McDaniel Banked A Million Before Scandal Broke

Attorney General and Democratic gubernatorial candidate Dustin McDaniel filed his campaign report today with the Secretary of State – a reminder that despite his deep troubles due to his inappropriateness, he is the only candidate that has raised any money of significance.

In the final quarter of 2012, he raised $410,527.45 which puts his total raised over $1.4 million.  He has spent a total of $337,152.24, including hiring a campaign staff of eight people.  This positions his campaign with over a million dollars in the bank and an organization in place.

Obviously, this is a good spot to be in as he noted during his “no more shoes to drop” press conference last week, but there are a few notes to this.

First, almost all of this money came in before Talk Business broke the news on December 18 that he admitted to having an “inappropriate” relationship with Hot Springs attorney Andi Davis although he did have around $56,000 trickle in after that date. Most of that appeared to be over the Christmas holiday, which could also be a factor.

However, the big test will be: Can he continue to raise money this quarter with the news of his affair along with sinking polls numbers?  Additionally, most of the low-hanging fruit has been picked, meaning the more difficult fundraising begins now even without his problems.

The organization he has already put in place has to continue to be funded.  The eight staff members will need to continue to be paid.  The consultant's bills will keep coming.  Last quarter, he spent around $200,000 and unless he continues to raise at least as much, his war chest will begin to burn with over 14 months to go before the primary and almost two years before the general election.

Campaigns are much easier to grow than they are to shrink, so this burn rate will be important.  It is of note that it would likely take him over a year to burn through his million dollars in the bank before having to borrow or contribute any of his own money.  This could be a factor in his decision to stay in or not.  It is much easier to spend other people's money than your own, even when you know your candidacy is now a long-shot.

One additional note:  hidden among the pages of contributions from the standard fare of Arkansas Democratic political donors is Jeff Rosenzweig, the attorney in the high-profile West Memphis 3 case and, of course, counsel to Andi Davis.