The United States is expected to continue to develop shale and tight oil and natural gas resources as well as expand its use of renewable resources, according to new projections from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). The federal agency of the U.S. Department of Energy released its Annual Energy Outlook 2019, and the projections are part of the outlook’s reference case, which includes the effects of existing laws and regulations on the U.S. energy industry.
In 2020, for the first time in almost 70 years, the United States is projected to export more energy than it imports and should remain a net energy exporter through 2050. The growth in exports is expected to be driven by petroleum exports, including crude oil and products, and rising exports of liquefied natural gas. The reference case shows these trends continuing for the next few years before slowing and stabilizing.
“The United States has become the largest producer of crude oil in the world, and growth in domestic oil, natural gas and renewable energy production is quickly establishing the United States as a strong global energy producer for the foreseeable future,” EIA Administrator Linda Capuano said. “For example, the United States produced almost 11 million barrels per day of crude oil in 2018, exceeding our previous 1970 record of 9.6 million barrels.”
Natural gas is expected to continue to produce more electricity than any other energy source, rising from 34% in 2018 to 39% in 2050, according to the reference case in the outlook. Over the same period, the amount that renewable energy, including hydroelectricity, will generate is expected to rise to 31%, from 18%. The rise will be driven by growth in solar and wind generation.
“The (Annual Energy Outlook) highlights the increasing role of renewable energy in the U.S. generation mix,” Capuano said. “Solar and wind generation are driving much of the growth. In fact, our reference case projects that renewables will grow to become a larger share of U.S. electric generation than nuclear and coal in less than a decade.”
U.S. crude oil production will continue to set records through the mid-2020s and remain greater than 14 million barrels per day through 2040. Natural gas plant liquid production will rise to 6 million barrels per day by 2030, and dry natural gas production will reach 43 trillion cubic feet by 2050.
Exports of liquefied natural gas and pipeline exports to Canada and to Mexico will rise until 2030 and remain flat through 2050. Consumption of energy across all major end-use sectors will rise, with electricity and natural gas consumption rising fastest.
Link here for the Annual Energy Outlook 2019.