Trucking report reflects ‘renewed anxiety’ about economy
by June 27, 2011 4:18 pm 61 views
The May tonnage report from the American Trucking Associations provides another uncomfortable sign about the pace of national economic recovery.
May’s seasonally adjusted Truck Tonnage Index dipped 2.3%, after falling a revised 0.6% in April. Compared with May 2010, tonnage climbed 2.7%, the smallest year-over-year gain since February 2010. In April, the tonnage index was 4.8% above a year earlier, and the March index was up 6.5%.
“Truck tonnage over the last four months shows that the economy definitely hit a soft patch this spring,” ATA Chief Economist Bob Costello said in a statement. “With our index falling in three of the last four months totaling 3.7%, it is clear why there is some renewed anxiety over the economic recovery.”
Costello says higher fuel prices as continued economic displacement from the March earthquake in Japan as factors for the slowdown.
“With oil prices falling and some of the Japan-related auto supply problems ending, I believe this was a soft patch and not a slide back into recession, and we should see better, but not great, economic activity in the months ahead,” he said.
According to the ATA, trucking serves as a barometer of the U.S. economy, representing 67% of tonnage carried in 2010 by all modes of domestic freight transportation, including manufactured and retail goods. Trucks hauled more than 8.8 billion tons of freight in 2009. Motor carriers collected $544.4 billion, or 81% of total revenue earned by all transport modes in 2009.
The June 24 U.S. GDP report also indicated a decline in economic activity. The first quarter 2011 U.S. GDP grew 1.9%, down from the 3.1% during the fourth quarter of 2010 and considerably lower than the 3.7% growth in the first quarter of 2010.
However, the quarterly increase marks the 7th consecutive quarter of GDP growth, according to the figures released by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis.
The GDP grew at an annual rate of 2.9% in 2010, -2.6% in 2009 and 0% in 2008.
Analysis of 44 economist forecasters surveyed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia predicts the 2011 GDP will be 2.7%, down from a previous prediction of 3.2%. The forecasters also lowered their predictions for GDP and employment gains in the 2012-2014 period.
In a recent report, the ATA said the trucking sector may not see tonnage increase to pre-recession levels until 2016. The ATA reported that general freight traffic fell 22.5% between 2007 and 2009 before improving 9.4% in 2010. Freight traffic is estimated to grow at an average rate of 4.1% between 2011 and 2016, according to the ATA.