SEC Preview, week 10: LSU-Bama, Arkansas-Carolina only real action

story by Chris Rushing, College Sports Matchups (CSM is a content partner with The City Wire)
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Stewart Mandel of Sports Illustrated is one of my favorite writers. His style of writing is one I hope to achieve one day because you know that he was there to cover a game, but you can’t tell exactly by the way that he describes the surroundings. You never see him refer to anything in the first person unless it’s absolutely necessary. He’s one of the best.

Earlier this week, Mandel mocked this weekend’s slate in the Southeastern Conference as the “grind” that SEC teams often boast. Of course, this caused outrage on Twitter from fans across the league who pointed to their respective team’s overall schedule. Of course, I got the joke and it was the first time I truly looked at this week’s schedule.

It was then that I realized that there is no way I’m going to go through all of those gimme games one-by-one. I’ll offer my picks, like always, but you’ll have to look elsewhere on CollegeSportsMatchups.com to get information about teams like Chattanooga, Louisiana-Lafayette and Idaho State. These games are essentially byes and much-needed wins for schools like Georgia and Ole Miss that are fighting for its respective postseason lives later in November.

By the way, I’m running high on a two-week streak of perfect picks (in case you didn’t notice). I know my readership is truly impressed.

However, it’s not all cupcakes on the docket. Two matchups offer plenty of intrigue and consequence for the four ranked teams involved. Arkansas takes its 6-2 record and No. 19 ranking into Williams-Brice Stadium to take on the No. 17-ranked and 6-2 South Carolina Gamecocks. It’ll be an interesting battle between the Razorbacks’ high-flying offense and Ellis Johnson’s stellar defense at USC.

As entertaining as that contest may be, it’s got nothing on the implications of Alabama-LSU.

This game will always be interesting as long as it is Les Miles vs. Nick Saban. Throw in the fact that both schools are clinging to Bowl Championship Series and SEC Championship dreams once again, and you have all the makings of yet another drama-filled, knock-down, drag-out fight that we’ve grown accustomed to for the past decade.

No. 5 Alabama football (7-1, 4-1 SEC) hasn’t been as dominating through the first two-thirds of the season as it was last year. The defense has shown flashes of brilliance but the growing pains have been just as evident to the fans and critics. The Tide still has plenty of talent waiting in the wings, and Greg McElroy has helped the Tide offense to maintain drives and produce points when absolutely needed to roll on to win after win. Of course, there was that one setback at South Carolina football, but we won’t dwell on that.

LSU football, meanwhile, has a mirrored record of 7-1 with a 4-1 mark in league play, but the Bayou Bengals have not exactly wowed voters – moving up to as high as No. 6 in the national rankings almost in spite of themselves – because Miles’ squad refused to lose. Of course, that all came crashing down and LSU fell in the rankings after losing 24-17 to Auburn two weeks ago in a game where AU rolled up 440 rushing yards on the vaunted John Chavis defense.

LSU’s defense is much better suited to stopping the conventional running attack that UA features with star tailbacks Trent Richardson and Mark Ingram. Listening to the purple and gold-clad defenders this week, you can almost sense an enthusiasm to line up with another offense and tackle the opposition straight on.

It seems as though this game features strength vs. strength and weakness vs. weakness since LSU’s offense is, without mincing words, garbage. Alabama’s defense can look like it takes plays off, but I don’t see Jordan Jefferson or Jarrett Lee being able to exploit any weaknesses the Tide may possess by the way either of those two have played thus far.

Saturday evenings in Tiger Stadium aren’t always kind to the visitors, but Alabama seems to always be the exception to that rule. From 1972 until 2004, the homestanding Tigers never could notch a win over the visitors from Tuscaloosa.  In the last meeting on the Bayou, Saban and Co. wrapped up the first of two-straight Western Division titles with a 27-21 overtime win.

I foresee a very similar contest to that 2008 meeting, and I think Alabama wins this one on a late play yet again. Lee will throw a pick on LSU’s last play from scrimmage for good measure.

The pair will hit the battlefield at 2:30 p.m. CT with CBS broadcasting the game to a national audience. Join Gary Danielson, Verne Lundquist and Tracy Wolfson then.

Call it now: Alabama 23, LSU 17

• No. 19 Arkansas at No. 17 South Carolina (Columbia, S.C., 7 p.m. EST, ESPN)
Special thanks to Doug Adams of the Gamecock Radio Network for some of the notes that will be featured in this preview.

South Carolina football is so close, it can taste Atlanta. A win in Gainesville next weekend (barring a Vanderbilt upset of the Gators this weekend), and the Gamecocks will play in the SEC Championship Game. With as much craziness that has plagued the East this season, how ominous is that loss at Kentucky now for USC? The Gamecocks could have the division championship wrapped up before traveling to the Swamp next week.

Then again, with UF-Vandy being played in the morning and the Gators looking far from world-beaters, it’s not out of the question that Steve Spurrier and his team could go ahead and wrap up the division Saturday night anyway.

Arkansas football quarterback Ryan Mallett has just one road win in his two-year career at UA. This isn’t exactly the greatest of omens, but it should be said that it hasn’t always been Mallett’s fault that his team couldn’t pull out a few more W’s away from Razorback Stadium. To keep up goals of a major bowl such as the Cotton or Capital One, this is a victory that Arkansas cannot miss.

South Carolina has won 13 of its last 14 home contests with an average margin of victory of 15 points in those 13 victories. As we all witnessed on Oct. 16, Arkansas’ defense is better than the 2009 version but still is susceptible to giving up points in bunches. During this home winning streak, Carolina is averaging 24.8 points per game against SEC opponents. The most is 38 against Tennessee in 2010 while the second highest total is 35 against Alabama in 2010. The fewest is 14 against Vanderbilt and Florida in 2009.

The trends say to go with South Carolina. It wouldn’t be a bad pick. However, the SEC East has just two wins over the SEC West in 2010. Of course, the Gamecocks possess one of those two triumphs in the version of the 35-21 upset of then-No. 1 Alabama on Oct. 2.

To heck with it, I’m sticking with the Ol’ Ball Coach on this one.

Call it now: South Carolina 31, Arkansas 20

The rest of the games and picks are as follows:
• Florida at Vanderbilt (Nashville, Tenn., 11:21 a.m. CT, SEC-Network)
Call it now: Florida 42, Vanderbilt 17

• Charleston Southern at Kentucky (Lexington, Ky., 12:30 p.m. EST, PPV)
Call it now: Kentucky 49, Charleston Southern 10

• Idaho State at Georgia (Athens, Ga., 12:30 p.m. EST, PPV)
Call it now: Georgia 37, Idaho State 20

• Chattanooga at No. 2 Auburn (Auburn, Ala., 12 p.m. CT, PPV)
Call it now: Auburn 70, Chattanooga 20

• Louisiana-Lafayette at Ole Miss (Oxford, Miss., 6 p.m. CT, ESPNU)
Call it now: Ole Miss 31, ULL 14

• Tennessee at Memphis (Memphis, Tenn., 7 p.m. CT, CBS College Sports)
Call it now: Tennessee 27, Memphis 17

• Rushing’s predictions:
Last week: 5-0
Overall: 58-9