Year-over-year March jobless rate increases in most Arkansas metro areas

Job numbers were down in four of Arkansas’ eight metro areas in March, with the Northwest Arkansas metro having the highest percentage year-over-year growth at 2.1%. All but one area posted a higher number of unemployed in March compared with the prior year.

March jobless rates ranged from 2.5% in Northwest Arkansas to 4.3% in the Pine Bluff metro, according to data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). The March report is preliminary and subject to revisions.

Arkansas’ four largest metro regions – areas with most of the workforce in the state – had a combined 14,636 year-over-year job gains in March, well above the Arkansas’ 5,316 job gains. The metro tally above the state number shows job growth primarily in the state’s larger urban areas.

Central Arkansas – Little Rock, North Little Rock and Conway – had 360,724 employed in March, up 6,615 jobs, or 1.9%, from the 354,109 in March 2023. The metro posted record employment of 362,244 in July 2023. The metro had 11,353 unemployed, up from 9,946 in March 2023.

Northwest Arkansas, the state’s second largest metro area, had an estimated 309,117 jobs in March, up 6,397 jobs, or 2.1%, from the 32,720 in March 2023. The March number is a record for metro employment. The metro had 7,838 unemployed, up from 6,823 in March 2023.

The Fort Smith metro, Arkansas’ third largest metro, had an estimated 116,642 jobs in March, up 1,600 jobs, or 1.4%, from 115,042 in March 2023. Regional employment remains well below the peak of 124,098 in June 2006. The metro had 4,258 unemployed, up from 3,593 in March 2023.

The Jonesboro metro had an estimated 65,496 jobs in March, essentially flat compared with the 65,472 in March 2023. The metro posted record employment of 66,447 in July 2023. The metro had 1,955 unemployed, up from 1,679 in March 2023.

REVISION NOTES
Dr. Michael Pakko, chief economist and state economic forecaster at the University of Arkansas at Little Rock’s Institute for Economic Advancement, said recent data revisions by the BLS show better conditions for the central Arkansas and Fort Smith regions.

“(T)here were notable revisions going back several years for Hot Springs, Jonesboro, Pine Bluff and Texarkana–all reflecting lower employment estimates. More recent revisions show slower growth in Fayetteville, Jonesboro, Memphis and Texarkana. Recent employment growth was revised higher for Fort Smith and Little Rock,” Pakko noted on his Arkansas Economist website.

He also said nonfarm payroll employment continues to be robust in the central Arkansas, Northwest Arkansas, and Fort Smith metro areas against previous year numbers.

“On a year-over-year basis, Little Rock is continuing to match the growth rate of the Fayetteville metro area, with Fort Smith also showing strong growth. Growth rates in Hot Springs and Jonesboro have recently slowed, while Memphis, Pine Bluff and Texarkana have seen employment declines over the past year,” Pakko wrote.

NATIONAL NUMBERS
Unemployment rates were higher in March than a year earlier in 269 of the 389 metropolitan areas, lower in 89 areas, and unchanged in 31 areas, according to the BLS. A total of 77 areas had jobless rates of less than 3% and 12 areas had rates of at least 8%.

Nonfarm payroll employment increased over the year in 51 metro areas, decreased in 5 areas, and was essentially unchanged in 333 areas.

In March, Burlington-South Burlington, Vt., had the lowest unemployment rate at 1.6%. The next lowest rates were in Rapid City, S.D., and Sioux Falls, S.D., at 1.9% each. El Centro, Calif., had the highest rate at 16.1%. A total of 208 areas had March jobless rates below the U.S. rate of 3.9%, 169 areas had rates above it, and 12 areas had rates equal to that of the nation.

METRO JOBS DATA
Following are labor market data for the eight metro areas.
• Northwest Arkansas
Labor force
March 2024: 316,955
March 2023: 309,543

Employment
March 2024: 309,117
March 2023: 302,720

Unemployed
March 2024: 7,838
March 2023: 6,823

Jobless rate
March 2024: 2.5%
March 2023: 2.2%

• Fort Smith metro (Arkansas-Oklahoma)
Labor force
March 2024: 120,900
March 2023: 118,635

Employment
March 2024: 116,642
March 2023: 115,042

Unemployed
March 2024: 4,258
March 2023: 3,593

Jobless rate
March 2024: 3.5%
March 2023: 3%

• Hot Springs
Labor force
March 2024: 41,342
March 2023: 41,367

Employment
March 2024: 39,827
March 2023: 39,966

Unemployed
March 2024: 1,515
March 2023: 1,401

Jobless rate
March 2024: 3.7%
March 2023: 3.4%

• Jonesboro
Labor force
March 2024: 67,451
March 2023: 67,151