Talk Business Poll: Boozman continues to best Lincoln

The latest Talk Business/Hendrix College Poll shows voters are largely unswayed by several prominent issues churning in the U.S. Senate race between U.S. Sen. Blanche Lincoln and U.S. Rep. John Boozman.

In a survey of 573 likely Arkansas voters conducted Sept. 16, Boozman led Lincoln 56-29%. Independent Trevor Drown registered with 5% of the vote, while Green Party nominee John Gray pulled 2%. Undecided voters accounted for 8% in the survey, which had a margin of error of +/- 4%.

The poll also tested four different high-profile messages being utilized by the Lincoln and Boozman campaigns in the race. The four issues are earmarks, health care, the national sales tax, and Lincoln’s chairmanship of the Senate Agriculture Committee.

“With little exception, this race is basically static from our July Talk Business Poll and the messages being deployed by both campaigns are not changing voter opinions,” said Talk Business Executive Editor Roby Brock.



Dr. Jay Barth, with the Hendrix College Department of Politics and International Relations, helped craft and analyze the latest poll. He offered the following analysis:
• This poll of the U.S. Senate race reiterates the findings of a series of other polls across the period since the nominees were determined. Congressman Boozman has consistently been above 50% when Arkansas voters have expressed their preferences in polls and incumbent U.S. Senator Blanche Lincoln has been in the high-20%’s or low 30%’s. Our poll finds that same result.

• In her advertising, Lincoln has emphasized the importance of her leadership roles in the Senate for the state. First among these is her service as the state’s first chair of the Committee on Agriculture, Nutrition, and Forestry. Our poll indicates that only a quarter of Arkansans find this chairmanship something that would make them more likely to vote for Lincoln. And, most of those voters had already expressed support for the incumbent. Among undecided voters, only 11% said it made them more likely to support her while 29% said it made them less likely to support the Senator; most undecideds were indifferent to the issue of leadership on agricultural issues.

• During their debate last week and in her campaign’s advertising, Lincoln has attacked Boozman for his support for a “fair tax” that would eliminate the federal income tax but would replace it with a large sales tax on purchased goods in the country. Our polling indicates that this issue also has not yet resonated with the state’s voters, but there is some promise here for Lincoln among undecided voters.

• Indeed, a plurality of our overall sample indicate they are more likely to vote for Boozman because of his stance. But, looking inside the numbers, more undecided voters (43%) agree with Lincoln on the issue, while 23% agree with Boozman; the remainder are unmoved by the issue. This issue does show some hope in bringing undecided voters back for Lincoln, but only 12% of current Boozman supporters are less likely to vote for him because of his support for the issue at this point.

• Boozman has attacked Lincoln’s support of health care reform legislation in his own communications with voters. Our polling indicates, not surprisingly, that most Lincoln supporters favored her ultimate stance on health care reform while almost all Boozman supporters agree with the Congressman. Supporters of Green Party candidate Gray are pro-health care reform while majorities of voters supporting the independent candidate Drown and who are undecided side with Boozman. All told, this is a telling advantage for Boozman at this point.

• Boozman’s support is solid across the state, as his majority support shows itself in all four congressional districts, including Lincoln’s native 1st district and her home district, the 2nd.

The poll was conducted by Talk Business Research and Hendrix College. The poll, which has a margin of error of +/- 4%, was completed using IVR survey technology Sept. 16, among 537 registered Arkansas voters statewide who indicated they were "likely" to vote in the Nov. 2, general election. Our weighting assumptions include adjustments for age, ethnicity and Congressional districts.

Link here for more detailed survey analysis from Barth, and link here for a PDF document listing the survey results.