McDaniel Out & Halter In

Attorney General Dustin McDaniel announced today his departure from the Governor’s race, cutting short a once promising political career.

McDaniel made the right decision to get out of the race.

Polling recently released showed he’d be eviscerated in a general election, with numbers so low that he’d likely take down other Democrats running, like Blanche Lincoln did in 2010.

Instead of dragging it out for months, McDaniel made the tough call to exit the race and while I’m disappointed in his actions that lead to this situation, I do admire and respect his unselfish decision to leave the race. McDaniel won’t be on the 2014 ballot, I predict he’ll spend a brief time in the political wilderness and emerge a stronger candidate for a future office.

The other big news of the day was former Lt. Governor Bill Halter announcing his intentions to run for Governor seemingly minutes after the McDaniel dropping out story broke.

In my opinion, Halter made a mistake in announcing on the same day of McDaniel’s departure. It makes him appear opportunistic, unsympathetic and broke a campaign messaging rule about never letting a major announcement get buried in another news story, which is what likely happens. It’s sort of like announcing at a funeral you’re applying for the job the guy in the casket used to hold.

However, that’s a short-term tactical misstep that in the end has little bearing on who succeeds Mike Beebe in 2014.

Little Rock businessman John Burkhalter said today he’s considering making the run, but did not formally announce his intentions.

It’s now a wide-open race for the Democratic nomination.

At this moment, Bill Halter is the frontrunner for the Democratic nomination. He’s the only potential candidate who’s run for statewide office and has a proven fundraising ability. Halter is unpopular with Democratic insiders, but when running for statewide office, does it really matter how a small group of people feel?

Former Congressman Mike Ross may reconsider his decision and enter the race, but that still remains a very long shot. I’m told he’s making a fine living and enjoying a life away from public service.

However, Ross is one of only two candidates who can really shake things up.

The other is Burkhalter and that only remains true if he puts a significant amount of his money into the race. Burkhalter’s weakness is that he’s never run for office before and wise politicos I respect have given him sound advice over the years that he has promptly ignored. But again, if he puts significant funds into the race, he instantly becomes a player.

Other credible candidates’ names are being bandied about today as possibly entering the race, but they all suffer from the same problems: lack of name ID and fundraising ability.

A contested primary race likely costs anywhere from $2 million to $5 million depending on various factors, and of the names I’ve heard so far I question whether or not any of them can raise the money.

McDaniel’s departure completely changes the face of Arkansas politics and it will be some time before we completely know how his decision affects the political landscape. Rest assured, there be many more columns to come about the fight for the Democratic nomination.

2014 is going to be a wild ride.