Poll: Second District Democrats roundly reject Trump

While Republicans in Arkansas overwhelmingly support President Donald Trump’s job performance, Democratic voters in the state’s most progressive Congressional District view Trump negatively.

A new survey of 624 likely Democratic primary voters in the Second Congressional District conducted by Talk Business & Politics and Hendrix College shows more than 8 out of 10 Democrats disapproving of Trump’s job performance as President.

Q: Do you approve or disapprove of the job President Donald Trump is doing?

10.5% Approve
83% Disapprove
6.5% Don’t Know

Two weeks ago, a statewide survey of Republican voters showed Trump with an 86% approval rating.

“If you were looking for a tale of two states, here’s your proof,” said Roby Brock, Talk Business & Politics Editor-in-Chief. “While our latest survey just includes Second District Democratic primary voters, it does show how far the pendulum swings on Trump as a polarizing political figure.”

On Wednesday and Thursday, Talk Business & Politics will release more poll results that highlight Democratic voter attitudes on gun regulation and Arkansas Works. Earlier this week, survey results released included a look at the Second Congressional District Democratic primary and the Democratic gubernatorial matchup.

ANALYSIS
Dr. Jay Barth, professor of political science at Hendrix College, helped craft and analyze the poll. He offered this analysis:

In our results from the Second Congressional District Democratic voter survey, we see perspectives on President Donald Trump’s job performance almost exactly opposite of those we saw in a recent statewide Republican voters. As is the case nationally, Trump is an emphatically polarizing figure with over four in five Democratic voters solidly opposed to all things Trump. Although the sample sizes start to shrink as we look at subgroups of voters, there is evidence of comparative Trump strength with Democrats who are younger, from outside of Pulaski County, and lower-educated. While most Democrats drawn to Trump have moved away from their partisan base to define themselves as Independents, we do see some small signs of the “Trump Democrats” in this Second District survey. A statewide survey that includes more rural areas of the state might well uncover more of this rare, but important, segment of the electorate.

Robert Coon is a partner with Impact Management Group, a government relations and communications firm that works with GOP and independent candidates. Coon is also a Talk Business & Politics contributor. He offered this analysis:

As expected, President Donald Trump is extremely unpopular with Democratic voters in the Second Congressional District, especially those in more urban and suburban counties. Results on Trump approval, as well as on a handful of other issues tested, demonstrate a measurable rural/urban gap amongst Democratic voters in the Second District. Democratic voters in Conway, Perry, and Van Buren counties view Trump more favorably (33.3%, 57.1%, and 32.1% respectively) and generally have a more conservative perspective across several of the other issues tested. Notably younger Democratic voters (18-29) viewed Trump much more favorably than the other age groups with favorability at 27.9%, showing a generational difference among younger voters.

METHODOLOGY
This survey of 624 likely Democratic primary voters was conducted on Tuesday-Thursday, May 1-3, 2018. The poll, which has a margin of error of +/-3.9%, was completed using live callers via cell phone and IVR survey technology. Respondents were chosen from a random sample of Arkansas Democratic primary voters who voted in at least one of the last three primary elections and whom indicated their likelihood to vote this year. Age was weighted.

Age (weighted according to 2016 state Democratic primary vote)
10%   Under the age of 30
19% Between the ages of 30 and 44
37% Between the ages of 45 and 64
34% 65 or older

Ethnicity
1% Asian-American
23% African-American
1% Latino
69% Caucasian or White
6% Other

Gender
38% Male
62% Female

Education
2.5% Did not complete high school
13% High School Graduate
25% Some College
32% Graduated College
27.5% Post-Grad Degree

Pulaski County vs. Non-Pulaski County
66% Pulaski County
34% Non-Pulaski County

Live Caller vs. IVR
24% Live Caller/cell phones
76% IVR

All media outlets are welcome to reprint, reproduce, or rebroadcast information from this poll with proper attribution to Talk Business & Politics and Hendrix College. For interviews, contact Talk Business & Politics Roby Brock by email at [email protected].