Global liquid fuels production is expected to rise by 1 million barrels per day in 2024, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). OPEC+ production cuts are projected to remain in place throughout 2024 and offset non-OPEC production growth.
The EIA released Tuesday (Nov. 7) the November Short-Term Energy Outlook that shows global oil inventories are expected to fall slightly in early 2024. International benchmark Brent crude oil prices are projected to rise by more than $9 per barrel to an average of about $93 per barrel in 2024 from 2023. Supply disruption risk and price volatility are greater amid potential conflict spreading in the Middle East.
The EIA also expects U.S. motorists to consume less gasoline per capita in 2024, resulting in the lowest gasoline consumption in two decades.
“U.S. motorists are driving less because they aren’t commuting to work every day, newer gasoline-fueled vehicles are more efficient and there are more electric vehicles on the road,” said EIA Administrator Joe DeCarolis. “Put those trends together with high gasoline prices and high inflation, and we find that U.S. motorists are using less gasoline.”
According to AAA, a gallon of regular gasoline fell to $3.40 as of Nov. 7 from an average of $3.72 in October. Gasoline prices are down 40 cents from the same time last year. In Arkansas, the prices have fallen for eight consecutive weeks to $3 and are down 24 cents from this time last year. AAA attributed the decline to stable gasoline supplies and the recent switchover to cheaper winter-blend gasoline.
The prices in some metro areas, including Northwest Arkansas, have fallen below $3 per gallon. The statewide average hasn’t dipped below that mark since January, according to AAA.
Following are other highlights from the November Short-Term Energy Outlook:
- U.S. coal exports are returning to pre-pandemic levels amid record demand from Europe and Asia. U.S. coal production is expected to fall in 2024 as the domestic power sector generates more electricity from renewable resources, such as solar and wind, instead of coal.
- In 2024, annual solar generation is expected to surpass annual hydropower generation for the first time in the United States. In 2019, annual wind generation surpassed annual hydropower generation. As of August, installed U.S. solar capacity rose to more than 125 gigawatts, including 80 gigawatts of utility-scale solar capacity and about 45 gigawatts of small-scale solar capacity. Hydroelectric capacity has been flat at about 80 gigawatts for the past few decades.
- U.S. electricity consumption is expected to increase in 2024, and the largest increase will be in the residential sector. Next year, winter conditions are projected to be colder, and summer temperatures will be warmer than in 2023, which will contribute to higher consumption. Electricity consumption will also rise in the commercial and industrial sectors.