The Supply Side: Online grocery sales surge more than 32% in December

Consumers continue to turn to online shopping for food and other consumables. December online grocery sales totaled $12.7 billion, up 32%, or $3.1 billion over the same month in 2024, according to Brick Meets Click and Mercatus. Online grocery sales in 2025 exceeded $128.6 billion, up 32.9% from 2024.

Sales are not adjusted for inflation. More order frequency, higher spending rates, and a larger user base continue to support the growth.

“December set a record high for monthly eGrocery sales, closing out the year with a bang although gains were unevenly distributed across formats and banners,” said David Bishop, partner at Brick Meets Click. “Structural shifts in shopping behavior drove much of eGrocery’s growth in 2025, and this will create stiffer headwinds in 2026 — especially for regional grocers.”

The online shopping mode now commands 19% of weekly grocery spending, the highest level since May 2020 and a 4.3% increase from December 2024, according to Mercatus.

Online grocery sales totaled $36.6 billion in the last quarter of 2025, up 23.2% from the year-ago period. The sales figures are not adjusted for inflation.

Mercatus reports that the average number of orders completed by monthly active users is up year-over-year for 16 consecutive months. December users completed an average of 2.9 orders during the month with half of the users placing three or more orders. Households in the 30 to 44-year age range had the largest increase in order frequency over the past quarter, at 3.2 orders per month. Households of those 60 years or older are also a growing age demographic for online grocery shopping.

The report also found the average order value of online grocery increased 11% in December from a year ago. Average order values also grew 11% in November following a 3% decline in October. The number of average monthly users grew by 10% in December, 6% in November and 13.5% in October.

In the last quarter of 2025, Amazon rolled out its same-day fresh grocery service, which pushed the ship-to-home method 14% higher while pickup and delivery each rose 9% from the same period in 2024. The Seattle-based e-tailer also announced Jan. 27 it will close all of its Amazon Fresh and Amazon Go brick-and-mortar locations to focus on expanding its Whole Foods Market grocery format with 100 new stores over the next few years.

Retailers with the largest share of the online grocery business in 2025 included Walmart with 31.6% of the total share. Amazon came in second with 22.6% of the total share, and Kroger was third at an 8.6% share.

With Brick Meets Click estimating that Walmart’s share of total 2025 online grocery spending was 31.6%, the retailer’s online grocery sales in 2025 was $40.63 billion. Walmart does not report online grocery sales. Although grocery sales are increasingly shifting online, digital’s share of total grocery sales will be lower than previously anticipated, according to Blake Droesch, an analyst with eMarketer.

“That doesn’t mean digital grocery penetration has hit a ceiling,” Droesch said. “There are still ways that bigger retailers can build out the accessibility of online grocery that foster growth in the long term. But in the immediate future, the market needs to catch up and correct itself from the hyper growth we saw during the pandemic.”

He said Walmart’s dominance is not necessarily due to a large volume of sales but rather a higher price order than its competitors.

“Consumers are doing more comprehensive grocery shopping at Walmart, whereas with Amazon, shoppers tend to do more one-off purchases,” he said.

Challengers to traditional grocery and mass retailers include Instacart, Uber and DoorDash. He said grocery intermediaries remain popular in some markets, but 72.2% of U.S. digital grocery sales come directly from retailers.

The grocery landscape is constantly evolving, and staying ahead of the curve is crucial for any retailer. Brick Meets Click predicts overall grocery spending growth to slow, amid a rise in the number of consumers taking GLP-1 drugs to curb their appetites. A report by RAND indicates about 12% of Americans, or 40 million people, have reduced their grocery spend while taking the medication in the past year. RAND estimates that could rise to 50 million GLP-1 users over the next few years.

RAND found average households using GLP-1 medications reduced their grocery spend by about 6% during the first six months of starting the medication. Higher-income households dialed back their grocery spend by 8.5% during that same time.

Former Walmart CEO Doug McMillon said in early 2025 that the retailer saw some margin compression due to the rise in GLP-1 weight-loss medications. The biggest categories for cutbacks amid GLP-1 households include snacks, cookies, sugary drinks and alcoholic beverages.

Brick Meets Click said that while overall grocery spending growth is expected to slow, the online segment is poised for stronger growth. The report projects that online grocery sales will increase this year through 2029 at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8.9%, which is more than five times faster than the 1.7% rate anticipated for in-store sales. By the end of 2029, online sales, including pickup, delivery and ship-to-home, are expected to account for 17% of all U.S. grocery sales, which would be down from 19% in 2025.

Editor’s note: The Supply Side section of Talk Business & Politics focuses on the companies, organizations, issues and individuals engaged in providing products and services to retailers. The Supply Side is managed by Talk Business & Politics.