Weekend Digest: The Economy Dips, But A Kickstarter Becomes Mainstream

ECONOMY MAY DIP AGAIN, BUT NO SWOON
That's the grim but not too grim analysis in a Bloomberg News report.

A former Federal Reserve researcher who is chief economist at RDQ Economics LLC in New York says,“I don’t think the slowdown will be any more consequential than the past two years.  John Ryding also predicts, “There are positives out there in the economy. We’ll avoid a recession.”

With stocks dramatically up and down, factory orders stalling, and poor job growth, forecasts for economic growth in the third quarter are declining.

Following the jobs report, Michael Feroli, chief U.S. economist at JPMorgan Chase & Co. in New York, lowered his forecast for third-quarter economic growth to 2 percent from 3 percent. He sees the economy expanding 2.5 percent this quarter.

Allen Sinai, chief executive officer of Decision Economics in New York, bumped up his odds of a recession next year to 15 percent from 10 percent.

Mitt Romney, the presumptive Republican nominee in November’s presidential election, seized on the jobs figures to attack Barack Obama. “It is now clear to everyone that President Obama’s policies have failed to achieve their goals,” he said in a statement.

You can read more about the Bloomberg analysis including commodity prices, chain-store sales and the Obama administration's moves in response to a decline in job growth at this link.

INDIA IS NOT THE NEXT CHINA – AND THAT'S A GOOD THING
Forbes magazine takes a deep look at the business climate in India, one of the planet's most populous nations.

Often, India and heavily-populated China are compared due to their rapid GDP growth rates and for other factors.

Forbes reporter Chris Barth writes:

Investors should stop thinking about India as China 2.0. There are good reasons to be bullish on India, precisely because it is different from China.

While China is all about exports, India is an economy that thrives on domestic consumption. With fears of European contagion and anemic worldwide growth affecting ­exporters like China and Brazil, fund managers have been looking more seriously at India.

The big story in India continues to be its demographics. It will overtake China as the largest population in the world by 2030 and has one of the youngest populations among emerging-market nations. Nearly half its citizens are under 25.

“Most developed markets are in ­decline, especially Japan. China and others are past their peak,” says Prashant Khemka, managing director and chief investment officer at Goldman Sachs Asset ­Management India.

Given its burgeoning population of working-age people, India’s biggest opportunity is also its biggest threat. Will its economy be able to provide enough jobs?

With much attention on the next moves from China — moving jobs back to the U.S. or seeking Chinese investment in America — it seems like India has almost been forgotten. This articleantique cigarette boxes