Congressional Redistricting: The aftermath

Editor’s note: Roby Brock, with our content partner Talk Business, wrote this report. He can be reached at [email protected]

After Wednesday’s move by Democrats to successfully push their "Fayetteville to the Fourth" Congressional redistricting plan out of the House State Agencies Committee, there are a variety of questions and comments to pull into a cohesive post.

First, there were strong reactions from GOP leaders.

Using phrases like "gerrymander," "abuse of power" and "partisan machine politics," Arkansas GOP chairman Doyle Webb said he’s prepared to file a lawsuit to challenge the map if it passes the legislature.

“The Republican Party had hoped the Legislature could complete this critical process in a bi-partisan manner, but if litigation is necessary we are prepared to file suit to protect the interests of all Arkansans,” Webb said.

(As a side note of commentary, we would suggest that whatever plan is passed will be challenged in court by some interest group not satisfied with the outcome. The legal parameters of these cases is a post for another day.)
 
3rd District Congressman Steve Womack, R-Rogers, called the "Fayetteville to the Fourth" plan "absurd," even though he stands to gain politically from the redrawn lines.

Womack said, “With this plan, we have a very low seed that is apparently still in the game against several top seed teams. You can say that this redefines March madness."

Womack said there are many good plans that have been floated, and he has been committed to staying out of the discussion — with one exception.

“I’ve been on record all along during this as saying that all I will do is cry foul against something that is silly,” Womack explained.

THE HOUSE VOTE
Attention now turns to the House floor. Rep. Clark Hall (D-Marvell), chair of the House State Agencies Committee, says he hopes to run his redistricting bill on Friday. Democrats have a 54-45 advantage over Republicans in the House, so they have the power to ride roughshod over the GOP.

Do they have the political will and can they hold their votes?

The Legislative Black Caucus leader, Rep. Tracy Steele, D-Little Rock, says of the caucus — "we’re on board."

Republicans have to peel 4 votes off the Democratic rolls and here are some likely targets.

In the House committee, Rep. John Vines, D-Hot Springs, was silent during the roll call vote suggesting that he may either abstain or be a potential "no" vote. Of course, Democrats could hold him, too.

Rep. Uvalde Lindsey, D-Fayetteville, was apparently prepared to testify against Hall’s bill in committee before the vote. He says he is "a firm no" and that he isn’t changing his mind.

Rep. Greg Leding, D-Fayetteville, is considered a potential peel-off for the GOP on this vote, but Leding says "he’s thinking about it."

"We fit geographically better in the Third, but everybody has a connection to Fayetteville, and we’ll make it work wherever we are. Fayetteville will be just fine," Leding said in a text message Wednesday night.

Assuming all 3 of those votes could be persuaded, a fourth unknown Democratic vote would have to step forward.

LEADERSHIP OPINION
House Speaker Robert Moore, D-Arkansas City, who usually doesn’t cast a vote while presiding, tells Talk Business he would cast the decisive 51st vote if necessary.

"The plan that the committee came out of here with today, I’ve obviously looked at it," said Speaker Moore. "I’m content that this is a good proposal."

House Minority Leader John Burris, R-Harrison, admits the votes are in the Democrats’ favor.

"It’s kind of hard to have a strategy. They have a strategy and that kind of dictates ours," he said.

When asked if he thought the Democrats could hold at least 51 votes in the House, Burris added, "I think it’s going to be tough … I think people know a bad map when they see it and I think there’s certainly conversations going on with members now that have a lot of concerns about it — across the board and not even confined to the Third District."

Burris also contends that if Hall’s plan does pass the House, he thinks the 4-4 partisan split on the Senate State Agencies Committee will make for a tough hurdle to clear. He suggested that lawmakers may see more debate in the Senate because of the structure of the committee.

SENATE MOVES
In the State Senate, Democrats enjoy a 20-15 advantage over their GOP counterparts. A minimum of 18 votes will be required to pass a redistricting plan, so Democrats can only afford to lose two votes to hold the "Fayetteville to the Fourth" plan intact.

Sen. Sue Madison, D-Fayetteville, chairs the Senate State Agencies Committee. Madison tells Talk Business that she’s not taking a public position in order to ensure a fair hearing on all maps in her Senate committee.

However, Madison said she’s "open-minded" on the proposal and has heard fairly equally from both sides for and against the "Fayetteville to the Fourth" plan.

"I do get the sense that there are more people in Fayetteville who are giving this a second look," said Madison. "I know that the Fourth District is expected to continue losing population and the Fayetteville area is expected to continue growing population, so I think in some ways this could mitigate this disparity that the Fourth has population-wise."

A potential swing vote in the Senate: Sen. Larry Teague, D-Nashville. He’s running for re-election next year in what will be a redrawn Senate district and he may be a viable candidate for the Senate Pro Temp position.

He says he’s "not fond" of the House plan, but is tight-lipped on what he might support.

State Sen. Johnny Key, R-Mountain Home, intends to run his plan in Senate State Agencies on Thursday (Mar. 24).

POLITICAL CONSIDERATIONS
What’s really at the core of the House plan, Key’s plan, and others are whether Congressional Districts will be redrawn in a way that mathematically suggests Republicans will have a 3-to-1 advantage over Democrats or a 2-to-2 draw.

The "Fayetteville to the Fourth" plan gives Democrats an advantage in the 1st and 4th Districts. By adding southeast Arkansas counties to and removing Baxter County from the First, Democrats pick up voter performance there.

Likewise the 4th District picks up the rich Democratic votes in Washington County (and some in Johnson and Franklin) to add to their base. Some question if there are too many liberal Democratic votes in Fayetteville to allow it to control a Democratic primary — a real challenge for center-right Democratic 4th District Congressman Mike Ross in the next cycle.

Clearly, the 3rd District remains solidly Republican with the Baxter County gain and the loss of Democratic votes from Washington County.

Of interest, the changes in the 2nd District. Under the 2-2 scenario, Democrats have effectively conceded the Second to Republican Congressman Tim Griffin by adding Hot Springs Village to the Congressional District and not shifting the large GOP vote in the city of Searcy into the First.

Key’s plan gives Republicans advantages in 3 Districts — the 1st, 2nd and 3rd, but leaves the 4th in more favorable Democratic shape.