Independent Voters Expressing Strong Republican Lean

Voters in Arkansas who identify as “Independents” consider themselves closer to the Republican Party versus the Democratic Party by a more than 3-to-1 margin.

In the final installment of our latest round of Talk Business-Hendrix College polling, likely Arkansas voters were asked to self-identify their political party preference.

Democrats still outflank Republicans by a small margin, but self-declared Independents comprise the largest voting bloc of voters. Those Independents were asked with which political party they more closely identified.

Q. Generally speaking, do you usually think of yourself as an Independent, a Republican, a Democrat, or other?

34%      Independent
29%      Republican
31.5%   Democratic
5.5%     Other

Only Independent voters were then asked:

Q. As an Independent voter, do you think of yourself as closer to the Republican or Democratic Party?

61%    Republican
18%    Democratic
21%    Neither

ANALYSIS
Dr. Jay Barth, professor of political science at Hendrix College, helped craft and analyze the poll.  He offered the following observations:

In past surveys, as we’ve asked about partisanship, Arkansas voters have broken fairly neatly into thirds — one-third Republican, Democratic, and Independent, respectively — with a scattering of those identifying with another party.

In this survey, we went a step further to examine whether “Independents” “leaned” towards either of the two major parties. Political science literature suggests that those independents who “lean” towards a major party are marginally less consistent in voting for candidates from that party than full-fledged partisans.

Moreover, in this election cycle, we have seen “Independents” expressing a preference for Republican candidates by about a two-to-one margin.

Indeed, among those who identify themselves as “Independents,” a healthy majority (61%) note that they “lean Republican” while only 18% “lean Democratic.”  About one in five (21%) are “pure” Independents.

This suggests that a decent chunk of Arkansas’s Independent voters are, in reality, fairly Republican in their worldview. Combined with those voters who identify as Republicans, this means that Arkansas’s electorate is nearing half Republican and Independents who lean Republican.

The fact that the majority of Arkansas Independents are now leaning Republican stands in stark contrast with the patterns of the recent past in the state.

According to the Arkansas Poll from the University of Arkansas, as recently as 2007, a plurality of Independents actually leaned Democratic in the state.

This is an area where President Obama’s impact on the state’s politics has been significant as the era has been one in which more and more Arkansans have moved away from the Democratic Party. That said, these voters have continued to show support for certain Democratic candidates, most notably Gov. Mike Beebe.

POLL METHODOLOGY
This survey was conducted by Talk Business Research and Hendrix College on Thursday, October 18, 2012. The poll, which has a margin of error of +/-3.3%, was completed using IVR survey technology among 868 likely Arkansas voters statewide.

All media outlets are welcome to reprint, reproduce, or rebroadcast information from this poll with proper attribution to Talk Business and Hendrix College.

For interviews, contact Talk Business executive editor Roby Brock by email at [email protected] or Dr. Jay Barth by email at [email protected].