Report estimates possible Fort Smith metro losses in Medicaid, SNAP funds

Crawford and Sebastian counties could lose almost $600 million in Medicaid funding over a decade if proposed federal legislation is approved, according to “rough” estimates from the Arkansas Advocates for Children and Families.

The advocacy group, which has for weeks been vocal in its opposition to the so-called One Big Beautiful Bill pushed by President Donald Trump and Republicans in Congress, issued Monday (June 23) a report on potential funding losses for Medicaid and the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP), or food stamps, if the U.S. House version of the bill is adopted.

The U.S. Senate is now considering the bill approved by the U.S. House. The House bill would cut around $800 billion in Medicaid funding over a decade, and would reduce SNAP funding by around $300 billion. All four members of Arkansas’ delegation in the U.S. House voted for the bill.

“As many as 177,000 Arkansans could lose health coverage if the bill passes,” AACF Executive Director Keesa Smith-Brantley said in a statement. “And almost 60,000 residents — many of them children — are at risk of losing food assistance. Arkansans cannot afford for this bill to pass.”

The AACF report estimates Sebastian County would lose $384.3 million in Medicaid funding over a decade, with 7,277 county residents possibly losing health care coverage. Crawford County could lose $212.3 million in 10 years with 4,019 county residents losing access to health care coverage. Four counties – Crawford, Franklin, Logan, and Sebastian – in the Fort Smith market area could lose a combined $726 million in Medicaid funding over a decade.

SNAP benefits in Sebastian County would decline over the decade by an estimated $118.8 million, and Crawford County would see a decline of $45.8 million.

Combining proposed Medicaid and SNAP funding changes, Sebastian County could lose $503.1 million in benefits over a decade, and Crawford County could lose $258.1 million, according to the AACF.

Pete Gess, AACF economic policy advisor, said the group’s report is based on estimates from the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office. He said numbers in the report use CBO data to create a “rough estimate” for each county, and he noted that “several factors may affect how much individuals are affected by the cuts.”

“Several members of Congress have questioned the accuracy of the CBO estimates, and we can appreciate that these sorts of projections are both science and art,” Gess noted. “Still, the CBO maintains that these estimates are conservative.”

U.S. Rep. Steve Womack, R-Rogers, has said the legislation makes appropriate changes to program requirements, seeks to eliminate fraud and waste, but will protect access to Medicaid and SNAP for the “truly vulnerable.”

“The legislation I supported will strengthen and protect Medicaid for those who need it most – mothers, children, people with disabilities, and the elderly,” Womack said in a statement. “The enrollees who will lose coverage under this bill are illegal aliens, those who are not eligible for Medicaid but receive benefits improperly, and able-bodied adults who choose not to work. If we want Medicaid to serve the truly vulnerable in the long run, we must root out waste, fraud, and abuse; and that’s exactly what this bill accomplishes.”

U.S. Sen. John Boozman, R-Ark., said the bill the Senate is considering will strengthen Medicaid and provide adequate funding for healthcare providers.

“This bill strengthens Medicaid in a commonsense way, eliminating waste, fraud and abuse – including ensuring it does not go to illegal immigrants and able-bodied adults without dependents – so it benefits those who truly need it,” Boozman said. “I will continue championing policies to enhance medical care in Arkansas that protect patient access, adequately reimburse providers and invest in life-saving treatment and research.”

Bo Ryall, president and CEO of the Arkansas Hospital Association, has said the proposed legislation could harm the financial stability of Arkansas hospitals.

“Chances are that you, your family, or your neighbors have a loved one who is eligible for and currently receiving Medicaid and is at risk of losing that coverage. An increase in the uninsured rate in our state will directly impact hospital finances,” Ryall said in a recent guest commentary with Talk Business & Politics.