Fort Smith metro jobless rate jumps to 8.9% in January

The unemployment rate in the Fort Smith metro area jumped to 8.9% in January, a full percentage point higher than December 2009 and resulting in a record number of unemployed in the area.

All Arkansas’ metro areas saw a big jobless rate jump in January, with even Northwest Arkansas posting a 6.8% rate compared to a 5.7% jobless rate in December.

The U.S. rate in January was 9.7%, down from 10% in December. Arkansas’ rate was 7.6% in January, unchanged from December and up over the 6.5% in January 2009.

According to figures released Friday (Mar. 19) by the federal Bureau of Labor Statistics, the preliminary report shows record number of unemployed in the Fort Smith metro area at 11,929, 11.6% higher than January 2009 and 65.4% higher than January 2008. The caveat is that the December and January numbers are preliminary and will likely see revised changes. However, the revisions rarely afford major downward (positive) changes to the data.

The number of employed totaled 122,018 in January 2010, down from the 127,364 in January 2009 and down considerably from the 2009 peak of 131,119 in September.

Fort Smith metro manufacturing employment continues a downward trend, with an estimated 21,200 employed in the sector in January, down 6.6% from January 2009 — and down 30.9% from a decade ago when January 2001 manufacturing employment stood at 30,700.

While the big jump doesn’t look good, it may not be as bad as it looks, said Jeff Collins, economist for The Compass Report. He said the numbers likely reflect the reduction of jobs that end after the busy holiday retail period.

“This is not good news, but it’s not unexpected nor does it mean that the local economy is deteriorating faster than the state or national economy,” Collins said.

He added that high jobless rates at the local, state and national level also support the his belief that an economic recovery may not result in a hiring recovery.

“Even though output is starting to recover, and we’re seeing that, we’re not seeing that translate into increased hiring, and, quite frankly, hiring lags because they (businesses) are more fully utilizing the labor they have instead of taking the risk of making new hires,” Collins said.

Further analysis of the report shows big changes in the Fort Smith metro area civilian labor force and number of employed. The metro civilian labor force is estimated at 133,947 in January, down 2.9% from January 2009 and down 5.4% from a November 2009 peak of 141,595. Changes in the labor force numbers can come from people moving into our out of a trade area or from people who have given up on finding employment or have exhausted their time in unemployment system.

Federal officials define the civilian labor force as: “All persons in the civilian noninstitutional population classified as either employed or unemployed.” However, the labor force does not include seasonal workers off work during the survey period (temp workers, for example), and those who are classified as “discouraged workers.” Such workers are defined as those “who do not look for work because they believe no jobs are available in the area or that no jobs are available for which they can qualify.”

ARKANSAS METRO AREAS
Fayetteville-Springdale-Rogers
January 2010: 6.8%
January 2009: 5.8%
December 2009: 5.7%

Fort Smith
January 2010: 8.9%
January 2009: 7.7%
December 2009: 7.9%

Hot Springs
January 2010: 8.6%
January 2009: 7.2%
December 2009: 7.5%

Jonesboro
January 2010: 8%
January 2009: 6.5%
December 2009: 7%

Little Rock-North Little Rock-Conway
January 2010: 7.4%
January 2009: 5.9%
December 2009: 6.5%

Memphis-West Memphis
January 2010: 11.3%
January 2009: 8.7%
December 2009: 10.3%

Pine Bluff
January 2010: 10.5%
January 2009: 9.4%
December 2009: 9.7%

Texarkana
January 2010: 7.8%
January 2009: 5.8%
December 2009: 6.5%

FORT SMITH METRO AREA HISTORY
Past annual average unemployment rates
2008: 4.8%
2007: 5.3%
2006: 4.9%
2005: 4.5%
2004: 5.2%
2003: 5.5%
2002: 5%
2001: 4.2%
2000: 3.7%