Arkansas’ 1st District could swing Republican

A new Talk Business Poll shows that Republican cross-winds are swirling at this juncture of the Arkansas election cycle even in traditional Democratic strongholds.

The Talk Business Poll, conducted by Talk Business Research and Hendrix College, shows 1st District Congressional Republican nominee Rick Crawford with a 16-point lead over his Democratic opponent, Chad Causey. This is a Congressional District that historically supports the Democratic candidate. Causey is the former chief of staff to U.S. Rep. Marion Berry, who announced earlier this year he would not seek re-election to the 1st District.

In a survey conducted Aug. 17, Crawford leads Causey 48-32% among 630 likely Arkansas voters in the district. Green Party nominee Ken Adler received 4% of support from those surveyed, while undecided voters stood at 16%.

"This is a truly dramatic result that I believe sets the stage for a very favorable election climate for Republicans in Arkansas. For Democrats, it is a clear signal that this fall’s election may be the toughest landscape they’ve ever faced in the First," Talk Business editor Roby Brock noted in this report.

Due to the unprecedented nature of these results for a Republican nominee, Talk Business conducted a second field poll in the First District on Aug. 19. While the sample size was slightly smaller — 481 likely voter respondents — the results were identical with Republican Rick Crawford polling at 48% and Democrat Chad Causey at 32%.

Dr. Jay Barth, with the Hendrix College Department of Politics and International Relations, helped craft and analyze the polls. He offered the following observations from the results:
• This poll shows the breadth and depth of the pro-Republican winds in Arkansas in 2010. The area covered by CD1 has not elected a Republican to Congress since Reconstruction and a victory here would be extraordinary.

• The decision of national Republicans to invest on Crawford’s behalf with spending in the district, announced this past week, appears not to be an attempt to win a long-shot race but instead seems like a legitimate attempt to win a seat that could create a Republican majority in the House of Representatives. This is a crucial step because it will lessen the expected resource advantage favoring Causey for the fall campaign.

• Large chunks of the electorate are unable to form an opinion of the two candidates. Just at 45% of the electorate lacks an opinion of each candidate. Thus, the fall campaign will be crucial in shaping the final results.

• Republicans could be successful in unfavorably tying Chad Causey to his former boss, incumbent Rep. Marion Berry, and to Washington more generally. The recent news about Crawford’s past bankruptcy is indicative of the type of issue that could shape voters’ perceptions of the Republican as they are getting to know him.

• Crawford’s lead results, first, from the fact that Republicans — long in the minority in the district — are more unified behind their nominee. 84% of self-identified Republicans support Crawford, while 73% of Democrats presently support Causey. In particular, Causey is underperforming with African-American voters in the district. Second, and even more important, independents are leaning strongly towards the Republican (54-21% with 20% undecided).