Tyson Foods expected to post 14% drop in first-quarter net income

Tyson Foods may post lower earnings when it reports first quarter results on Monday (Feb. 2). The consensus earnings per share is 98 cents, which would be below $1.14 per share in the year-ago period. The beef segment is expected to be a drag on quarterly and full-year income.

Adjusted net income is forecast at $325.7 million for the Springdale-based company, which would be down 19% from $405 million reported a year ago. Revenue is expected to top $14 billion, up 4.8% year over year.

Tyson is expected to report a large one-time loss in its beef segment related to closure of a beef packing plant in Lexington, Neb., and shift reductions in its large packing plant in Amarillo, Texas. Tyson has forecast losses of $500 million for the fiscal year in its beef segment.

For the quarter ending Dec. 31, Tyson is expected to report beef sales of $5.761 billion, up 8% from a year ago. Operating losses of $100.8 million are forecast for the segment, down 215% from the results reported a year ago. The beef segment continues to struggle with limited cattle supplies and high live cattle prices that have pinched margins. For the quarter, Stephens Inc. reports packer margins averaged $53.14 per head, down 43% from a year ago.

“Margins are likely to remain under pressure over the longer term, given where we are in the cattle cycle,” noted Pooran Sharma, an analyst with Stephens Inc. “Production was down 4% in the quarter from the prior year, and slaughter weights were 6.2% less than a year ago.” (Stephens Inc. conducts investor services with Tyson Foods and is compensated accordingly.)

Derrell Peel, livestock analyst with Oklahoma State University Extension, said it will be at least two years before beef packers like Tyson Foods begin to benefit from higher U.S. cattle herds.

Tyson’s chicken business may come in lower than the record results reported a year ago. Chicken revenue is expected to top $4.187 billion, up 3% from a year ago. Operating income is expected to total $335 million for the quarter,  down 9% year over year. The forecast operating margin of 8% in the quarter is slightly below the 9.1% reported a year ago.

Sharma said with broiler production moderating and beef supply remaining constrained, big bird margins should recover above mid-cycle levels by the second quarter, supported by seasonally strong chicken demand. The large bird business primarily supplies the restaurant industry.

Tyson’s pork business is expected to report revenue of $1.665 billion, up 3% year over year. The segment’s operating income is pegged at $64.9 million, up 10.1% from the same period last year. The segment’s operating margin is expected to increase slightly to 3.9% in the quarter.

Sharma said with the pork industry facing contracting hog supplies for much of the previous year, the latest Hogs and Pigs report suggests a swing in supplies in the back half of 2026. During the quarter, the Stephens pork processing margin averaged $26.13 per head, up 7.9% year over year. Pounds produced were up 0.7% in the quarter, with heads slaughtered mostly flat.

Tyson’s large prepared foods business is expected to report sales of $2.547 billion in the quarter, up 3% from a year ago. Operating income is expected to top $229 million, down 2% from a year ago. Operating margin is forecast at 9%, down slightly from a year ago.

Tyson’s international business is expected to report sales revenue of $566 million in the quarter, down 3% year over year. Operating income is forecast at $26 million, which would be down 12.4% from a year ago.

Tyson Foods’ Board Chairman John H. Tyson and Chief Financial Officer Curt Calaway recently sold substantial shares on the open market, and analysts maintain a consensus “hold” rating on the stock with a target price of $60.60 per share. Tyson also increased its quarterly dividend to 51 cents in the past quarter for an annual payout of $2.04 per share.

Company shares (NYSE: TSN) closed Wednesday at $64.60, down 1.75%. During the past 52 weeks the share price has traded between $50.56 and $64.36. Shares underperformed the S&P 500 in 2025, but the stock’s value increased 14.38% over the past 12 months.