Electoral college path favors Hillary over Donald

Editor’s note: Dr. Williams Yamkam is an assistant professor of Political Science at the University of Arkansas at Fort Smith. Opinions, commentary and other essays posted in this space are wholly the view of the author(s). They may not represent the opinion of the owners of Talk Business & Politics or the UAFS administration.
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It is imperative for political candidates to anchor their campaigns to an overarching theme. The campaign theme encapsulates a narrative that not only defines the campaign purpose, but also highlights the strengths of the candidate and (subtly) contrasts them with the vulnerabilities of the opponent(s). To be more effective, a campaign theme is often wrapped into a short, simple, and catchy slogan.

Sensing a growing frustration among the electorate, and wanting to capitalize on the relatively low level of confidence the electorate has in many major institutions, Donald Trump, the presumptive Republican nominee, adopted “Make America Great Again” as his campaign slogan. The subliminal message behind this slogan seems to be threefold: “Our country used to be great. Incompetent professional politicians like Hillary Clinton and their cronies have ruined our country. Vote for me, a non-politician and successful businessman, and I would make our country great again.”

Although some could take issue with the veracity of Trump’s apparent message and the divisive tone Trump has used to express his views, few could question the potency of his message in stoking the emotions of many voters so as to get these latter to the polls.

As the general election is about to officially start, Trump’s campaign message still retains its potency. Given the presumptive Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton’s lengthy and oft-tumultuous political career, and given her ill-advised decision to set up a private e-mail server during her time as Secretary of state, Trump saw it fit to label Clinton as “Crooked Hillary.”

As for Clinton, up until recently, she did not seem to have an overarching campaign theme. Discarding the various campaign slogans “Ready for Hillary,” “Breaking Barriers,” and “I am with Her” that Clinton used during the Democratic primaries, she has now adopted a brand new campaign slogan, “Stronger Together.”

Beneath this campaign slogan is Clinton’s desire to contrast her vision, professed track record of inclusiveness, and personality with that of her Republican opponent Trump. Aiming to capitalize on Trump’s tendency to make divisive and controversial comments, Clinton seems to convey the following subliminal message: “Donald Trump would do and say anything regardless of how damaging his words and actions could be to our national unity. Our country is weak when we are divided. Vote for me, and I would bring us together. For, we are stronger, together.”

Beyond Clinton’s message, her campaign is likely adopting a political strategy that targets key demographics among the electorate. Whether it be among African Americans, Hispanics, women, and other minority groups, Clinton has a substantial lead over Trump. The ‘Stronger Together’ campaign slogan could thus be aimed at these various demographic groups whose coalition could likely guarantee Clinton’s win on Election Day this coming November.

POLL POSITION: CLINTON EDGES TRUMP
According to www.realclearpolitics.com which averages polling data from many credible public polls, Clinton currently leads Trump by an average of 2.7 percentage points.

Besides, although a little more than 13% of voters claim to still be undecided, Clinton leads Trump in every one of the major traditional battleground states such as Ohio Pennsylvania, Florida, Virginia, North Carolina, and New Hampshire. Moreover, at this point in the presidential race, Clinton is likely to carry a combination of blue states that amount to 209 Electoral votes, whereas Trump is likely to carry a combination of red states that amount to 164 Electoral votes. Clinton is thus closer to the 270 Electoral votes needed to win the presidency.

If one took the results of the 2012 presidential election as a baseline, Clinton starts off in a much stronger position than Trump. For, of the 26 states and the District of Columbia that President Barack Obama won in the 2012 presidential elections, Clinton can afford to lose a few states and still reach the necessary 270 Electoral votes. And of the 332 Electoral votes that Obama won in 2012, Clinton can afford to lose 62 Electoral votes and still win the presidency.

As for Trump, without winning new states he cannot afford to lose any of the 24 states nor any of the 206 Electoral votes that Mitt Romney won in 2012. So, from purely structural and mathematical standpoints, the fundamentals of the 2016 presidential race favor Clinton to become the next U.S. President.

That being said, can Trump win the presidential election? Yes, he can. For Trump to become the 45th President of the United States, at least three key things ought to happen.

First, Trump would have to run a professional, disciplined, and respectful campaign that not only contrasts his strengths against Clinton’s weaknesses, but also delivers his campaign message in a way that appeals to more voters as opposed to alienating a significant chunk of the electorate. Politics is a game of addition (of supporters), not of subtraction.

Second, Trump ought to bone up on the issues so as to burnish his credentials as a serious public official who offers thoughtful and practical policy proposals. The upcoming presidential debates would show whether or not Trump has spent the last few months studying policy briefs.

Third, Trump has to hope that despite Clinton’s structural advantages, her campaign stalls or collapses. This might happen by virtue of more voters viewing Clinton as dishonest and untrustworthy, or by virtue of an unexpected political bombshell stemming either from Clinton’s own doings or via a possible government investigation of the Clinton Foundation’s dealings during her time as Secretary of State.

On paper Clinton has a broader path to the necessary 270 Electoral votes, whereas Trump’s path to 270 Electoral votes is narrow. Trump would have to play his political cards right and hope for the stars to be aligned in his favor. If not, instead of getting a chance to “Make America Great Again,” he would make the Republicans lose the White House again.