Talk Business Poll: Views noted on Legislature, Beebe, Pryor, health care

A new Talk Business-Hendrix College Poll, conducted April 21, 2011, reveals the views of Arkansans on many things, including the job performance of the Arkansas Legislature, implementation of health care reform and the approval ratings of Gov. Mike Beebe and U.S. Sen. Mark Pryor, D-Ark.

The poll surveyed 582 statewide voters, and Dr. Jay Barth, with the Hendrix College Department of Politics and International Relations, helped craft and analyze the poll.

ARKANSAS LEGISLATURE
Q: Do you approve or disapprove of the job the Arkansas legislature did during its recently completed session?
29%  Approve
41%  Disapprove
30%  Don’t Know

Q: During the session, the Arkansas General Assembly completed a map to redraw congressional district boundaries.  Do you approve or disapprove of that plan?
29%  Approve
47%  Disapprove
24%  Don’t Know

"I think it was a messy session, especially in those closing weeks related to Congressional redistricting. I think there is maybe some frustration — it was not the prettiest series of headlines for the legislature," Barth said in this report.

He also contends that the competition between Democrats and Republicans at the state legislature may be reflected in the lower approval numbers. The state legislature had its most balanced partisan count with Democrats representing 54 seats in the 100-member House and 20 seats in the 35-member State Senate. Republicans represented 45 House seats and 15 Senate seats.

"For the first time in the Arkansas legislature’s history, we really saw partisanship begin to trump other forces that have mattered a lot before like geography," Barth said.

The survey also asked voters who they thought was in control of state government.

Q: Who do you think is in control of the Arkansas Legislature? That is – which political party do you think is in control of state government – the Republican Party or the Democratic Party?
55%  Democratic Party
26%  Republican Party
19%  Don’t Know

Nearly two years ago, a Talk Business Poll asked the same question to a statewide voter audience. At the time, 68% said they felt the Democrats were in charge versus 11% who said Republicans were in control.

Does Democratic control of the state legislature translate to blame for the General Assembly’s low job approval numbers? Barth doesn’t think so.

"I think the question was very much directed over the last few months and what the performance has been," said Barth. "It’s also a test of political knowledge. Do Arkansans really know who their elected officials are? Clearly, Republicans have more influence than they did two or three years ago."

HEALTH CARE REFORM
The recent legislative debate over the state implementation of federal health care reform shows a divided electorate, but new polling data suggests Arkansas voters prefer state control over waiting on a U.S. Supreme Court ruling.

In the 88th General Assembly, a late-session debate over state control of health insurance exchanges being planned with federal money nearly derailed legislative business.

State lawmakers agreed to steer the planning of the exchanges to an interim study committee while allowing a $1 million federal grant to be included in the Arkansas Insurance Department budget.

One of the primary arguments for delaying state planning was made by Republicans who suggested Arkansas regulators wait for the federal courts to make a final ruling on the national health care law’s constitutionality.

Opponents of delay, primarily Democrats, argued the state needed to move forward with planning to beat a January 2013 deadline or risk letting the feds dictate Arkansas’ health insurance exchange regulations.

Q: During the session, state lawmakers considered legislation allowing implementation of the new federal health reform law in Arkansas. Some opposed the legislation saying it was important to wait to see if the federal courts overturned President Obama’s reforms, while others said it was important for Arkansas to move forward in designing a system that makes the most sense for the state rather than risk the federal government doing it for us. Which stance do you most agree with?
38%     It is important to wait for the federal courts to decide.
49.5%  It is important to design a state plan rather than allowing the federal government to develop it.
12.5%  Don’t Know

Barth said the "local control" framing was effective for supporters as it saw stronger support from both Democrats and Republicans.

"I didn’t know what the results would be because I didn’t know what the balance would be between what appears to be two pretty strong frames: obviously, a resistance to so-called Obamacare, which is unpopular in Arkansas, and this local control argument, which really trumps that," Barth said.

FOSTER CARE RULING
Arkansans also disapproved of a recent state Supreme Court ruling that struck down Act 1, which prohibited unmarried, cohabitating couples from fostering or adopting children.

Q: The Arkansas Supreme Court recently overturned Act 1, the initiative approved by Arkansas voters in 2008, which barred the placement of foster children or adoptive children in a home where cohabitating adults reside.  The Court said that the law violated Arkansans’ right to privacy.  Do you approve or disapprove of the Court’s action?
38%     Approve of the ruling by the Court
49.5%  Disapprove of the ruling by the Court
12.5%  Don’t Know

Barth said the disapproval level found in this poll was substantially less than the 57% approval margin by which Act 1 passed in 2008 and could signal shifting public opinion.



"It does indicate that the court may have been a little out in front of the people of Arkansas on that issue," Barth noted in this report. "It does potentially show a little bit of attitude change over the last few years on that issue."

BEEBE, PRYOR APPROVAL
Gov. Mike Beebe maintained his high job approval rating, while Sen. Pryor appears to be battling a voting public frustrated at Washington.

Beebe’s job approval rating ranked at 67%. Only 22% disapproved of the job the Governor is doing, while 11% had no opinion.

In a Talk Business-Hendrix Poll taken during the Legislative session, Beebe had a 62% job approval rating with only 19% disapproving of his job performance.

"Beebe’s numbers are amazing," Barth said in this story.

"Beebe crosses partisan lines where a majority of Republicans approve of his performance and obviously an overwhelming percentage of Democrats. It is geographically broad, age, ethnicity — it’s across all groups," he added.

Pryor, who is not up for re-election until 2014, may be the next big target for Arkansas Republicans who gained two Democratic House seats in 2010. In the poll, Pryor received a 40% job approval rating, with 36.5% voicing disapproval of his job performance. 23.5% did not have an opinion on Pryor’s job performance.

Could Pryor be suffering from the forces that sunk U.S. Sen. Blanche Lincoln, D-Ark., in her 2010 re-election campaign?

"I think to some degree he is. Certainly, he has become a polarizing figure because basically all things political — especially now related to Washington — are polarizing," said Barth. "Assuming he runs for re-election, we’re going to see a tough Republican opponent. … I think the national Republican Party is going to see this as a winnable seat mainly due to the poor performance of Democrats in national elections over the last couple of cycles."

Barth added that Pryor is in better shape than Lincoln since the election is still two cycles away, the popularity of his family’s name, and the fact that he has some better numbers in Republican-rich northwest Arkansas than most Democrats normally pull.