from the 2025 Valentine’s Day season, according to a report from Lending Tree.

Numerator reports 49% of celebrators have already done most of their shopping at least one week in advance of Feb. 14. Also, nearly a third of younger consumers plan to celebrate Galentine’s Day, which is an outing with female friends.

Analysts have said that when Valentine’s Day falls on the weekend like it does this year, more consumers are likely to celebrate.