It’s more than the economy, stupid

Every four years, I’m reminded of former Arkansas Gov. Bill Clinton’s unheralded election as President of the United States. He entered the 1992 race a year earlier when incumbent President George H.W. Bush had a 90% approval rating, in large part due to his popularity after defeating Iraq’s strongman Saddam Hussein, who had foolishly invaded Kuwait. Bush skillfully marshaled an international coalition to fight the Iraqi invasion, and the planet witnessed U.S. military strength of incredible proportions.

Building his message on the moniker “It’s the economy, stupid,” Clinton parlayed economic concerns into a winning strategy over the once super-popular Bush – and it wasn’t that close as Election Day drew near. Clinton was aided by a largely self-funded independent candidate in that race – Ross Perot, who was singularly focused on the national debt – but it’s still a political marvel that Arkansas’ long-serving governor propelled himself to those heights in 1992, especially when Bush was riding so high in the polls in 1991.

The point I wish to drive home is that a lot can happen in a year to completely shift the political landscape. For those who think at this juncture the 2024 presidential election will be a rematch of President Joe Biden versus former President Donald Trump, I say hold on.

Today, that’s our apparent matchup, but we have a big roller coaster ride in store.

The economy, which at present is fairly healthy, may prove to once again be a pivotal message. While inflation and interest rates are still problematic, they are both likely to improve over this next year as Federal Reserve Bank moves affect both. Economic growth will likely cool after a hotter-than-expected economy in 2023. Neither Biden nor Trump will have much control over that.

GDP was healthy last year, the stock market is climbing to new highs, unemployment remains historically low, gas prices have hit the $2.50 mark in Arkansas, yet there is still much to be concerned about. And a lot of that depends on your political persuasion. Recent polling shows that Republicans think the economy is on the rocks, while Democrats see an improving if not solid foundation.

Illegal immigration is one of the most divisive issues driving a wedge between political camps, and you can expect to hear much more about it this year. From the right, the sky is falling and we’re being overrun at our southern border. From the left, the many people (and drugs) being stopped at the Texas-Mexico border is proof that the system is actually working. Expect to hear much more about this, especially the migrant caravan moving toward our border about two weeks before Election Day. (Observation: those caravans mysteriously disappear after Election Day.) Can Congress and the president find a viable solution to fix some of our immigration policy or will grandstanding dominate any debate?

There will be great gnashing of teeth over the health of our democracy. Democrats feel Trump is a threat to it – and he’s given them plenty of ammunition with his dictatorship comments and his role in January 6, 2021 among other things. While our democratic norms were greatly tested in his first term, our democracy survived. Republicans feel that Biden’s policies – particularly regulations and executive orders – are a threat to democracy. Viewed as government overreach, sometimes they make sense, sometimes they don’t.

Much like the Clinton versus Bush matchup in 1992, a lot can happen over the course of this year. I’ve cited the possibilities with the economy and immigration, but Trump’s legal issues loom large, too. Arkansas’ former Gov. Asa Hutchinson ran a quixotic campaign to make those legal hurdles a huge campaign message. It earned him 0.2% in Iowa.

Though there may be some apathy or denial among Republicans about Trump’s legal woes, it’s a badge of honor to some in the GOP. Trump has convinced a portion of his supporters that his legal troubles are a form of persecution – he’s done nothing wrong. The legal morass is a motivating factor for Democrats, who see Trump as a threat to the normalcy of government. They are enthused to make sure their votes count against him (or for Biden) in November. All spin aside, I’ll trust the judicial branch of government to do its job and let the legalities play out through our courts, but just note that they offer some real twists and turns on the road to the November 5th election.

Another significant factor that could impact November’s results involves the health of Biden and Trump. Republicans have demonized Biden’s age (81) and health as issues of concern, but Trump (77) isn’t much younger, and in recent months he has made a number of public gaffes – referring to Nikki Haley as Nancy Pelosi, for instance – that will increase scrutiny of Trump’s mental faculties. Biden has his fair number of weekly stumbles – i.e. referring to “Good Morning, Vietnam” as a song not a movie – and there will be more to come. FYI, younger candidates also make verbal mistakes and miscues often, but it’s not usually pinned on their age.

I’d also note that at both of their ages, Trump’s and Biden’s physical health will always be of concern. With the stress of a presidential campaign, there will be extra pressure on both men’s well-being. You hope nothing happens, but we’d be foolish to think nothing could.

Legal issues, health issues, something unforeseen – who knows who we’ll be voting for president this November or what issues may drive those choices?

I’ll conclude that depending on your political leanings, you’ll find a message that fits your worldview of where the country stands and where it’s heading and who is best equipped to lead it.

I’m challenging you to dig a little deeper with your civic duty and vote from a position of personal education. Don’t listen to what the candidates and their surrogates tell you you’re hearing and seeing. Try to read or watch a news source politically the opposite from your regular sources. Open up your mind, believe your own eyes and ears, and draw your own conclusions. Our republic is counting on you to be an independent thinker.

Editor’s note: Roby Brock is the Editor-in-Chief of Talk Business & Politics. The opinions expressed are those of the author.