A Last Look At The Statewide Run-off

More than 73,000 Arkansas voters took part in the historic run-offs on Tuesday — the first time in the last quarter century that Republicans have had a statewide run-off race.

Unofficially, 73,998 voters cast ballots in the GOP Attorney General run-off, which Leslie Rutledge won over David Sterling 59-41%.

Rutledge now faces Democrat Nate Steel and Libertarian Aaron Cash in the general election.

In 2012, there were no statewide run-off races, but there were a plethora in 2010. Buoyed by a U.S. Senate Democratic run-off as well as two other constitutional offices and three Congressional run-offs, more than 259,000 voters returned to the polls three weeks after the primaries four years ago.

The last Republican statewide run-off occurred in the 1990 Lt. Governor’s race when Kenneth “Muskie” Harris defeated Ralph Forbes with 86% of the vote from among 30,000 voters.

Conventional wisdom suggests two things about run-offs: usually the leading candidate from the primary wins and a good “ground game” typically outperforms “air attacks.”

Rutledge, who had an eight-point advantage in the May 20 primary, appeared to have a stronger “ground game” as her campaign organization utilized phone banks, targeted key voters, and performed well in counties with other local run-off races. The results bear that out.

“Rutledge’s longstanding relationships in GOP circles benefitted her tremendously, especially in the well-populated, GOP vote-rich places,” said Republican strategist Clint Reed with Impact Management Group. “She capitalized on that. She had a simple plan, stuck to it, and successfully fought off the negative attacks. It was impressive.”

Of the 15 counties with the highest Republican run-off turnout, Rutledge won 13 of those counties. She lost Boone and Baxter counties, which featured a run-off in a pivotal State Senate race.

Eight of the 13 large turnout counties that Rutledge won equaled or bettered her overall 59-41% margin of victory, and she was at 58% in two more.

“As we saw throughout the primary season in Arkansas on the GOP side, candidates who were more closely connected to the party establishment did very well,” said Dr. Jay Barth, professor of political science at Hendrix College. “There were clearly exceptions — Duncan Baird’s loss to Dennis Milligan in the State Treasurer race and John Burris’s loss in the District 17 State Senate contest — but all things being equal, in this cycle insurgent candidates did not perform particularly well in a state where the Tea Party has only had pockets of support over the past several years.”

The question in the June 10 run-off had been if Sterling would benefit from the Judicial Crisis Network advertising and direct mail that blistered Rutledge and boosted his candidacy. Commonly referred to as “air cover” or “air attacks,” TV, radio and direct mail advertising can obviously help a candidate’s standing.

Typically, the benefit is most accomplished in a general election or a primary — as we saw with Republican Congressional candidate French Hill, who won his three-person race in May without a run-off thanks to heavy advertising.

Sterling didn’t seem to gain traction from the hundreds of thousands of dollars pumped in by JCN. Anecdotally, there was talk of backlash from voters who felt the ads tying Rutledge to President Obama and former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi were off-base or out-of-bounds.

Barth says that in this cycle, outside money from unknown groups may have helped the candidates they were trying to hurt.

“Both in this race and the state Supreme Court race, we did see candidates under attack by ‘dark money’ outside groups over-perform as they turned that against their opponents,” he said.

All eyes now focus on the general election.

Reed with Impact Management Group says momentum favors the GOP heading into the fall.

“The historic number of statewide GOP votes for the run-off has to be the major takeaway. The interest in Republican party politics is at an all-time high, and the enthusiasm for the general election definitely favors Republicans.”

Patrick Burgwinkle, spokesman for the Democratic Party of Arkansas, disagrees.

“This November, Arkansans will have a clear choice on their ballots,” Burgwinkle said. “Congressman Cotton has voted to raise Medicare’s eligibility age to 70. Congressman Hutchinson has called Mike Ross’ plan to expand Pre-K ‘irresponsible.’ They both oppose raising Arkansas’s minimum wage. The suggestion that Arkansans will enthusiastically vote for their reckless agendas is wishful thinking.”

The Arkansas GOP is enthused, however, saying it has fielded the “strongest ticket the Republican Party in Arkansas has ever seen.”

In a memo sent on Wednesday from executive director Megan Tollett, she hyped the full slate of Republican contenders from Cotton to Hutchinson to the other constitutional officers, Congressional candidates and the full GOP state legislative slate.

She also cited Rutledge’s run-off win and November candidacy as notable.

“Also of particular significance is that electing Leslie Rutledge to the office of Arkansas Attorney General will not only make her the first elected female in Arkansas for this nontraditional female role, but also the first Republican Attorney General in this state,” Tollett said.